Brown Advisory Novice Chase Tips 2024 – 2.10pm Wednesday 13th March

Fact to File horse

Our racing expert Cheltenham tipster Ciaran Murphy looks at the 2024 Brown Advisory Novice Chase tips for his latest ante-post bet on the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.

Contested over 3m ½f on the second day of the festival, the Brown Advisory seeks to find the best staying Novice chaser in the British Isles. Ran on the Old Course (the tighter of the 2 tracks), it is historically a race that has an excellent record of producing future Gold Cup winners. Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere (remember him?) won this contest in consecutive years while Al Boum Photo and Minella Indo also ran in this race the year before they went on to win the big one. 

 

Brown Advisory Novice Chase 2024 Trends

When analysing a race such as this, it can sometimes be useful to look at past runnings of the race to build a profile of a typical winner. 

  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 7
  • 11 of the last winners had previously run at Cheltenham (8/12 had won at the course) 
  • 10 of 12 had at least 3 chase starts, with 8/12 having at least 2 chase wins

So this race tends to favour experienced 7 year olds with course form who have won multiple times earlier in the year. 

 

Brown Advisory Novice Chase Tips

A look at the current betting odds sees up-and-coming trainer Willie Mullins having the top 2 in the market for little-known owners Cheveley Park and JP McManus. But jokes aside, this shapes as one of the most open contests of the festival, with plenty in with legitimate cases. 

Grangeclare West heads the betting off the back of a very impressive win at Leopardstown at Christmas. However, as an 8-year-old with no previous course experience, he doesn’t fit the profile of a typical winner. He was also inconsistent over hurdles and at a short price, I would be willing to look elsewhere.

FACT TO FILE (5/1), on the other hand, is a 7-year-old who was runner-up in the Champion Bumper last season. Very interestingly, he completely skipped a hurdle campaign, something that people are referring to as the “Florida Pearl” Route in reference to Willie’s King George winning chaser who did likewise.

However, that was in 1999 and I don’t remember too many in the meantime who the trainer felt had the ability to do likewise. Willie has made little effort to hide the fact that he sees this horse as a future Gold Cup winner and despite being beaten on his first start this season, given that it was his first racecourse outing over any sort of obstacle, I am willing to forgive him for that.

He is on a severe upward curve and at Christmas, his jumping was visibly improving as the race progressed. In his Novice campaign, Florida Pearl won the 2m 5f Race at the Dublin Racing Festival equivalent of the time before going on to win this race at the Cheltenham Festival and I think that Fact to File can repeat that feat this year. The figures back up this opinion as he has also recorded the highest RPR and time form rating of anyone in the betting (with Il Est Francais very unlikely to show up).

If he wins at the DRF he will become a clear favourite for the race and so I think that the 5/1 widely available is worth taking now. A small negative would be the possibility that Willie sees the shorter Turners Novice Chase as a better prep for a Gold Cup (as he did with Galopin Des Champs) but given that he has Gaelic Warrior for that race, I think that the Brown Advisory will be where Fact to File ends up. 

The English challenge here is not one to be dismissed. Stay Away Fay is an Albert Bartlett winner who was deemed worthy of a Gold Cup entry and Grey Dawning took a very good field apart at Warwick. Of the 2, I would be more fearful of Paul Nicholls’ Stay Away Fay who has demonstrated an impressive willingness to stick his neck out in a battle. If the track doesn’t find him out for pace, he won’t be beaten easily in a finish. 

Another of note at the head of the betting is Corbetts Cross who was given an odd ride at Christmas and jumped poorly.  Given connections, you would need a crystal ball to figure out what his future plans are, with Emmet Mullins as likely to be plotting out a Royal Ascot target as one in March. But with the genius of the man though, if he turned up on the day, he would warrant respect. 

 

Brown Advisory Novice Chase Each-way Tip

Plenty of others will end up in other races (read all about Embassy Gardens and Nick Rockett in our 2024 National Hunt Chase betting tips and Hermes Allen could go to the Turners or Aintree) but one piece of each-way value may lie in Henry De Bromheads 7yo MONTYS STAR (20/1). I think he is being priced as though he will end up in the NHC (for which he is as short as 10/1) but in the same colours as his half-brother Monalee and Minella Indo, who both ran in this race, I am fairly confident that he will end up here.

He was not disgraced when 3rd in a very strong race on seasonal debut and his jumping last time out was extremely impressive. His run in the Albert Bartlett last season may have come too soon after a good win in a Graded Clonmel hurdle and an RPR of 153 has him ahead of Stay Away Fay and just 5 pounds off the favourite, who achieved that rating in a Grade contest. He may skip the DRF for a 3m target at Naas or Navan (as did Minella Indo), and a win there, along with a couple of others coming out, may see him go off at less than half his current odds of 20/1.

 

Brown Advisory Novice Chase 2024 Betting Tips

Fact To File – 5/1 with Coral

Monty’s Star (each-way) – 20/1 with BetUK

Follow Ciaran on Twitter @Murphfinbarrs.

 

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Cheltenham Day 1 Tips

*Click the race name to read our in-depth preview of the race with ante-post betting tips

RaceTipODDS
1.30pm - Supreme Novice HurdleSlade Steel (EW)9/2
2.10pm - ArkleGaelic Warrior7/2
2.50pm - Ultima HandicapChianti Classico (EW)15/2
Trelawne (EW)15/2
3.30pm - Champion HurdleIberico Lord W/O State Man AND Irish Point15/8
4.10pm - Mares' HurdleTelmesomethinggirl WITHOUT Lossiemouth AND Ashroe Diamond (EW)5/1
4.50pm - Boodles Fred WinterPalamon (EW)20/1
Ose Partir (EW)14/1
5.30pm - National Hunt ChaseSalvador Ziggy11/2

 

Cheltenham Day 2 Tips

RaceTipOdds
1.30pm - Baring Bingham Novices' HurdlePredators Gold (ew)10/1 Bet
2.10pm - Brown Advisory Novice ChaseFact to File10/11
2.50pm - Coral CupGuard Your Dreams (ew)25/1
Brazil (ew)16/1
3.30pm - Queen Mother Champion ChaseEl Fabiolo double with Ballyburn (1.30pm)5/4
4.10pm - Cross Country ChaseCoko Beach4/1
4.50pm - Grand Annual ChaseLiberty Hunter (ew)13/2
5.30pm - Champion BumperC’est Ta Chance (ew)16/1
Cantico (ew)12/1

 

Cheltenham Day 3 Tips

RaceTipOdds
1.30pm - Turners Novice ChaseGinnys Destiny4/1
2.10pm - Pertemps Network FinalCuthbertdibble9/1
2.50pm - Ryanair ChaseStage Star9/2
3.30pm - Stayers HurdleTeahupoo7/4
4.10pm - Plate Handicap ChaseTheatre Man (ew)9/2
4.50pm - Mares Novice HurdleBrighterdaysahead13/8
5.30pm - Kim Muir ChaseWhacker Clan12/1

 

Cheltenham Day 4 Tips

RaceTipBet
1.30pm - Triumph HurdleMajborough9/2
2.10pm - County HurdleKing of Kingsfield 5/1
So Scottish (ew)14/1
2.50pm - Albert Bartlett Novices' HurdleGidleigh Park7/1
3.30pm - Cheltenham Gold CupGalopin Des Champs11/10
4.10pm - Festival Challenge Cup Hunters ChaseIt's on the Line9/4
Premier Magic13/2
4.50pm - Paddy Power Mares ChaseRiviere D’Etel (each-way)20/1
5.30pm - Martin Pipe HurdleBetter Days Ahead10/1