Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (RSA) Tips (1.55pm Cheltenham Festival Day 3) – One of the bankers of the week to oblige

The Festival Novice’s Chase, formerly known as the RSA Chase, is often a stepping stone for horses seeking Gold Cup glory in the future and this season could be no different with Monkfish.

Former winners such as Denman, Bob’s Worth and Lord Windermere all went on to win the Gold Cup in the year after they won this race that is just over three miles long and contains 20 fences.

Champ dramatically came late on to take the victory last season, as Allaho and Minella Indo crashed through fences and toiled up the Cheltenham hill and this year we’re hoping to see another thriller with Monkfish seeing off all his rivals.

 

Festival Novices’ Chase Odds

HorseOddsBookies
Monkfish2/1bet365
Royale Pagaille8/1bet365
Latest Exhibition10/1bet365
Next Destination14/1bet365
Envoi Allen14/1William Hill
Pencilfulloflead16/1William Hill
The Big Breakaway16/1bet365
Colreevy20/1William Hill
Andy Dufrense25/1bet365

 

Festival Novices’ Chase Main Contenders

  • Monkfish
  • The Big Breakaway
  • Next Destination
  • Pencilfulloflead

 

Monkfish

Monkfish is the current favourite for this year’s Festival Novice’s Chase, and rightly so after taking to fences superbly this season.

The seven-year-old managed to outlast Latest Exhibition in his last appearance in the Neville Hotels Novice’s Chase at Leopardstown and then put un another top class display when beating Latest Exhibition by even further at the Dublin Racing Festival. That pushed him to clear favourite for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase on Wednesday at Cheltenham.

This brought back memories of the 2020 Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle when Monkfish dived down to beat Latest Exhibition, Fury Road and Thyme Hill.

Monkfish can go in testing ground and trainer Willie Mullins believes he is a natural over fences, which he proved in Dublin. Of all of the Cheltenham Festival bankers, Monkfish looks to be the best bet.

 

The Big Breakaway

Despite being beaten at Kempton over Christmas, trainer Colin Tizzard was happy with The Big Breakaway’s effort in the Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase on Boxing Day.

If it weren’t for some untidy jumps down the home straight, The Big Breakaway may have overcome a good horse in Shan Blue.

The horse delivered arguably his most impressive performance at Cheltenham in November when winning the mallardjewellers.com Novices’ Chase by 10 lengths.

Tizzard believes the horse will have learnt a lot from his Boxing day run, The Big Breakaway is a big, boisterous horse that certainly suits the long, staying nature of the Festival Novice’s Chase.

 

Next Destination

Next Destination was last seen battling on strongly and jumping superbly to beat Fiddlerontheroof in the McCoy Contractors Civils And Infrastructure Hampton Novices’ Chase at Warwick.

The horse moved from Willie Mullins to Paul Nicholls in October and has since finished second to Roksana in the bet365 Hurdle at Wetherby before going novice chasing.

Nicholls may yet opt for the National Hunt Chase for Next Destination but stated on his website that they mustn’t be afraid of a potential battle with Monkfish.

Pleasant Company took the colours of owner Malcolm Denmark to second in the 2018 Grand National, and Denmark has a chaser here with the same gritty and bold determination.

 

Pencilfulloflead

Pencilfulloflead beat Latest Exhibition by seven lengths in the Liam & Valerie Brennan Florida Pearl Novice Chase at Punchestown in November.

The seven-year-old then followed this up with a close second to the impressive Colreevey at Limerick on Boxing day, maintaining his rating of 156.

The seven-year-old loves testing ground and has emerged as another top horse in the Robcour colours this season, alongside Bob Olinger and Aspire Tower.

Pencilfulloflead is another Irish runner who’s taken to chasing superbly this season, this is a strong horse at a tempting price of 16/1.

 

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Tips

In terms of Mullins horses in the Festival Novice’s Chase, it may be tough to see past Monkfish who has taken to fences magnificently this season.

It is not an imaginative pick but the horse looks to be improving race on race and at 8/11 he is short enough, but will likely go off even shorter on the day.

WIN SELECTION: Monkfish – 8/11 with Bet Victor.

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Brown Advisory Novices Chase Trends

  • Age – 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 7.
  • Price – 4 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 8/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.
  • Last Run – 7 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the RSA Chase, 10/12 winners at least placed on their previous run before Cheltenham, 9/12 winners last run was within 39 days.
  • 4/12 winners ran in the Flogas Novices Chase (Leopardstown) on their last run, 2 of the 4 won, 1 placed.
  • 2/12 winners ran in the Reynoldstown Novices Chase (Ascot) on their last run, 1 of the 2 won, 1 placed.
  • Previous Course Form – 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 6/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham.
  • Previous Distance Form – 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 23-25 furlongs, 11/12 had at least 1 win over 23-25 furlongs.
  • Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 12/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles.
  • Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs, 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win.
  • Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 145 or higher.
  • Graded Wins – 9/12 winners had previously won a grade 1-3 race.
  • Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 11/12 had at least 1 win that season.

 

Brown Advisory Novices Chase Past Winners

Year Horse Jockey Trainer
2009 Cooldine Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2010 Weapon’s Amnesty Davy Russell C Byrnes
2011 Bostons Angel Robbie Power John Harrington
2012 Bobs Worth Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson
2013 Lord Windermere Davy Russell Jim Culloty
2014 O’Faolains Boy Barry Geraghty Rebecca Curtis
2015 Don Poli Bryan Cooper Willie Mullins
2016 Blaklion Ryan Hatch Nigel Twiston-Davies
2017 Might Bite Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson
2018 Presenting Percy Davy Russell Patrick G Kelly
2019 Topofthegame Harry Cobden Paul Nicholls
2020 Champ Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson

 

Brown Advisory Novices Chase 2020 Result

1st – Champ (4/1)

2nd – Minella Indo (3/1)

3rd – Allaho (5/2)

4th – Battleoverdoyen (7/1)

 

Cheltenham 2021 Race by Race Tips