Cheltenham Festival Tips – Rating the Chances of the Odds on Favourites Shishkin, Envoi Allen, Chacun Pour Soi and Monkfish

Monkfish Cheltenham Festival

The 2021 Cheltenham Festival schedule includes a total of 28 races, just four of which, at the time of writing, feature odds-on favourites and today we take a look at whether they are bankers or blowouts.

Deciding whether to side with or against an odds-on favourite is not always straightforward, so we’ve attempted to rate each Festival ‘hotpot’ on a scale of one to ten. Of course, it’s possible to rate each odds-on favourite based on its chances of winning as implied by the bookmakers’ odds currently available. However, as Mark Twain once wrote, ‘it is a difference of opinion that makes horse races’ so, beyond simple mathematics, our ‘out-of-ten’ ratings inevitably involve an element of subjectivity; in other words, they’re just our opinion!

 

Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase – Shishkin (10/11)

Shiskin is, arguably, the most vulnerable of the four odds-on on favourites, insofar as he faces the stiffest opposition, in the form of Energumene and Allmankind, both of whom are Grade One winners over fences. Of course, Shishkin is a Grade One winning hurdler, having scraped home in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Festival after being hampered by a faller at the second-last flight, but has yet to hit the same heights over fences. That said, he is unbeaten over fences, having completed a hat-trick, with a minimum of fuss, in the Grade Two Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster in February.

Rating 5/10.

 

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – Monkfish (8/11)

The winner of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle last year, Monkfish has made a seamless transition to fences this season, most recently travelling strongly and jumping well to easily beat his old rival Latest Exhibition by 11 lengths in the Grade One Flogas Novice Chase at Leopardstown. Proven at three miles, at the highest level, he is hard to fault. Indeed, that fact is reflected by the bookmakers, who bet 8/1 bar, which brings in Royale Pagaille, who appears more likely to run in the National Hunt in any case, and 14/1 bar the pair.

Rating 8/10.

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Cheltenham BOG & NRNB

 

Queen Mother Champion Chase – Chacun Pour Soi (8/11)

Dramatically withdrawn last year, when an abscess on his foot was discovered on the morning of the race, Chacun Pour Soir has tasted defeat just once in seven starts for Willie Mullins. He is unbeaten in three starts this season, including two at Grade One level, and it’s frankly hard to see him being beaten if he brings his ‘A’ game to the Festival. Mullins has yet to win the Champion Chase, but that equally also true of the Cheltenham Gold Cup two years ago and Chacun Pour Soi sets a high standard.

Rating 8/10.

 

Marsh Novices’ Chase, Envoi Allen (4/5)

Unbeaten in all twelve starts, including the Weatherbys Champion Bumper in 2019 and the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle last year, Envoi Allen probably requires little introduction. His fledgling chasing career has, so far, has yielded three facile wins, including one at Grade One level – albeit at prohibitive odds of 2/11 – and, still only a 6-year-old, it’s difficult to predict where he might end up.

He’s already officially rated 164 and quoted at 10/1 second favourite for the 2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup, so it’s not inconceivable that might frighten most of the serious opposition away by the time March 18 rolls around.

Rating 9/10.

 

Best Odds Guaranteed & NRNB for Cheltenham

When betting on the Cheltenham Festival, you should always look to get the best value for your bets, especially when you are betting on odds on shot such as these four horses.

That is where the bet365 promotions of non-runner no bet and best odds guaranteed comes into play.

Best odds guaranteed: if you bet on any horse at Cheltenham and the starting price is bigger than the odds you took, you will get paid out at the bigger odds if your horse wins.

Non-runner no bet: If you bet on a horse and it doesn’t run, you get the cost of your bet refunded in cash.

 

bet365 sign-up offer for Cheltenham:

1 Join bet365 using this link

2 Deposit between £10 and £100

3 You get the same amount added to your account, in bet credits

4 Activate the credits and start using them

Upto £100 in Bet Credits for New Customers

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Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

 

More Cheltenham Offers from bet365

Once you have a bet365 account you can also qualify for all the following offers at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival:

Back a winner at 4/1 or more and get a risk free bet on the next live ITV race (up to £50)

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Back a winner at 4/1 or more and get a risk free bet on the next live ITV race (up to £50) at bet365. Offer applies to first single bet placed. Applies to Win and Each-Way Fixed Odds markets and Enhanced Place Terms markets only. Bet restrictions and T&Cs apply. New and eligible customers only.

Best Odds Guaranteed - Take a price on your selection and if the SP is bigger, get paid at the bigger odds

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Take a price on your selection and if the SP is bigger bet365 will pay you at the bigger odds. Available on Horse Racing. Applies to bets placed on Win and Each-Way Fixed Odds markets only. All racing in Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong is excluded. Bet restrictions and T&Cs apply. New and eligible customers only.

Live Horse Racing Streaming at bet365

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Watch Live Sport. You can watch live sport on your mobile, tablet or desktop including Soccer, Tennis and Basketball. All you need is a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to qualify.

 

Cheltenham Festival Free Bets

1.
SBK Sign-up Offer & Free Bets – First £20 in losses refunded in CASH

Bet £20 on the Grand National > get a £20 CASH REFUND if you lose

New customers only. Deposit £20 using Debit Card, bank transfer or Trustly. Up to your first £20 of losses will be refunded as CASH within 24 hours of qualifying bet having been settled. T&Cs apply.
2.
BetVictor Sign-up Offer & Free Bets for Horse Racing: Bet £10 get £40 in Free Bets

Bet £10 get £40 in Bonuses

18+ New Customers only. Deposit, opt in and place a £10 qualifying bet on Horse Racing at odds of 2.00 or greater within 7 days of opening a new account; excludes cashed out bets. Receive 3x £10 Horse Racing Free Bets, valid on set events only at odds 2.00 or greater. Plus, a £10 Game Show Bonus, selected games, wager 40x to withdraw a max of £250. Bonuses expire in 7 days. T&Cs Apply, see below. Please Gamble Responsibly.
3.
Ladbrokes Free Bet

Bet £5 get £20 in Free Bets

18+ New UK+IRE customers. Paypal and certain deposit types and bet types excluded. Min £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 = 4 x £5 free bets. Free bets valid for 7 days on sports, stake not returned, restrictions apply. T&Cs apply.
4.
Coral

Bet £5 to get FOUR free £5 bets

18+ Eligible UK+IRE players. Paypal & some deposit & bet types excl. Min first £5 bet within 14 days of account reg at min odds 1/2 = 4x £5 free bets. Free bets valid for 7 days, stake not returned. No cash-out, restrictions & T&Cs apply.

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