Brown Advisory Plate Merribelle Stakes 2021 Tips – Preview, Odds, Trends and Betting Tip
The Brown Advisory is a Grade 3 handicap chase over 2 and a half miles, with runners having to negotiate seventeen fences.
While the very competitive nature of this race, as well as the added risk of each horse not running is reflected in the current odds, picking out a winner can be a rewarding venture, especially given the juicy ante-post prices.
With many potential runners holding entries for other races at the festival, the recommendation would be to play with a bookmaker offering non-runner no bet if possible, although this will be taken into consideration in the price.
Last year’s running saw Harry Whittington’s Simply The Betts prevail under a strong and tenacious ride from Gavin Sheehan, after being well supported and going off clear favourite at 100/30.
While the past form of trainers may not be worth much in these types of races, it is worth noting that since 2010 David Pipe has won this contest on three occasions, with the Irish horses also enjoying some success in recent years.
Brown Advisory Plate 2021 Odds
|Caribeam Boy||16/1||William Hill|
|Espoir De Romay||18/1||bet365|
Brown Advisory Plate Preview
- Chatham Street Lad
Janidil is a 7-year-old, currently trained by Willie Mullins after starting his career across the channel in France.
Since his move to the Mullins yard, he has run against some high-quality opposition, most notably a respectable 5th to stablemate Monkfish in last years’ Albert Bartlett, as well as a 2¼ beating of Buildmeupbuttercup, before his most recent run-in a Grade 1 novices chase on Boxing Day against Asterion Forlonge and Colreevy.
The form illustrates that the gelding runs best on softer ground, and with excellent form going left-handed, including victories at both Naas and Tipperary, Janidil would certainly have to enter any punters consideration if the rain comes prior to the festival.
Another horse towards the top of the ante-post market is the Gordon Elliot trained Conflated. While this horse has only had one win to his name back in early December, there is plenty to admire.
Indeed, he showed his potential in his December triumph at Navan as he won from the front and successfully saw off the challenge of the odds-on and highly regarded The Big Getaway.
Following this win he ran in a grade 1 novice chase, involving the aforementioned, and RSA Chase favourite, Monkfish and the ever-consistent Latest Exhibition, but it proved to be a difficult race for this horse, with the extra half-mile doing Conflated little favours.
However, this promising sort would be back coming down in trip if heading for the Brown Advisory and, like Jandil, could have a cracking chance in this handicap if he gets the soft to heavy ground he appears to thrive on.
Chatham Street Lad
The 9-year-old, trained by the much-loved Mick Winters, received a lot of praise after his success in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup last December, making a mockery of his opposition and staying on strongly to go clear of the field after the penultimate fence.
That in itself illustrates some strong course and distance form, although it’s difficult to say where Chatham Street Lad will head come March, given this has been a rather unprecedented purple patch for the 9-year-old.
It was said by Winters that the owners are not afraid to spend some money as far as entries go, after already being entered for races including the Arkle, Ryanair and the Marsh, but handicaps are not out of the question at all as they are likely to be a more realistic target.
If the owners do fancy entering this horse for the Brown Advisory, however, he would most certainly have to be on everyone’s shortlist as a punting prospect.
At a slightly bigger price in the current ante-post market is Venetia Williams’ Ibleo, who has been remarkably consistent since his lengthy break after wind surgery, which appears to have revitalised him completely, with three victories to his name as well as hitting the crossbar on 3 successive runs.
He has been gradually raised in the weights by the handicapper through the past year or so but is yet to show he is fully in their grip yet and could go well here if running from a handy enough mark.
The main negative for Ibleo may well be the trip, with the 8-year-old tending to have more joy running over shorter distances around the 2-mile mark, and with 11 of the last 12 winners of this race having had at least 3 previous runs between 2m3f and 2m5f.
However, Venetia Williams has won this race previously with horses at huge prices, so again cannot be dismissed.
Another which catches the eye at a bigger price is Oliver Sherwood’s Sevarano, who had a 100% record over fences before finishing midfield behind surprise winner Paint The Dream who ran an absolute cracker of a race from the front. That race never materialised as expected for Sevarano and the 8-year-old can be excused for the run.
If he runs here and gets around with a good jumping display as showed in his previous runs this season, he is certainly not without a chance and may represent some value at the 33/1 (25/1 non-runner no bet) on offer.
Brown Advisory Plate Ante-Post Betting Tip
EACH-WAY BET: Sevarano – 25/1 with Paddy Power (NRNB)
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Brown Advisory Plate Trends
Age – 8 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8.
Price – 3 of the last 12 favourites have won, 4/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.
Weight – 10/12 winners weighed below 11st.
Last Run – 4/12 winners won on their last run before the Festival Plate, 8/12 winners had their last run within the last 47 days.
Previous Course Form – 9/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 2/12 winners had a previous win at Cheltenham.
Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 19-21 furlongs.
Previous Hurdle Form – 10/12 winners had at least 5 runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win over hurdles.
Previous Chase Form – 9/12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs, 9/12 winners had at least 2 previous chase wins.
Rating – 10/12 winners had a rating of 136 or higher.
Season Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 8/12 winners had at least 1 win that season.
Brown Advisory Merribelle Stakes Recent Winners
|2009||Something Wells||W Biddick||Venetia Williams|
|2010||Great Endeavour||Danny Cook||David Pipe|
|2011||Holmwood Legend||Keiran Burke||Patrick Rodford|
|2012||Salut Flo||Tom Scudamore||David Pipe|
|2013||Carrickboy||Liam Treadwell||Venetia Williams|
|2014||Ballynagour||Tom Scudamore||David Pipe|
|2015||Darna||David Bass||Kim Bailey|
|2016||Empire of Dirt||B J Cooper||C A Murphy|
|2017||Road To Respect||B J Cooper||Noel Meade|
|2018||The Storyteller||Davy Russell||Gordon Elliott|
|2019||Siruh Du Lac||Lizzie Kelly||Nick Williams|
|2020||Simply The Betts||Gavin Sheehan||Harry Whittington|
Brown Advisory Merribelle Stakes Result 2020
1st – Simply The Betts (10/3)
2nd – Happy Diva – (20/1)
3rd – Mister Whitaker (22/1)
4th – Oldgrandgewood (11/1)
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