Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle Tips 2024 – 1.30pm Wednesday 13th March
The opener on Day 2 at the Cheltenham Festival is the Baring Bingham (formerly Ballymore) Novices Hurdle over 2m5f and out Cheltenham tipster Adam O’Brien has two each-way betting tips. Some of the racing greats have won this from the gutsy Hardy Eustace in 2003 to the machine that is Faugheen in 2014.
This looks a wide open race and it’s going to be tough to pick the winner of the Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle until we know the final entries. The likes of Mystical Power could still go to the Supreme Novices Hurdle so make sure you are using one of the Cheltenham NRNB bookies to bet on this race.
Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle Predictions 2024
The first race of day 2 and it’s predominantly one won by Ireland with 9 of the last 10 winners coming from across the water. The top 5 and 9 of the top 12 in the betting are Irish trained and it’s looking likely that the winner will come from those shores again.
The race could have a different look come the day due to Willie Mullins having 3 at the top of the market who might not turn up. Ballyburn and Mystical Power are the top 2 in the betting for the Supreme (read our 2024 Supreme Novice Hurdle tips here) whilst Readin Tommy Wrong is joint fav for the 3m Albert Bartlett. I’m of the opinion that Ballyburn and Mystical Power DON’T come here and take their engagement in the Supreme on Day 1 and this article will be based on that thought. I do believe that Readin Tommy Wrong will turn up here even though it’s 50/50. But whilst he won the best trial for this race in the Grade 1 ‘Lawlors of Naas’ in January, I think he is more of a stayer (and maybe his trainer does too and that’s why the Albert Bartlett is still strongly being considered) and for that reason, he’s not for me.
Even though a few horses have reduced in price over the last 10 days or so I do believe that there’s still value to have here and if/when Ballyburn & Mystical Power get confirmed for the Supreme, the prices will further reduce.
My Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle tip 2 weeks ago was Caldwell Potter but he has now been taken out of the race since he has changed stable to Paul Nicholls following the Andy & Gemma Brown’s, Caldwell Construction dispersal sale. With a few horses being taken out or unlikely to run, the race now looks wide open.
The last 4 and 5 of the last 6 winners were favourites so it bodes well to play at the top of the market and there’s 4 horses in the betting that are almost certain to turn up and occupy the top 4/5 places of the market come post time.
Slade Steel currently sits at the top of the betting (without Ballyburn) and I expect him to stay there and go off fav if both of Mullins hotpots run the day before. Henry De Bromhead’s charge was last seen chasing home the previously mentioned Ballyburn over 2m at the DRF in what was a strong piece of form. Prior to that, he has beat a speed horse in King of Kingsfield over 2m and also out-battled stayers in Lecky Watson and Stellar Story over 2m4 on heavy ground. He brings high-class performances into the race and is rightly near the top of the market.
Another of the Closutton gang is Ile Atlantique who was last seen being pipped on the line by stablemate Reading Tommy Wrong in the Lawlors of Naas in January. For a horse who has gone off 2/5, 2/1, 4/9 and 6/4f on his 4 starts under rules (2 bumpers and 2 hurdles), it’s quite disappointing that he’s only managed to get his head in front on 1 occasion. That was on his hurdles debut in what looks like a poor maiden form-wise. He’s clearly a horse with lots of ability but he’s one I’m not convinced of. I would have doubts of what his best trip is (Willie said he would be a staying novice at the start of the season) and if he really fancies it when in a battle. 3 of his 4 defeats have a combined distance of a length between them and that would worry me that he gets out-fought when in a fight to the line.
The best of the British takes us to the Harry Fry yard where Gidleigh Park lives. A winner of all 4 (1 bumper and 3 hurdles) career starts to date, he’s a horse who his trainer holds in huge regard. He has stepped up and improved throughout the season from hurdles debut with his latest success coming at Cheltenham for the trial for this race. That was his closest assignment to date and showed speed and a great attitude in battle to get up and beat Lucky Place by ½ length. Before that he despatched the well-respected Fire Flyer of Paul Nicholls at Newbury by 9 lengths (who has won since). I don’t think Gidleigh Park could have done much more on his hurdle starts and seems versatile to trip and ground. None of the other horses near the top of the betting have Cheltenham experience which is another positive. I think he’s a big player here.
One that I think is overpriced is Predators Gold. Last seen chasing home stablemate Dancing City at the Dublin Racing Festival over 2m6f in the Nathanial Lacey, I think the bookies have overreacted and pushed him out too far for this. He stepped up from 2m at Xmas to nearly 3m here and I think that was a distance too far. He was keen throughout and a drop back in trip will see him more at home. In that race at Xmas he was 2nd to Caldwell Potter (mentioned earlier) which I see as strong form even though it was bottomless that day and a few horses didn’t run their race. He won a bumper on good/soft and also ran well on soft/heavy so the ground at Cheltenham will be no concern regardless of how it comes up on the day.
Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle Betting Tips
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There are 2 good bets for the Baring Bingham Novices Hurdle here so I’m happy to put them both up at each-way prices. Obviously, if I’ve got Willie bingo wrong and Ballyburn turns up he is the most likely winner but if not, I think these 2 horses offer great EW value who are good enough to win.
Gidleigh Park is a horse I like and he ticks every box for key trends. He brings winning form into the race which has been key over the years with 23 of the last 29 winners having won last time out. The past 13 winners have won at least 1 bumper in their career and he won his only one last season. He brings Graded hurdle form with him following his win on trials day and he has also won over 2m with 9 of the last 15 winners ran/won over that distance last time out. He is also the peak age of 6.
I also think the 25/1 price you can still get on Predators Gold has to be taken. There is a good chance he will be 2nd string of Willies but even if he is 3rd or 4th string that shouldn’t put you off. He is only 5 (most winners are 6) but last season’s winner Impaire Et Passe showed us its possible to win this being younger than the rest. This trip should see him at his best and as long as he isn’t keen, he will be very close at the line.
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Ballymore Novices Hurdle Trends
- Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6
- Price – 6 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 9/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
- Last Run – 10 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Ballymore Novices Hurdle, 12/12 winners at least placed on their previous run, 9/12 winners ran within the last 66 days
- Previous Course Form – 3/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 3/12 winners had a previous win at Cheltenham
- Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous run over 19-21 furlongs, 8/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 11/12 winners had a least 1 win over 19-21 furlongs
- Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 2 runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles, 11/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
- Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 146 or higher
- Graded Wins – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
- Season Form – 10/12 had at least 3 runs that season, 12/12 had at least 1 win that season, 11/12 had at least 2 wins that season
Cheltenham Festival 2024 Tips
Get all our Cheltenham Festival 2024 tips and predictions for each race below, as well as a link to each preview and the key stats and trends for all 28 races between Tuesday 12th and Friday 15th March 2024.
Day 1 Tips
| Race | Tip | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Supreme Novice Hurdle | Slade Steel (EW) | 9/2 |
| 2.10pm - Arkle | Gaelic Warrior | 7/2 |
| 2.50pm - Ultima Handicap | Chianti Classico (EW) | 15/2 |
| Trelawne (EW) | 15/2 | |
| 3.30pm - Champion Hurdle | Iberico Lord W/O State Man AND Irish Point | 15/8 |
| 4.10pm - Mares' Hurdle | Telmesomethinggirl WITHOUT Lossiemouth AND Ashroe Diamond (EW) | 5/1 |
| 4.50pm - Boodles Fred Winter | Palamon (EW) | 20/1 |
| Ose Partir (EW) | 14/1 | |
| 5.30pm - National Hunt Chase | Salvador Ziggy | 11/2 |
Day 2 Tips
| Race | Tip | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle | Predators Gold (ew) | 10/1 Bet |
| 2.10pm - Brown Advisory Novice Chase | Fact to File | 10/11 |
| 2.50pm - Coral Cup | Guard Your Dreams (ew) | 25/1 |
| Brazil (ew) | 16/1 | |
| 3.30pm - Queen Mother Champion Chase | El Fabiolo double with Ballyburn (1.30pm) | 5/4 |
| 4.10pm - Cross Country Chase | Coko Beach | 4/1 |
| 4.50pm - Grand Annual Chase | Liberty Hunter (ew) | 13/2 |
| 5.30pm - Champion Bumper | C’est Ta Chance (ew) | 16/1 |
| Cantico (ew) | 12/1 |
Day 3 Tips
| Race | Tip | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Turners Novice Chase | Ginnys Destiny | 4/1 |
| 2.10pm - Pertemps Network Final | Cuthbertdibble | 9/1 |
| 2.50pm - Ryanair Chase | Stage Star | 9/2 |
| 3.30pm - Stayers Hurdle | Teahupoo | 7/4 |
| 4.10pm - Plate Handicap Chase | Theatre Man (ew) | 9/2 |
| 4.50pm - Mares Novice Hurdle | Brighterdaysahead | 13/8 |
| 5.30pm - Kim Muir Chase | Whacker Clan | 12/1 |
Day 4 Tips
| Race | Tip | Bet |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Triumph Hurdle | Majborough | 9/2 |
| 2.10pm - County Hurdle | King of Kingsfield | 5/1 |
| So Scottish (ew) | 14/1 | |
| 2.50pm - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle | Gidleigh Park | 7/1 |
| 3.30pm - Cheltenham Gold Cup | Galopin Des Champs | 11/10 |
| 4.10pm - Festival Challenge Cup Hunters Chase | It's on the Line | 9/4 |
| Premier Magic | 13/2 | |
| 4.50pm - Paddy Power Mares Chase | Riviere D’Etel (each-way) | 20/1 |
| 5.30pm - Martin Pipe Hurdle | Better Days Ahead | 10/1 |