FPL Player Analysis – 14 Players Who Will Score Fewer Points this Season
Following on from our look at last season’s underperforming FPL players, we have a few predictions for this year’s regressions. The list is packed with familiar names who, for one reason or another, are likely to score fewer points this season (at least in our opinion).
Being featured on this list certainly doesn’t make the player a bad option (although some of them are most certainly bad options), it simply means they might not hit the same heights of last season.
Dean Henderson (5.5) – Manchester United
We kick things off with a bold shout, but a well-founded one. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has a big call to make between the sticks, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see David de Gea starting the season as first choice.
Even if Henderson does get the nod, he will likely need to keep more than last seasons’ 13 clean sheets to make up for the reduced bonus points on offer for him at United. 160 points placed him second among keepers last season and will be a tall order to replicate, even at a better club.
Martin Dubravka (5.5) – Newcastle
Newcastle’s no1 ranked sixth among keepers with 143 points last season. He made 139 saves, 11 more than any other goalkeeper, and kept a respectable 11 clean sheets.
This season he starts off the campaign away from the starting XI with a heel injury and an unknown return date. Dubravka hadn’t missed a league minute in two seasons so he will already be at a disadvantage. Missing out on fixtures against West Ham, Brighton, and Burnley in the first four games should be enough to see a decline in points.
Enda Stevens (5.5) – Sheffield United
As mentioned above, Sheffield United had a wonderful first season back in the Premier League. From a defensive standpoint, they were one of the hardest teams to break down, highlighted by their 13 clean sheets.
Enda Stevens was one of the beneficiaries of those clean sheet points, also chipping in with six goal contributions to land him 142 points. It’s not unreasonable to suggest a drop-off, particularly with Henderson gone, and so Stevens makes the list.
Cesar Azpilicueta (6.0) – Chelsea
130 points was Azpilicueta’s lowest return in four seasons but we’re predicting another decline. Dave, as he’s affectionately known, has been a mainstay in the Chelsea side for years but his game time is set to take a hit this season. The emergence of Reece James at right-back and the signing of Ben Chilwell at left-back will likely eat into the Spaniards minutes as the season wears on.
Caglar Soyuncu (5.5) – Leicester
The Turkish international was an FPL favourite after replacing Harry Maguire in the heart of the Leicester defence last season. The Foxes outperformed expectation to secure a Europa League spot that will likely harm their league prospects. 12 clean sheets is no mean feat, meaning Soyuncu and co. may come up short in FPL points.
Nicolas Otamendi (5.0) – Manchester City
The former Valencia player’s days are surely numbered under Pep Guardiola. Otamendi only managed 82 points all season and is clearly not trusted by his manager. By the end of the campaign, Aymeric Laporte, Fernandinho and Eric Garcia were all ahead of him in the pecking order. Add Nathan Aké to the mix and you’ve got a recipe for fewer points.
Willian (8.0) – Arsenal
The Brazil international scored nine and assisted nine in his most productive Premier League campaign to date. Now at Arsenal, he has greater competition for places and will likely see fewer penalties as a result.
In chronological order, his points tallies read: 82, 104, 135, 114, 130, 108, 168. Regression to the mean is expected.
John Lundstram (5.5) – Sheffield United
This is one of the more straightforward inclusions to explain. Last year he was a defender picking up 40 clean sheet points and starting most games. This season he’s classified as a midfielder with Sander Berge likely to start ahead of him. A return of 144 points is not happening.
Mason Mount (7.0) – Chelsea
He was one of Chelsea’s star performers last season but a drop-off in FPL output is expected. Lampard clearly rates Mount highly but competition for places will likely be a factor.
To add to this, Mount’s role changed slightly as the season progressed which saw far fewer goals in the second half of the campaign. He might provide value at times, but eclipsing 137 points doesn’t look on the cards.
Jamie Vardy (10.0) – Leicester
The Leicester forward bagged 23 goals on the way to the golden boot last season. Jamie Vardy has carved out a career from proving his doubters wrong but surpassing the 200-point mark looks optimistic.
Leicester’s packed European schedule and overreliance on a soon-to-be 34-year-old will lead to an inevitable dip in FPL points.
Antony Martial (9.0) – Manchester United
Put down your pitchforks United fans. Let us explain. The main reason for Martial’s inclusion here is his reclassification to a forward. Martial would have been 31 points worse off from goals and clean sheets had he been classified as a forward last season.
Yes, he did miss a fair portion of games through injury, but Martial would still have to outperform his 26 goal contributions by a reasonable margin to match his 200-point tally.
Tammy Abraham (7.5) – Chelsea
Two words. Timo Werner.
15 goals and six assists is a fine return for a debut campaign but Abraham will struggle to replicate that from fewer minutes.
Jordan Ayew (6.0) – Crystal Palace
Nine goals for a Crystal Palace side that only managed 31 in total is very impressive and that’s exactly why he’s on the list. The Eagles do not create or score enough and Ayew was outperforming his expected goals. He won’t be matching Sergio Aguero’s points tally this season, that’s for sure.
Joelinton (6.0) – Newcastle
The phrase ‘kicking a dog whilst it’s down’ springs to mind. Joelinton’s two goals were only enough to help him to 78 points in his first Premier League campaign. The signing of Callum Wilson, a striker with a track record (albeit a patchy one) of scoring goals in the PL, will see Joelinton’s game time cut dramatically.
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