Cheltenham Day 3 Tips – Thursday 16th March 2023
The 2023 Cheltenham Festival continues into it’s third day and this looks a tough day for punters with some wide open races on the Thursday card. It’s always an exciting day and sees thousands of Irish punters visit Gloucestershire for a St Patrick’s celebration. But will they be backing a winner this year?
The day 3 Cheltenham betting tips from the ITV Racing can be found below as well as a quick preview of each race, starting Turners Novices Chase at 1.30pm and the big race of the day is the Stayers Hurdle, due off at 3.30pm. We have also got the Ryanair Chase where Shishkin is the short priced favourite.
Cheltenham Day 3 Tips
- 1.30pm – MIGHTY POTTER (11/10)
- 2.10pm – MAXXUM (7/1)
- 2.50pm – NO BET
- 3.30pm – BLAZING KHAL (7/2)
- 4.10pm – FRERO BANBOU (12/1) & COOLE CODY (28/1)
- 4.50pm – MODEL KINGDOM (33/1)
- 5.30pm – DUNBOYNE (11/1)
1.30 Turners Novice Chase
My NAP of the week, runs in the Turners with MIGHTY POTTER (6/5) having improved with every run this year. The only black mark against him is the run at the festival last year and I am happy to forgive that. He travels and jumps superbly and I can’t see anything being able to beat him. Banbridge is a horse I like, but needs good ground and may just be a shade below the top level. Appreciate It won the winner of the worst Supreme since Summerville Boy and is a 9 year old novice. There is nothing else to beat.
2.10 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle
The defection of Shoot First and the non-declaration of Perceval Lagallois have opened this race right up. Salvador Ziggy is a horse I really like, having put him up in Week 10 of Staking a Claim at 25/1. The booking of Aidan Kelly (taking off 7) is eye catching but I fear that he would be better served by better ground. Good Time Jonny is respected with for the Wiley Tony Martin and a claiming Jockey but preference is given to MAXXUM (7/1) for Gordon Elliot who has won this race 3 and had 3 runners up in the last 5 years. He will have to overcome the poor record of Qualifier Winners and a poor run at the DRF but he trounced a decent field at the Leopardstown Christmas Qualifier which has produced 3 of the last 5 winners. The booking of Davy Russel in the saddle is never a negative and the talk after Christmas was that this could be a future Stayers Hurdle horse. If that’s the case, he should be going close here off 145.
2.50 Ryanair Chase
An impossible race to call for me. If Shiskin is at his best, he wins this race easily. However, at the prices, and with his unpredictable nature in the last year, I couldn’t be backing him at odds on.
That being said, he was very good on his debut at the trip and there is limited appeal elsewhere. Janidil has been the wise guy each way pick but also has potential to bounce after his reappearance while it is hard to forgive Blue Lord’s dismal effort at the DRF.
I’ll sit and watch this one -No Bet.
3.30 Stayers Hurdle
The Main Event of day 3 sees a competitive renewal of the Stayers Hurdle. BLAZING KHAL (7/2) was very impressive on his return in the Boyne Hurdle and was one of my Horses to watch this year. His preparation hasnt been ideal but with Charles Byrnes, you can be sure he will be right for the big day. At 7 years old, and lightly raced, my suspicion is that we haven’t seen the best of him yet.
The stars seem to have aligned for Teahupoo, who has his preferred soft ground but I wonder if he is best seen first time out and while his Galmoy hurdle was visually impressive, it was run at a crawl, developed into a sprint and the opposition was below what he will face today. I don’t think Flooring Porter has been at his best this year and come here off an interrupted prep, while Klassical Dream and Home by the Lee have tried and failed in this race in the past and I can’t see why they would be successful this time around.
4.10 Plate
So Scottish has been short price favourite for this race since ante-post markets came up but a couple of JP hotpots have been turned over in handicaps this week and at the prices, despite Emmet Mullins being a genius and the horse being dropped weight on appeal, has to be taken on.
I put up Coole Cody (at 40/1) in my ante-post column on the basis that he is running off 2 pounds lower than when he won the race last year. At 28/1 with extra places, I wouldn’t put anyone off an each way punt with extra places. However, the main selection is FRERO BANBOU (12/1) who was 3rd in the Grand Annual on soft ground last year off a 6 pound higher mark. He has always shaped like a step up in trip would suit and Venetia in soft ground is never a negative.
4.50 Mares Novice Hurdle
After the disappointment of my antepost pick Ashroe Diamond not making the Festival, I have regrouped and am still ready to take on the Fav. She has looked impressive but the English novice form has been shown to be far inferior to the Irish and at 6/4 she is opposable, carrying a 5 pound penalty.
While MODEL KINGDOM (33/1) was beaten by Magical Zoe at Down Royal, she is better at the weights today, It was her defeat by the hugely impressive Impaire Et Passe
Last time out that caught the eye. She travelled well for a long way, and the pair pulled well clear of the 3rd. She was a highly regarded bumper horse last year and at this price she can’t go unbacked.
5.30 Kim Muir
In an amateur riders race, backing Jamie Codd and Patrick Mullins is never a bad shout. Here with the latter on the talented but unreliable Mr Incredible, preference is for DUNBOYNE (11/1) under Jamie Codd. Just touched off in the Thystes chase last time out, he will love the ground and the trip and Elliot/Codd have a great record in the race.
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ALREADY ADVISED: Cheltenham Day 3 Tips Race by Race
Yes, we won’t miss a single race when it comes to providing you with the best Cheltenham Festival betting tips, and as well as a daily NAP,you’ll find tons of other betting tips from lucky 15 bets to the finest each-way picks.
| Time | Race | Odds | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm | Mighty Potter | 11/8 | Read |
| 2.10pm | Salvador Ziggy | 9/1 | Read |
| 2.50pm | Shishkin | 11/10 | Read |
| 3.30pm | Blazing Khal | 11/4 | Read |
| 4.10pm | Coole Cody | 33/1 | Read |
| 4.50pm | Luccia | 7/4 | Read |
| 5.30pm | TBC | TBC | Read |
2023 Cheltenham Day 3 Race Schedule
| START TIMES | RACE | DISTANCE | TYPE | TELEVISED |
| 13:30 | The Turners Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) | 2m abt 4f | Chase | ITV |
| 14:10 | The Pertemps Network Final (A Handicap Hurdle Race) (Listed) | Abt 3m | Hurdle | ITV |
| 14:50 | The Ryanair Steeple Chase (Grade 1) (feature race) |
2m abt 5f | Chase | ITV |
| 15:30 | The Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) | abt 3m | Hurdle | ITV |
| 16:10 | The Craft Irish Whiskey Co. Plate (A Handicap Steeple Chase) (Grade 3) | 2m abt 5f | Chase | ITV |
| 16:50 | The Mares Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) | 2m 1f | Hurdle | |
| 17:30 | Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (sponsored by the JRL Group) (0-145) | 3m abt 2f | Chase |
2023 Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Ante-Post Betting Tips
Day 3 is always an exciting one, with both the Stayers’ Hurdle and the Ryanair Chase among the most popular to back. As always, our resident tipsters have been hard at work in the leadup to Cheltenham, studying form and all the latest news to bring you the finest ante-post betting tips you’ll find on the Thursday of Cheltenham.
Take a look at our top picks below…
Mighty Potter to win the Turners Novices Chase
This horse is the apple of Jack Kennedy’s eye and you can see why. A double G1 winner over hurdles, Gordon said we would not see the best of this lad until he jumped a fence and how right he was. He’s 3/3 over the large obstacles this season with 2 impressive displays in the Drinmore and at the Dublin Racing Festival. He has gone to a new level this season and has seemed to improve for every run. His jumping is grand, goes on both soft/heavy and good ground and has plenty of speed.
I believe he has it all and is the perfect type for the Turners. It’s a division that has disappointed me slightly this year with the novice chasers not as good as I thought they might be. In my opinion, Banbridge is the main danger to this beast but I don’t believe any of the field will get close to him. He’s the stand out horse in this field and should justify a short price to win with his head in his chest.
Bet on Mighty Potter with a free bet offer on Cheltenham
Blazing Khal to outstay them in the Stayers Hurdle
- Blazing Khal (Stayers Hurdle)
- Current Odds – 6/1 with bet365
The market has reacted to the above and cut the horse by two points since Sunday but I still believe Blazing Khal at 6/1 to win the Stayers Hurdle is fair and you can bet on the Stayers Hurdle non runner no bet with some bookies now.
Home by the Lee winning the Railway Bar Lismullen Hurdle at Navan was not expected and as a result, it asked questions regarding the form and longer-term potential of Bob Olinger, Zanahiyr and reigning Stayers Hurdle champ Flooring Porter.
The Stayers Hurdle division is one that is often windy and difficult to grasp, especially so early in a season. There is always a chance you get horses stepping up in trip who aren’t quite good enough to compete at 2m or horses who have gone chasing but failed/disappointed. But even with many unknowns, I think Blazing Khal will be at the top of this division this season.
Blazing Khal hasn’t been seen since winning at Cheltenham last December due to an injury setback that cut his novice hurdle season short. At the time he was AP favourite for the Albert Bartlett and looked a worthy favourite at that time. He had three runs last season and stepped up in trip on each occasion (2m3, 2m5, 3m) and he looked better the further he went.
His love for Cheltenham was evident on both starts there last season and I can only see this horse progressing and being a huge player in the staying hurdle division. The form can be questioned but he beat subsequent G1 winner Gelino Bello twice including a 4 ¼ length win over 3m.
Back Blazing Khal in the Stayers’ at 6/1 with bet365!
Salvador Ziggy the answer in the Pertemps Network Final
- Selection: Salvador Ziggy (Pertemps)
- 25/1 with Paddy Power
I think the Pertemps is a bit of an exception as it is usually pretty clear to see which horses are being aimed at the race.
Maxxum jumped to the head of the market with a 16-length romp in the Leopardstown qualifier over the Christmas period. He has now gone up 39 pounds in his last two starts, which would guarantee him a run. He is closely followed in the market by Charles Byrnes Shoot First who won the Cheltenham qualifier. However, winners of Qualifiers have an atrocious record in the Final (two wins in the last 20). Indeed it has paid to look out for those sneaking in the final places (four places this year having been six for the last few years). It also pays to follow Gordon Elliot in the face, between 2017 and 2021, he had 11 runners in the race. Three won and seven of the other eight finished in the top five.
And sure enough, coming in fourth place in the October Cheltenham Qualifier was Gordon’s Savador Ziggy. This horse has current Stayers Hurdle Fav Home by the Lee in trouble when he ran out in Down Royal, Where he gave this rival and solid yardstick Off You Go and Ronald Pump seven pounds and a beating. Home by the Lee is now rated 157 which makes me believe that Salvador Ziggy could have plenty in hand. He ran off 145 in Cheltenham and shouldn’t receive more than a couple of pounds for that run (third place An Tailliur got three) so a mark around 147 is very workable. He could also be in the region of 12 pounds better off with Shoot First for that four length defeat, and yet is five times the price. Botox Has who came second in that race went on to frank the form, winning next time in Haydock (blowing his own handicap mark in the process).
Salvador Ziggy has a timeform rating of 146 which makes him the fourth highest Novice hurdler (ahead of the likes of Gaelic Warrior and Grangeclare West) and has just gone seven so should still be improving and will love the better spring ground. The plan is to go straight to the Pertemps but Gordon likes to enter a few at the Warwick Meeting in Mid Jan to check on Handicap Marks. An entry for Salvador Ziggy could see a market move so the 25/1 on offer with BF/PP is well with a punt now. (A lack of entry wouldn’t be the biggest concern as he has already run in a British Handicap).
Mares Novices Hurdle can go to Luccia
Luccia is a short enough favourites but she has been impressive on the track and in my opinion, justifies that favouritism. I also think it’s very likely that she will be aimed at the race.
LUCCIA (4/1 Mares Novice Hurdle) sits at the top of the market for the Mares Novice Hurdle after an impressive win on hurdles debut at Newbury. Already favourite for the race before her seasonal reappearance due to a 17-length win in the EBF Mares bumper at Sandown in March, the Nicky Henderson trained mare strengthened that position after taking to hurdles with ease.
Like the triumph, I am expecting more horses to come out and throw their hat into the ring for this race throughout the winter but Luccia has set a high standard for this division and it will need a good one to get the better of her come March.
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Where Can I Bet On Cheltenham Festival Day 3?
There will be plenty of money backed on Day 3 of the festival as we start to approach long weekend territory, and with the Stayers’ Hurdle and Ryanair Chase, the bookies have plenty of offers going on.
The likes of SBK and LiveScoreBet have a great offering when it comes to Cheltenham with superb offers and great value odds, while the big hitters like Coral, Betway, William Hill and 888sport will all have plenty of markets for you to back too.
All our favourite bookies will be offering odds on each race across both Day 3 and the festival. To start playing, simply clikc a bookie below, sign-up and away you go…
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Turners Novice Chase Trends & Stats 2023
- Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7
- Price – 4 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 10/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
- Last Run – 9 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Turners Novices Chase, 9/12 winners ran in the last 54 days
- Previous Course Form – 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 8/12 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
- Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 10/12 had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs
- Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles, 9/12 winners had at least 3 wins over hurdles
- Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
- Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 146 or higher
- Graded Wins – 9/12 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1 or 2 race
- Season Form – 12/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 2 wins that season
Pertemps Final Trends & Stats 2023
- Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8
- Price – 2 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 4/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting, 8/12 winners were priced 10/1 or bigger
- Last Run – 3/12 winners won on their last run before the Pertemps Final, 11/12 winners had their last run with the last 61 days
- 6/12 winners ran in a Pertemps Qualifier on their last run, 1 of the 6 won, 2 placed
- Previous Course Form – 7/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 3/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
- Previous Distance Form – 10/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 23-25 furlongs, 8/12 winners had at least 1 win over 23-25 furlongs
- Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 6 previous runs over hurdles, 8/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
- Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 138 or higher
- Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 5/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
Ryanair Chase Trends & Stats 2023
- Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 7-9
- Price – 6 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 11/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
- Last Run – 6 of the last 12 winners won on their previous run before Ryanair Chase, 11/12 winners ran within the last 77 days
- 3/12 winners ran in the King George VI Chase (Kempton) on their last run, 0 of the 3 won, 1 placed
- 2/12 winners ran in the Ascot Chase (Ascot) on their last run, 2 of the 2 won, 0 placed
- Previous Course Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs at Cheltenham, 8/12 winners have had a previous win at Cheltenham
- Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 4 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 10/12 winners had at least 2 wins over 19-21 furlongs
- Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 8/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
- Previous Chase Form – 10/12 winners had at least 7 chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 4 chase wins
- Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 162 or higher
- Graded Wins – 11/12 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race, 9/12 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1 race
- Season Form – 8/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
Stayers Hurdle Trends & Stats 2023
- Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8
- Price – 4 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 6/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
- Last Run – 7 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Stayers Hurdle, 10/12 winners had their last run with 80 days
- 5/12 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle (Cheltenham) on their last run, 3 of the 5 won, 1 placed
- Previous Course Form – 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 7/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
- Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 3 runs over 23-25 furlongs, 8/12 winners had at least 2 wins over 23-25 furlongs
- Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 8 previous runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 4 previous wins over hurdles
- Rating – 9/12 winners were rated 156 or higher
- Grade 1 Wins – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous grade 1 win
- Grade 2 Wins – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous grade 2 win
- Season Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 9/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
Festival Plate Trends & Stats 2023
- Age – 8 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9
- Price – 4 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 5/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
- Weight – 9/12 winners carried less than 11st
- Last Run – 5/12 winners won on their last run before the Festival Plate, 8/12 winners had their last run within the last 47 days
- Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 4/12 winners had a previous win at Cheltenham
- Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs
- Previous Hurdle Form – 10/12 winners had at least 5 runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles
- Previous Chase Form – 10/12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs, 9/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins
- Rating – 9/12 winners had a rating of 140 or higher
- Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 9/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
Mares Novices Hurdle Trends & Stats 2023
- Age – 7 of the last 7 winners were aged 5 or 6
- Price – 3 of the last 7 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 5/7 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
- Last Run – 4 of the last 7 winners won on their last run before the Dawn Run Mares Novice Hurdle, 6/7 winners ran within the last 47 days
- 2/7 winners ran in the Solerina Mares Hurdle (Fairyhouse) on their last run, 2 of the 2 won, 0 placed
- 2/7 winners ran in the Mares Handicap Hurdle (Leopardstown) on their last run, 0 of the 2 won, 2 placed
- Previous Course Form – 2/7 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham , 0/7 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
- Previous Distance Form – 4/7 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 6/7 had at least 1 previous win over 15-17 furlongs
- Previous Hurdle Form – 7/7 winners had at least 2 previous runs over hurdles, 5/7 winners had at least 3 previous runs over hurdles, 6/7 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles
Rating – 5/7 winners were rated 136 or higher - Graded Wins – 4/7 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
- Season Form – 7/7 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 6/7 winners had at least 1 win that season
Kim Muir Trends & Stats 2023
- Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9
- Price – 3 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
- Weights – 10/12 winners carried 11st 1lb or more
- Last Run – 1 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Kim Muir Challenge Cup, 11/12 winners had their last run within the last 76 days
- Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous Cheltenham run, 3/12 had at least 1 previous Cheltenham win
- Previous Distance Form – 8/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 24-26 furlongs, 5/12 winners had at least 1 win over 24-26 furlongs
- Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles, 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over hurdles
- Previous Chase Form – 11/12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
- Rating – 10/12 winners were rated 137 or higher
- Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs that season, 3/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
What Are Other Pundits Predicting For Cheltenham Festival Day 3?
As well as all our best picks for Day 3 of Cheltenham, you’ll also find plenty of pundits having their say too, both on the television and in the wider media. Many have great reputations for picking winners and we’ll always pluck out the best and place them on our pundits tips page.
Legends like Ruby Walsh and AP McCoy will be having their say on ITV Racing, while popular pundits including Matt Chapman and Kevin Blake are among the best out there for their predictions. They’re always worth looking up and you’ll find them all right here with TAG to then go and place your bets on.
2023 Cheltenham Festival Free Bets for Day 3
Whether you’re up, down or breaking even, placing a Cheltenham bet with a free bet is always worthwhile, and across Day 3 there will be plenty of offers to make the most of. We pride ourselves on collating all the very best, so whether you’re looking for a top Betfred Cheltenham offer or the latest SBK are bringing, we’ve got you covered.
You’ll find a selection of our favourite free bets to place on Cheltenham below, while there are many more, as well as all the details for signing up on our free bet page.
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