Cheltenham Festival 2025 Favourites Tips – Two Tipsters Choose to Back or Lay

There are 10 short-priced favourites set to line-up in the 2025 Cheltenham Festival and we have asked Ciaran and Adam to go through them and tell us whether you should back or lay.

At the end of the article there is also the four fancies they both agree on which make up an 11/2 non-runner no-bet accumulator across the four days but how many will you be with and against from the 10 that all the bookies will want to see beat?

You can also find all the best Cheltenham bookies sign-up offers for the 2025 Festival which will give you a bucket load of free bets to go to war with in March.

 

Galopin Des Champs (Gold Cup)

CIARAN: Starting off with an easy one here. In my column at Christmas, I said that he was certainly the best staying chaser since Kauto Star and could even be better. I didn’t see anything at Christmas that would change my mind. The 2 time defending champ has zero chinks in his armour and there is also the lack of a credible challenger. Even the biggest Corbetts Cross/Emmet Mullins fanboy around (guilty) couldn’t make a case that he would get near the reigning champ (although I think he may chase him home). I also respect Banbridge and unlike most, his King George performance made me think he would improve for the Gold Cup trip (he is a fellow Martin pipe winner after all).

I have also seen some make the case that GDC isn’t as good at Cheltenham. Perhaps, but only by virtue of how outstanding he is at Leopardstown. Let’s not forget that bar a very unlucky stumble, he would be looking for 5 Festival wins in a row. 

Verdict: Back

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ADAM: Galopin Des Champs is some horse and I fully expect him to win this and write his name into the Cheltenham record books. He is the best staying chaser since Kauto Star (who knows, could he be even better?) and there isn’t enough praise you can give him.

Rivals are falling by the wayside and it might be the smallest field we’ve had in a Gold Cup in a while. His main market rival (Fact to File) could go elsewhere and if it does, then Galopin probably goes off close to 2/5 – 1/3.

He’s a certainty and I wouldn’t even bother complicating it.

Verdict: Back

 

Constitution Hill (Champion Hurdle)

CIARAN: Certainly a different proposition than before Christmas where I was adamant that he wouldn’t see a race track again. He has impressed me with how he has dismissed some solid but unspectacular rivals (Lossiemouth aside….but we will get to her).

Despite winning at the DRF, I give State Man absolutely no chance. He seems regressive to me and despite winning a County Hurdle and being the defending champion, I’m not convinced he truly loves the course. 

I have been in Lossiemouth’s camp all year. Even after her blowout at Christmas, I took a positive in the way she finished. I have heard different views of how she travelled at the DRF but I was very happy with her. However, you have to accept that coming into the race off the back of a heavy fall (her first on the track) is less than ideal prep. It is also massively off-putting that Paul Townend rode State Man at the DRF and Willie seemed to suggest he may do so again at Cheltenham. There is also the chance that she ends up in the Mares Hurdle.

Finally, the wildcard. I have absolutely no idea what Brighterdaysahead will do. I can see both arguments and I don’t believe connections if they say their mind is made up. 

If I knew I would have the 2 Mares running for me I would Lay but with current Information…..

Verdict: Back

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ADAM: Due to my view of the Mares Hurdle and my belief that Brighterdaysahead won’t be a rival to Constitution Hill, I see a similar outcome in the main event on Tuesday, with the odds on fav coming home in front. I think Lossiemouth will line up here but I can’t be confident of her beating Constitution Hill after a fall and a far-from-ideal season. The current champ State Man has been underappreciated throughout his career and I am only going to add to that by saying there’s no chance he can turn the tables on the 2023 champ. After those mentioned, there really isn’t a rival who would make Constitution Hill get out of 2^nd gear and I cannot wait to see him regain his title on March 11^th.

Verdict: Back

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Jonbon (Champion Chase)

CIARAN: Despite being a massive fan of his as a Novice hurdler, and despite his record (17 wins from 20 starts, 9 grade 1s, never outside the first 2), I just have a feeling he is vulnerable. Even as I write it, it seems bizarre but at odds on, the fact that all 3 of those losses have come at Cheltenham would have to be a worry. But the case to take him on has one major flaw…with who?

I have been in the Gaelic Warrior camp all year and I don’t mind him losing at Leopardstown (a track he clearly dislikes). But the manner of his DRF run was so disappointing that his participation must surely be in doubt. That being said, if the ground is soft and he turned up on the day, I wouldn’t dismiss his chances. I would give Il Est Francais a good chance but I actually think he will end up in the Ryanair (more of that later). Solness has won both Irish trials but was 11th in a Grand Annual off 149.

So there is no obvious alternative. But that being said, at odds on, I’ll take the field and do a rain dance.

Verdict: Lay

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ADAM: The first thing to look at when deciding if a horse is a back/lay in this format is the opposition and asking yourself, what can beat them? This race is another where there are plenty of doubts over participation and for that reason its difficult to take Jonbon on. Il Est Francais, Gaelic Warrior and El Fabiolo are all more likely to run in the Ryanair whilst Banbridge will likely run in the Gold Cup. That’s 4 of the top 6 in the betting and outside of that, the race lacks quality. Even if those horses do run, I don’t see how they can scare Jonbon over 2 miles at Cheltenham, especially on the back of the seasons they have had.

Jonbon has looked better than ever this season and his record throughout his career speaks for itself. Having only suffered his (3) defeats in his career, at Cheltenham, punters/bookies have every right to believe that he is not at his best at Prestbury Park (which is probably correct) but I wouldn’t worry too much about those defeats. He has won at the course twice before and although they weren’t at the Festival, there is no reason why he cant perform in the big one.

After a couple of years being the bridesmaid at the Festival, I think 2025 is the year for Jonbon and I believe he finally gets the glory he deserves.

Verdict: Back

 

Brighterdaysahead (Mares Hurdle)

CIARAN: At 10/11, if you knew she was going here and Lossie wasn’t, she is the banker of all bankers. The performance at Christmas was staggering and there isn’t a mare in the field (Lossie arguably aside) who could live with her. 

Layers would have 3 things in their favour:

1. She may go to the Champion Hurdle
2. She was beaten here last year 
3. That run at Christmas may have taken a lot out of her.

But my instinct tells me she will end up here, that the race last year wasn’t run to suit and that skipping the DRF and coming here fresh was exactly the right thing to do.

Verdict: Back

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ADAM: There are a few races at Cheltenham with lots of question marks over due to the unknown of who will actually take their place in those races. The Mares Hurdle certainly fits into that category with the top of the market not 100% confirmed to line up.

Will Brighterdaysahead run? Will connections of Lossiemouth divert to this? It’s still a guessing game currently and we might not know for certain until 10am on Sunday 9^th March. But we are here to have a view and mine is that I believe Brighterdaysahead runs here and Lossiemouth will go to the Champion hurdle as planned.

If that’s the case then she ranks as one of the bankers of the meeting and there’s not another mare who can come close to her. Her form at 2m this season has been outstanding but connections have always said that her ideal trip is 2 ½ miles and I see no problem with her taking her chance here and bolting up

Verdict: Back

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Kopek Des Bordes (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle)

CIARAN: The fact that the long-time antepost favourite was a second-season novice who hadn’t been seen since winning at Tipperary was evidence that this division lacked a superstar. Until Sunday. What Kopek Des Bordes did on the track was spectacular but what’s more, I don’t ever recall Willie being as effusive in his praise. Quite frankly, while these are novices are all capable of rapid progress, I don’t see anything getting close to him. Perhaps his buzzy and free-going nature will be exposed in the hustle and bustle of a Supreme but I don’t see it.

Verdict: Back

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ADAM: The DRF can often blow a race or division open and that’s what happened last weekend with some outstanding performances from the Willie Mullins stable. The Supreme Novices Hurdle market was quite flakey before Sunday but the way Kopek Des Bordes smashed his rivals with ease has blown the race and market apart. He improved no end from his 1^st start over hurdles at Xmas and if any improvement is to come next time (which it likely will) then I’m not sure there’s another novice that can live with him. Willies comments post-race and in his press day a couple of days after, would tell us how highly he rates the performance and the horse, and who are we to go against Willie’s No1 Supreme horse? I can see him shortening even more over the coming weeks and I would be very surprised if he doesn’t win this.

Verdict: Back

 

Teahupoo (Stayers Hurdle)

CIARAN: My NAP of the Festival last year and he didn’t disappoint. But there is no room for sentiment in this game and his reappearance in the Hatton’s Grace was underwhelming. I don’t mind him coming straight to Cheltenham. In fact I have a long-standing belief that it isn’t the ground that is the key to him but first time out after an extended break. Add into the mix that this is the worst lineup for a Festival Championship race in my memory. Gowel Road who, as admirable as he is, was 6th in a Coral Cup last year off 142, and is 9 years old is now 4th favourite. Teahupoo Has to be a certainty right?

Well for me, at the prices, I would rather lay than play. Perhaps my hopes lie with Home by The Lee whose stamina was never in doubt but seemed to just lack the required speed to keep up. This year, he has looked better than ever and I’m taking a chance he can reverse the form from last year.

Verdict: Lay

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ADAM: Not the easiest one to decide on this. Teahupoo comes into this year’s Festival off the back of the same plan that saw him take this race 12 months ago. That was 1 run in the Hattons Grace at the start of December. Something feels slightly different this year though. This season’s Hatton Grace didn’t see him to his best effect and he was downed quite easily by the speedy Lossiemouth (in what was a slowly run race).

Gordon was tempted to run him at Xmas but opted against it and stuck with the straight-to-Cheltenham plan. When talking about this horse I often think about the Jack Kennedy factor and how important he is to its success. Fingers cross Jack gets to the Festival and is fit. But that’s not certain and just adds another doubt when backing the horse.

It’s not the strongest of divisions and that’s why he’s a short enough price. There are only probably 2-3 horses that can win the race but in Lucky Place & Home by the Lee we have 2 yardsticks and challengers who can serve it up to the favourite and at the prices, I’m going to take him on.

Verdict: Lay

 

Ballyburn (Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase)

CIARAN: Last year, he was the darling of racing Twitter and now, everyone seems to want to be against him. Why? Because he was beaten by what I have already likened to an aeroplane over a trip too short?

I also can’t understand the negativity towards his DRF performance. For me, it was exactly what I would want in a Brown Advisory trial. His jumping was accurate and economical and I loved the way he picked up all the way to the line from looking beat at the last. We know there won’t be a quicker horse in the race and I felt that the DRF win assured his stamina. I like Dancing City as a horse and he was my idea of the winner for this at the start of the year but at that stage, I had Ballyburn in the Arkle. I think class and Paul Townend in the saddle will be the difference here and he is my bet of the Festival at current prices.

Verdict: Back

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ADAM: Even though Ballyburn is a short-priced favourite, won Grade 1’s over hurdles & fences and won as he wanted at last year’s Cheltenham Festival, I’m taking him on here and it’s a fairly easy decision to do so. There is just something I don’t like over fences and even though he improved for a step up in trip at the DRF, I think he’s beatable come Cheltenham. Now, I would prefer it if The Jukebox Man hadn’t been ruled out for the season as we’ve lost a very credible rival, but having said that, I still think he has dangers that can get the better of him.

Dancing City is the stand-out 2^nd fav and I must say, I’ve been really impressed with him over fences. He comes here on the back of only 2 chase starts (not ideal for the trends boys) but he’s been flawless in them and I think he will improve further for the extra furlong and stamina test. I also think last year’s Martin Pipe winner Better Days Ahead shouldn’t be ruled out. Ballyburn may be the sexier type and the one to beat here but I’m happy to have the field running for me come the Wednesday of the festival.

Verdict: Lay

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Fact to File (Ryanair Chase)

CIARAN: He started the year as the pretender to the throne but King Galopin has dismissed him to the Ryanair. It does look likely that he will end up here but I think that people are in a hurry to anoint him the champ again.

He was good last year but let’s have another look at last year’s form. Monty’s Star and Gaelic Warrior at Leopardstown (see above). Hardly inspiring. Admittedly his win in the John Durcan is impressive but I don’t think it’s the best piece of form in the race. Stop the race at 2m 5f in the King George and your Ryanair winner is in front. I hope team Il Est Francais make their own decision rather than worry about the opposition and go to the distance that is tailor made for him. I also don’t see it as 100% certain he goes here.

Add in the potential of Cheltenham Gaelic Warrior, El Fabiolo, Spillanes Tower, defending champion Protektorat and my big price fancy for the race Jungle Boogie and you have plenty in your favour when looking to….

Verdict: Lay

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ADAM: There are still lots of unknowns again for this race, not least, Fact to File. It’s not certain that he even takes his chance here so would take some confidence to back him regardless of what else might actually join him in the race.

I would still be happy to take him on even if he does turn up as you could have some good horses running for you. With Gaelic Warrior disappointing at the DRF there has to be a strong possibility that he diverts to the further trip. Il Est Francais is still a possibility and I would say its odds on for him to come over for this race. Last year’s winner Protektorat looked back to his best on his last start at Windsor as isn’t without a chance. JP also has the option of running Spillanes Tower who would be an obvious danger if lining up.

Fact to File’s season has been geared up to running in a Gold Cup and with 2 hard races over 3 miles on his last 2 starts, is that the best preparation for a Ryanair? I would say no and even though 2 ½ miles might be his optimum trip, he’s a lay all day for me.

Verdict: Lay

 

Lulamba (Triumph Hurdle)

CIARAN: The market move on this horse before his debut was like I had never seen before. 33s, 20s, 10s, 5s 4/1 in what seemed like a blink of an eye. The horse hadn’t even set foot on a UK racecourse. He must have picked up Con Hill, Sir Gino and Jonbon and overtook Nicky in the Range Rover.

Surely this was all hype. But then he gave 10 pounds and a beating to a half a million pounds Mondo Man who was rated 110 on the flat and did it as he liked.

He is the worthy fav and for once, I don’t see much in Ireland to challenge. But East India Dock has looked impressive in 2 course starts and connections seem bullish about his chances. I got to this sentence ready to lay but I just can’t bring myself to do it. I have a gut feeling that this might be another special one for Hendo and the Donnellys.

Verdict: Back

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ADAM: Lulamba was the talking horse for several weeks leading up to his UK debut at Ascot in January and his price for the Triumph Hurdle plummeted during that time. There wasn’t a day that went by whereby a bookmaker didn’t cut him by a point or more. He then backed up the hype by winning on debut and giving 10lb to smart flat type in Mondo Man. He shortened further for the triumph and kept getting backed as if he’d won in March already.

There is no denying the horse’s ability and hype but hes short enough for a Triumph in which he has a serious rival. East India Dock has the form, and Cheltenham experience, and has boasted good time/rating figures on all his starts. He’s a real player and the difference in price between them is too big. The challenge from Ireland is surprisingly thin this year (they have won every Triumph bar 1 since 2016) so the race lacks huge depth, but there is still a danger in the recent DRF winner, Hello Neighbour. He seems to be the best of the Irish and is open to further improvement come March.

It might be that Lulamba is the next Sir Gino, but like his stablemate, he has competition to win his race and at the price he’s a lay for me.

Verdict: Lay

 

Cheltenham Tips – Back or Lay

Horse	Adam	Ciaran
Kopek Des Bordes	Back	Back
Sir Gino	Lay	Back
Brighterdaysahead	Back	Back
Constitution Hill	Back	Back
Ballyburn	Lay	Back
Jonbon	Back	Lay
Fact to File	Lay	Lay
Teahupoo	Lay	Lay
Lulamba	Lay	Back
Galopin Des Champs	Back	Back

 

Cheltenham 2025 Favourites Accumulator Tip

Ciaran and Adam agreed on four of the 10 favourites and at the time of writing you can back them at 5.7/1 with bet365 using their non-runner no-bet promotion. This means if any of the horses don’t run, that leg of the accumulator is void.

• Kopek Des Bordes – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
• Brighterdaysahead – Mares Hurdle
• Constitution Hill – Champion Hurdle
• Galopin Des Champs – Gold Cup

ODDS – 5.7/1 with bet365 (NRNB)

 

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