Ryanair Chase Betting Tips, Trends & Predictions 2024 – Thursday 14th March 2.50pm
Our Cheltenham Festival expert tipster Adam O’Brien has been through the 2024 Ryanair Chase, ran on day 3 of the Festival, and picked out his best bet for the race.
Now in its 20th year, the Ryanair Chase still holds it’s bridesmaid status as a Championship race due to it often being referred to as the race used for the not quite good enough Gold Cup or Champion Chase horses.
At the time of writing (23rd January) it’s quite likely that the majority of the fancied horses for this race have raced their last race before Cheltenham and as a result, I cannot see much market movement from now until the off. I believe we’ve seen all known form on offer and apart from knowing the weather/ground, the race is in a good position to read, barring any last-minute switcheroos from the proper Championship races.
I cannot see a huge field going to post with a whole heap of runners entered but unlikely to show up. Jonbon, El Fabiolo, Pic D’Orhy, Conflated, Fastorslow, Greaneteen, Sir Gerhard and Capodanno all have other targets or won’t make the Festival.
2011 (Albertas Run) was the last 10 YO to win this race with 9 of the last 12 winners being aged 7 or 8. This year’s race has a bit of an older feel to it with 4 of the top 8 in the betting having turned 10 at the start of the year. Last year’s winner Envoi Allen, 2021 Supreme winner Appreciate It and 2022 Arkle winner Edwardstone will have to do something no horse has achieved for 13 years if they are going to be taking Michael O’Leary’s money here.
Ryanair Chase 2024 Main Contenders
The Ryanair is a race that has been good to the top of the market with 17 out of the last 19 winners coming from the top 3 in the betting.
Banbridge is now 4/1 fav after his winning reappearance in the Silviniaco Conti on the weekend (20th January). That form should hold up after defeating Pic D’Orhy by 1 ¾ lengths. That was on Good to Soft and that is as bad as Banbridge would ideally have it. He excels on good ground and is a real player if the ground is good on the day. He’s 2 from 2 at Cheltenham having won the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at the 2022 festival and then the Arkle trial at the November meeting in 2022 in his Novice Chase campaign. That Novice Chase campaign saw him aimed at the Turners Novices Chase in 2023 only for him to be a non-runner on the day due to the soft ground. That is the danger with a horse who is so ground-dependent. He is a fine horse on his day and has a massive chance in this but for an Ante-Post play, it’s very difficult to commit to him so far out. He is the typical example of ‘bet on the day’ type of horse.
The Silviniaco Conti Chase that Banbridge won (above) on the weekend saw Edwardstone at the 2 ½ mile trip for only the second time in his career (his only other attempt was over hurdles in 2021). Connections decided to step up in trip after it was beaten in the Tingle Creek by Jonbon. He was keen throughout and ended a disappointing 24 lengths adrift and was 4th of 4 finishers. It might be that connections revert to the shorter trip and target the Champion Chase again. A horse who was well touted for the Ryanair before (and went off 5/2j fav on the weekend), he has now doubled in price and there are now too many question marks over his ability and his participation in the race.
Third in the betting STAGE STAR is a dual course/distance winner and was the winner of the Turners Novices chase at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. He then won the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November on reappearance off a hefty weight to push him towards the top of the betting and lay down a marker for the race. That is strong form with 4th place Fugituf then taking the December Gold Cup 4 weeks later. He has since drifted in the market due to being pulled up at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day when trying to give lumps of weight to the field. I think that was a big ask and after his trainer Paul Nichols hinted in November that he could go straight to the Festival, this race was almost an afterthought. With that considered I’d be happy to write that run off. He won’t run again now before the Festival and will be freshened up. He’s a huge player in this and ticks a lot of boxes needed to win this race and is now at a price worth backing.
Last year’s winner Envoi Allen isn’t without a chance. His form at anywhere other than Cheltenham or Down Royal is poor and it is hard to be confident of him in many races now. If you were backing him you would be clinging on to his Cheltenham form and hoping he could put up one last big effort at Prestbury Park again
Appreciate It ran poorly on the weekend when trailing 24 lengths behind Allaho. You would have to be worried about his ability, the best trip or the best way to ride him now. I don’t believe he can win a Ryanair and seems to be on a downward curve.
15 of the last 19 winners have won at Cheltenham before which doesn’t bode well for others such as Fil Dor (2nd in a Triumph and down the field in a Coral Cup) and Classic Getaway (pulled up in an Albert Bartlett).
Last year’s 3rd HITMAN is in the market at a (in my opinion) crazy price of 80/1 with Bet365. The horse has his flaws and is often weak but with placing in a Grade 1 on his only run at Cheltenham, I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him at that price. Fugituf is the only other horse I want to mention. 4th to Stage Star in November and then winning a month later is strong form and even though he’s not young at 9, he could run his race and be an EW play at 33/1. He had 2 entries on the weekend at Cheltenham and I’m really interested to see how well he performs in the Clarence House.
I’m happy to take a chance and back the younger horse in STAGE STAR. He has the right profile for the race and if he can repeat his performance in the Paddy Power Gold Cup in November then it will take a good one to beat him.
Ryanair Chase Tips
Back Stage Star – 1pt win only at 7/1 with bet365’s Cheltenham sign-up offer.
Hitman – Each-way at 80/1 with bet365.
Follow Adam on Twitter for more Cheltenham insight – @OB_14
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Ryanair Chase Trends
- Age – 11 of the last 12 winners have been ages 7-9
- Price – 4 of the last 12 favorites/joint favorites have won, 10/12 winners have been in the top 3 in the betting
- Last Run – 4 of the last 12 winners won on their previous run before Ryanair Chase, 11/12 winners ran within the last 77 days
- 4/12 winners ran in the King George VI Chase (Kempton) on their last run, 0 of the 4 won, 1 placed
- 3/12 winners ran in the Ascot Chase (Ascot) on their last run, 2 of the 3 won, 1 placed
- Previous Course Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs at Cheltenham, 9/12 winners have had a previous win at Cheltenham
- Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, 10/12 winners had at least 2 wins over 19-21 furlongs
- Previous Hurdle Form – 12/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 9/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
- Previous Chase Form – 10/12 winners had at least 7 chase runs, 10/12 winners had at least 4 chase wins
- Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 161 or higher
- Graded Wins – 11/12 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race, 9/12 winners had at least 1 win in a grade 1 race
- Season Form – 8/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season
Cheltenham Festival 2024 Tips
Get all our Cheltenham Festival 2024 tips and predictions for each race below, as well as a link to each preview and the key stats and trends for all 28 races between Tuesday 12th and Friday 15th March 2024.
Day 1 Tips
| Race | Tip | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Supreme Novice Hurdle | Slade Steel (EW) | 9/2 |
| 2.10pm - Arkle | Gaelic Warrior | 7/2 |
| 2.50pm - Ultima Handicap | Chianti Classico (EW) | 15/2 |
| Trelawne (EW) | 15/2 | |
| 3.30pm - Champion Hurdle | Iberico Lord W/O State Man AND Irish Point | 15/8 |
| 4.10pm - Mares' Hurdle | Telmesomethinggirl WITHOUT Lossiemouth AND Ashroe Diamond (EW) | 5/1 |
| 4.50pm - Boodles Fred Winter | Palamon (EW) | 20/1 |
| Ose Partir (EW) | 14/1 | |
| 5.30pm - National Hunt Chase | Salvador Ziggy | 11/2 |
Day 2 Tips
| Race | Tip | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle | Predators Gold (ew) | 10/1 Bet |
| 2.10pm - Brown Advisory Novice Chase | Fact to File | 10/11 |
| 2.50pm - Coral Cup | Guard Your Dreams (ew) | 25/1 |
| Brazil (ew) | 16/1 | |
| 3.30pm - Queen Mother Champion Chase | El Fabiolo double with Ballyburn (1.30pm) | 5/4 |
| 4.10pm - Cross Country Chase | Coko Beach | 4/1 |
| 4.50pm - Grand Annual Chase | Liberty Hunter (ew) | 13/2 |
| 5.30pm - Champion Bumper | C’est Ta Chance (ew) | 16/1 |
| Cantico (ew) | 12/1 |
Day 3 Tips
| Race | Tip | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Turners Novice Chase | Ginnys Destiny | 4/1 |
| 2.10pm - Pertemps Network Final | Cuthbertdibble | 9/1 |
| 2.50pm - Ryanair Chase | Stage Star | 9/2 |
| 3.30pm - Stayers Hurdle | Teahupoo | 7/4 |
| 4.10pm - Plate Handicap Chase | Theatre Man (ew) | 9/2 |
| 4.50pm - Mares Novice Hurdle | Brighterdaysahead | 13/8 |
| 5.30pm - Kim Muir Chase | Whacker Clan | 12/1 |
Day 4 Tips
| Race | Tip | Bet |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30pm - Triumph Hurdle | Majborough | 9/2 |
| 2.10pm - County Hurdle | King of Kingsfield | 5/1 |
| So Scottish (ew) | 14/1 | |
| 2.50pm - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle | Gidleigh Park | 7/1 |
| 3.30pm - Cheltenham Gold Cup | Galopin Des Champs | 11/10 |
| 4.10pm - Festival Challenge Cup Hunters Chase | It's on the Line | 9/4 |
| Premier Magic | 13/2 | |
| 4.50pm - Paddy Power Mares Chase | Riviere D’Etel (each-way) | 20/1 |
| 5.30pm - Martin Pipe Hurdle | Better Days Ahead | 10/1 |