National Hunt Chase Tips 2022 – Cheltenham Festival

The Grade Two National Hunt Chase, now run over the recently revised distance of 3 miles, 5 furlongs and 201 yards on the Old Course at Cheltenham, is restricted to novice chasers and amateur riders and, as such, is always likely to be eventful.

 

National Hunt Chase Betting Tips

In the past few years the shape of this race has changed, it used to be a race of absolute attrition, one that only the hardiest of stayers would win and you needed a certain type to run in it, let alone win it.

This year’s field on paper looks to be one of the classiest lineups of the race. To mention a handful, Stattler, who based on his runs this season seems to have a turn of foot and stamina but could just lack the experience.

Threeunderthrufive who with the exception of his first run over fences has won and run to a very high quality albeit in small runner fields and last year’s Albert Bartlett winner Vanillier who although hasn’t really shone to the same heights over fences has the back class and festival form to perform to a high standard.

However, my pick RUN WILD FRED carries the similar sort of profile to last year’s winner Galvin. A highly tried, accurate jumper, second season novice. It took him 8 runs over fences to gain that first win, but the levels of his performances on ratings have gotten better with every run. Some solid performances in what is are some hot beginners chases last year and some very good handicaps. Last year’s main aim seemed to be the Irish National and he didn’t really disappoint in it either with a good second in the race and after that race, I reckon they pencilled this in for him.

This season his performances picked up from where he left off including a somewhat easy 7 ½ length victory in the Troy Town off 145 carrying 11st 6, where he pretty much made all and didn’t really put a foot wrong. With that win, he kind of ruled himself out of running in handicaps and he doesn’t really have the class or speed for a graded 3m race in which was shown at Christmas, losing out to his stablemate Fury Road (who is a big player in the Festival Novice Chase.)

Gigginstown aren’t particularly big fans of the race, with their last runner being Tiger Roll in 2017. But the noises and market moves show that him lining up in the race is very likely indeed. With the exception of the one bad mistake over Christmas, he jumps well You know he will have no problem staying, he has plenty of experience and in big runner fields too.

I think RUN WILD FRED will be extremely hard to beat when it comes to the nitty-gritty end and as shown he certainly isn’t one to shy away from a challenge.

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National Hunt Chase Trends

Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8.

Price – 3 of the last 12 winners were favorites/joint favorites, 5/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.

Last Run – 4/12 winners won on their last run before Cheltenham, 8/12 winners had their last run within the last 52 days.

Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, only 2 had a previous win at Cheltenham.

Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over at least 3 miles, 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over at least 3 miles.

Previous Chase Form – 12/12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 4 previous chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
Rating – 10/12 winners had a rating of 139 or higher.

Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 4 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season.

 

National Hunt Chase Recent Winners

Year Horse Jockey Trainer
2009 Tricky Trickster Sam Waley-Cohen Nigel Twiston-Davies
2010 Poker De Sivola K Walsh Ferdy Murphy
2011 Chicago Grey Derek O’Connor Gordon Elliott
2012 Teaforthree J T McNamara Rebecca Curtis
2013 Back In Focus P W Mullins Willie Mullins
2014 Midnight Prayer Joshua Newman Alan King
2015 Cause of Causes J J Codd Gordon Elliott
2016 Minella Rocco Derek O’Connor Jonjo O’Neill
2017 Tiger Roll Ms L O’Neill Gordon Elliott
2018 Rathvinden P W Mullins Willie Mullins
2019 Le Breuil J J Codd Ben Pauling
2020 Ravenhill J J Codd Gordon Elliott

 

National Hunt Chase 2020 Result

1st – Ravenhill (12/1)

2nd – Lord Du Mesnil (11/2)

3rd – Lamanver Pippin (33/1)

4th – Forza Milan (12/1)

 

Cheltenham Festival Tips