Sometimes I run. Sometimes I hide. Sometimes I buy goals just because it’s Friday night and I can’t wait. As my diary last weekend illustrated, I have patience issues. Sometimes it is in your interest to sit on your hands. Last weekend I learned (not for the first time) that sometimes it pays to do nothing. Having made two bastard calls before 3pm last Saturday, this week I was determined not to pop my cork too early. I always do, you see.
From a betting perspective I decided to give not only the Everton v Newcastle game the cold shoulder but dirty looks to Europe in general (a baby-sized treble aside, screw you Milan). This week I found clean profit in the filthy Championship. The home of goals, two thirds of Tuesday’s games had +2.5 goals. One of these was Peterborough v Bristol City. A penalty? In the 93rd minute? With my reputation? Terry Waite you are VERY late. Another one was Blackburn v Barnsley, the Steve’s Keanophiles coming back from 1-0 down to win with five minutes to go. Finding an angle paid off, I was on a skinny priced Blackburn to win by one goal at a fat price. Like a skinny man with a fat bird. One game I didn’t have to enhance the price of a home win on was Blackpool v Middlesbrough. Boro ended up on the end of a 90 minute fingering and the 10/11 I backed Blackpool at was a big strong proud beautiful independent woman of a price.
Last Weeks Bets:
Blackpool v Boro - 1.5 pts: BPOOL TO WIN – 10/11 +2.86, 0.5 pts: INCE SCORE FIRST – 7/1 -0.5
Peterborough v Bristol City – 2 pts: OVER 2.5 GOALS – 8/11 +3.45
Blackburn v Barnsley – 1 pt: BLACKBURN TO WIN BY 1 GOAL – 13/5 +3.6
Ac Milan, PSG & Shakhtar Donetsk – 0.5 points: TREBLE – 9/4 -0.5
Stake 5.5, Returns 9.91, Profit/loss: +4.41 (80%)
So my working week was good. Back-to-back profits (30% last weekend and 80% this midweek) leave me feeling not only sweet like chocolate boy but ready for some proper domestic battery this weekend. I’m going big here. My confidence is up and so is my tail. European games out of the way, here are my picks for the action in England this weekend. Up yours Brussels and your EU sized pints. Here are my picks for the weekend. Let’s go:
Friday 21st - Blackburn v Middlesbrough
I came unstuck last Friday keen to start off my bets for the weekend but this is a third game in six days for both of these teams and Blackburn’s squad is bigger than a gay dog’s heart. This fixture congestion hurts them much less than Middlesbrough. Blackburn scored in every game so far this season and have plenty of creativity in midfield. Against a side that let in seven goals in their last two away games, the league leaders should be giving the dirty dog from Middlesbrough one on Friday night. Ok, Blackburn only won their last three home games by a single goal but wins are wins. Boro are still pointless away, let in three at Millwall and four at Blackpool I fancy Blackburn will create (and take) enough chances to win this game. Ten million pound man Jordan Rhodes has scored 5 in 5 this season and his 37 goals last season included five hat-tricks, with this in mind, against such a slag of a defence, I point blank refuse to not to breastfeed with the million dollar baby here.
1.25 pts: BLACKBURN TO WIN – 5/6 Bet365
1 pt: RHODES TO SCORE ANYTIME – 5/4 StanJames
0.25 pts: RHODES TO SCORE HAT-TRICK – 28/1 Stan James
Saturday 22nd - West Brom v Reading
I went to Reading festival twice in two years. The first time I liked it. The second time I took my bird, got beat up in a moshpit, set fire to my tent and went home with the hump. Drugs are for mugs. Reading go to West Brom festival on Saturday and I expect they will get their tent set on fire. Forgetting the 3-0 beating they got at Fulham last weekend (down to ten men for 55 minutes) West Brom have beaten Everton (2-0) and Liverpool (3-0) at home and drew at Tottenham. Reading on the other hand not only have a sh*t festival full of Goths but got honked twice with no condom by Chelsea and Spurs after a decent point away at Stoke. Everyone gets a point at Stoke so finish all your drugs and put any hopes of Reading getting anything here in a tent, zip it up and burn it. West Brom are missing Odemwingie who has been made to work in a pawn shop in Woolwich for a week for being naughty last weekend but have decent options to replace him. I expect West Brom to keep a clean sheet here (7 clean sheets in 9 home games) and win.
0.4 points: WEST BROM TO WIN “TO NIL” - 21/10 Sky Bet
0.6 points: WEST BROM TO WIN – 5/6 Stan James
Newcastle v Norwich
Patterns are big this season. Block colours and tribal patterns: bang on trend. As are ruffles. And hats. God I love London fashion week. Vivenne Westwood looks like she stinks of piss though, surely that can’t be in? The fashion set will still fawn over her though and in turn, she will be back next year smelling of even stronger piss. A similar thing happened to Alan Pardew last year. Give a prick like him Manager Of The Year and as sure as hellfire here he is this season acting like more of a prick than ever before. He thinks it’s cool. Christ Alan, just be yourself, that’s what’s really cool...
Here’s a pattern: Norwich have drawn their last three games (since getting sucked off 5-0 at Fulham) and Newcastle have drawn their last two (since not turning up at Chelsea). Ignore that sh*t. Although this is Newcastle’s third game in six days, Ben Arfa, Cabaye and the two strikers Rhythm and Blues have been rested since Monday. Combine that with the fact Norwich haven’t kept a clean sheet away from home since they were in the Championship and the teams Newcastle have played so far (Everton, Villa, Chelsea, Spurs) are all better than Cat from Red Dwarf’s mob I see nothing but a home win here. Newcastle will see the draw at home to Villa as two dropped points and resting an entire first-team strikeforce for this one tells me they want three points real bad or Pardew might push someone.
1.5 points: NEWCASTLE TO WIN - 8/11 with William Hill
0.5 points: NEWCASTLE TO WIN (-1) - 2/1 with Paddy Power
West Ham v Sunderland
The little black cats have fired blanks in 4 of their last 7 away games. Against a side who haven’t let in a goal at home this season, the same bet that brought me profit last Saturday: Under 2.5 goals appeals. Last weekend against Norwich, West Ham’s lack of quality up top was obvious and against a Sunderland side who restricted Arsenal to three shots on target at the Emirates I think a lack of goals is a real possibility here. Although only a few games in, Sunderland games are averaging 2 goals and West Ham games only 1.75. Naughty. Put your pants on you’re nicked.
1 pt: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 20/23 Bet Victor
0.25 pts: NO GOALSCORER - 10/1 Sky Bet
Peterborough v Wolves
I would actually back a pack of 11 actual Wolf animals to win this. When a team have played 6 lost 6 there is nothing you can say or do that will make me fancy them. Wolves have been around for dozens of years and are related to the dog family. Cats. Dogs. Foxes. Wolves. Humans. That’s evolution. We are all a bit Wolf. Add to this the fascination with Wolves that teenagers now have due to the success of the Twilight saga and the fact that it’s a full moon Saturday and you can expect odds of 5/4 to be chased into the woods and eaten alive before 3pm Saturday. Wolves have won their last two and will target three points here much the same as the kids targeted JD Sports during last summer’s troubles.
1.5 points: WOLVES TO WIN – 5/4 Coral
Sunday 23rd - Liverpool v Man United
I’ve never been to a Liverpool United game. I hear they shit in cups up there and chuck them at each other. Why the fuck would I want to do that when I can stay in and actually get paid for doing the exact same thing. Follow my live webcast via my twitter feed if you’re interested. Another man who has been shitting in cups for fun recently is Robin Van Persie. He’s been shitting in cups left right and centre since the start of last season. He shat in Pepe Reina’s cup twice in March and I fully expect him to do it again on Sunday.
After being shut out by Everton, Manchester United have banged in ten goals in their last three league games and Liverpool have conceded eight. This one ended 1-1 last season and United backers should remember that they haven’t beaten Liverpool at Anfield since 2007. Both teams to score has occurred in six of the last seven meetings between these haters and I fancy both teams will score again. If United go in at half-time in front I expect Liverpool (behind at HT in 3 out of 4 league games this season) to disappear for fifteen minutes, come back with cups full of shit and perhaps nick a point.
0.25 pts: RVP TO SCORE FIRST – 6/1 Coral
2 pts: RVP TO SCORE ANYTIME – 2/1 with Coral
0.25pts: HT UTD FT DRAW - 16/1 Bodog
1.5 pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 8/11 bet365
Man City v Arsenal
Man City’s games this season have seen shitloads of goals: 5-5-4-4-2-5. Arsenal’s defence (plus Carl Jenkinson) has only let in a howler from Sczeszny and an absolute supermodel of a penalty in Europe so far this season. That said; who have they played? Sunderland (3 goals this season), Stoke (4), Liverpool (3) and Montpelier (who caused them trouble on Tuesday). Arsenal spent last Saturday sucking Southampton’s tits and have a confident squad that will go to Man City to play football and win. Therefore Man City will. The battles all over the pitch don’t look good for Arsenal and let’s take a moment to remember that Man City won 18 out of 19 at home last season. That shit cray. Add one AGGUUUEEERRROOO and odds of 4/5 look very strong at Welterweight. Although Man City games have brought goals so far, they will keep a clean sheet sooner or later and this one ended 1-0 last season. Should be tight again, Arsenal won’t be getting groomed 8-2 this season that’s for certain.
1.5 pts: MAN CITY TO WIN – 4/5 Coral
0.5 pts: MAN CITY TO WIN BY ONE GOAL – 3/1 Ladbrokes
Best of luck with your bets this weekend everybody. My picks both last weekend and in the week made me nice money. A hat-trick would be nice. Let’s do this.
Footnote: Few things more out of order than a fat chick with no tits.
Please let me know what you think on twitter @Drtwerp