National Hunt Chase Tips & Predictions 2024 – 5.30pm Tuesday 12th March

Salvador Ziggy Cheltenham

Our racing expert Adam O’Brien looks at the 2024 National Hunt Chase tips for his latest ante-post bet on the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.

I love this race from a betting perspective. It has been kind to me in the past and I’ve been lucky enough to find winners early in the calendar at tasty prices. In my opinion the National Hunt Chase is a good race to bet in now, even with a couple of puzzle pieces still to find.


When targeting races to punt Ante Post I usually look at the following things

  1. How much will the race cut up and is the top of the betting market full of Non Runners?
  2. How many horses at this stage do I genuinely believe can win this race?
  3. Will the market be totally different on the day?

Once I go through the race and I’m happy with the answers to these, then it’s time to pull the trigger.


National Hunt Chase 2024

When going through the odds on Oddschecker, the top of the market is full of horses that won’t turn up. Klassical Dream (really Betway?), Montys Star (likely goes to the Brown Advisory), The Nice Guy (anyone seen him?), Stay Away Fay (No amateur is riding this over Harry Cobden), Corbetts Cross (don’t believe he goes here) and Fact to File & Grangeclare West (both likely go to the Brown Advisory).

With lots of horses near the top of the market in this that will likely go to the Brown Advisory, it’s worth reading Ciaran’s 2024 Brown Advisory Novice Chase 2024 tips.


National Hunt Chase 2024 Tips – What to look for

I believe that a lot of people in racing read this race wrong and think it’s just a huge test of stamina. Don’t get me wrong, you have to stay to win a 3m6f race up the Cheltenham hill but you also need a bit of pace too. They often crawl around for the first 2 circuits before a bit of speed gets injected into the race.

The last 3 winners of the race (Galliard Du Mesnil, Stattler & Galvin) have had good form, either over hurdles or fences, over 2 ½ miles which has stood them in good stead.

In fact, the last 3 winners have a few similarities in them. The race is becoming a classier affair of late and the ratings of those 3 winners were 155, 153 and 152 which is way above the previous 6 years average. They have also had good festival form going into the race. Galliard Du Mesnil placed in a Ballymore and Brown Advisory, Stattler was 4th in an Albert Bartlett and Galvin was 2nd in the Novices Handicap Chase. Festival form is key in many of the 28 races but I believe this race to have a really strong trend on that.

The race has become a classier affair mainly because it is targeted by the 2 heavyweight trainers in Ireland. Mullins and Elliott have won 6 of the last 7 renewals (If you class Galvin’s win as his work and not Ian Ferguson’s) and tend to have the best horses in the race. Coupled with them probably having the best jockeys on board too (Patrick Mullins or Jamie Codd usually), it’s no surprise it’s a race that is good to the pair of them and it’s really difficult not to target their horses again this year.

It’s a market that is wide open. By now we usually know which of the Mullins horses Patrick is riding or pushing to ride but it’s still a guessing game 3 weeks into January. Willie has the top 3 in the betting and you would be pretty confident to say that once it’s known who Patrick is going to ride then the price of said horse will crash into clear favouritism.


National Hunt Chase 2024 Ante-post Predictions

It’s a guess at this current time but I think that Patrick will end up riding NICK ROCKETT (10/1). Although at the time of writing, he’s not qualified yet (needs to run over 3m), I think this will be his target and he’s one I would really fancy in the race. He has form over the shorter trip and was impressive when winning a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse at Easter.

He lined up in probably the hottest beginners chase this season on chasing debut and didn’t lose anything in defeat (Paul Townend may have wanted to have that ride again) in behind Corbetts Cross, Three Card Brag and Monty’s Star. He won an easier contest at Fairyhouse on New Years Day and looks like one that will come on again on his next start. He has won on good/soft and heavy so ground shouldn’t be a problem.

The only concern I would have is that he hasn’t been to Cheltenham before and that Willie minded him last season as a novice hurdler.

I’m hoping he will qualify for the race on his next run and then this will be known as his target with Patrick hopefully taking the ride.

On Willie’s other options, there is something I’m not keen on with Embassy Gardens (whos currently the fav) and I’m not sure if Meetingofthewaters has other targets that he will be primed for.

I think it would be wrong to not talk up one of Gordon Elliott’s runners here so I’m going to make a strong case for SALVADOR ZIGGY (16/1). He was the early ante-post favourite for this and you couldn’t back him bigger than 8/1 in September. He has a typical profile that Gordon Elliott likes to build for this race and has got his experience of jumping fences in early.

He disappointed in his last outing in America but you can always excuse a horse 1 run, especially in circumstances like that. He ticks the boxes you want to see and although his form isn’t in strong graded races, he has winning form over shorter and was 2nd at last year’s Festival in the Pertemps. He drifted following that run in America and I believe hes too big of a price and is somewhat under the radar again. I think he has a huge chance and will be shorter on the day.


National Hunt Chase 2024 Betting Tips

Back Salvador Ziggy 1pt win only at 16/1 (Paddy Power/Betfair).

Back Nick Rockett 1 pt win only at 10/1 (Bet365/Paddy Power/Betfair/Sky).

Follow Adam on Twitter @OB_14


Cheltenham Day 1 Tips

*Click the race name to read our in-depth preview of the race with ante-post betting tips

1.30pm - Supreme Novice HurdleSlade Steel (EW)9/2
2.10pm - ArkleGaelic Warrior7/2
2.50pm - Ultima HandicapChianti Classico (EW)15/2
Trelawne (EW)15/2
3.30pm - Champion HurdleIberico Lord W/O State Man AND Irish Point15/8
4.10pm - Mares' HurdleTelmesomethinggirl WITHOUT Lossiemouth AND Ashroe Diamond (EW)5/1
4.50pm - Boodles Fred WinterPalamon (EW)20/1
Ose Partir (EW)14/1
5.30pm - National Hunt ChaseSalvador Ziggy11/2


Cheltenham Day 2 Tips

1.30pm - Baring Bingham Novices' HurdlePredators Gold (ew)10/1 Bet
2.10pm - Brown Advisory Novice ChaseFact to File10/11
2.50pm - Coral CupGuard Your Dreams (ew)25/1
Brazil (ew)16/1
3.30pm - Queen Mother Champion ChaseEl Fabiolo double with Ballyburn (1.30pm)5/4
4.10pm - Cross Country ChaseCoko Beach4/1
4.50pm - Grand Annual ChaseLiberty Hunter (ew)13/2
5.30pm - Champion BumperC’est Ta Chance (ew)16/1
Cantico (ew)12/1


Cheltenham Day 3 Tips

1.30pm - Turners Novice ChaseGinnys Destiny4/1
2.10pm - Pertemps Network FinalCuthbertdibble9/1
2.50pm - Ryanair ChaseStage Star9/2
3.30pm - Stayers HurdleTeahupoo7/4
4.10pm - Plate Handicap ChaseTheatre Man (ew)9/2
4.50pm - Mares Novice HurdleBrighterdaysahead13/8
5.30pm - Kim Muir ChaseWhacker Clan12/1


Cheltenham Day 4 Tips

1.30pm - Triumph HurdleMajborough9/2
2.10pm - County HurdleKing of Kingsfield 5/1
So Scottish (ew)14/1
2.50pm - Albert Bartlett Novices' HurdleGidleigh Park7/1
3.30pm - Cheltenham Gold CupGalopin Des Champs11/10
4.10pm - Festival Challenge Cup Hunters ChaseIt's on the Line9/4
Premier Magic13/2
4.50pm - Paddy Power Mares ChaseRiviere D’Etel (each-way)20/1
5.30pm - Martin Pipe HurdleBetter Days Ahead10/1