Grand National 2023 Tips – Predicting the 1-2-3 in the Big Race at Aintree

The Grand National is always a massive betting event and we have asked Ciaran to try and predict which three horses will finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the Aintree race on Saturday 14th April 2023.

Betting on the Grand National is always a tough puzzle to solve but in last year’s preview, Ciaran managed to tip the winner of the race, where Noble Yeats defied the 50/1 odds to win. He is back to defend his crown this year but will Noble Yeats be another Grand National betting tip from us at thatsagoal?

Ciaran has given his three best Grand National tips for the race and at the time of writing, the odds are 16/1, 25/1 and 33/1. As with every year at the Grand National, the closer we get to the start of the race, the shorter the odds will go with all the bookies so try and get your bets on early.

 

What I Look for when Betting on the Modern Grand National 

Age: While Historically, the National was seen as a race for older more experienced types, the race has not been won by a horse over 9 since Pineau de Re in 2014. Last year’s winner Noble Yeats also disproved the idea that 7-year-olds cannot win the race. I am of the view that it’s a young person’s game and I am looking at the 7/8 year olds. 

Racing Style: While the Grand National, at 4 Miles and 2 ½ furlongs, is, without doubt, a test of stamina, it also favours those with tactical speed. This can help them to get a position in what will be a sprint along the line of the first 4 fences. Most recent winners had graded from over 2 mile or mid-range trips. (Tiger roll was a Triumph Hurdle winner and Rule the World was a Grade 2 winner over 2 ½ miles). Even though last year’s winner Noble Yeats was actually last jumping the first fence, I would favour prominent racers. 

Previous Attempts: I would tend to favour those who are unexposed at marathon trips, and having your first attempt over the Aintree National fences is no longer a negative in my eyes. With the notable exception of the Tiger, 4 of the last 5 winners were having their first attempt at the race. One notable exception is that the Irish National can be a nice pointer to future winners.

 

Predicting the 2023 Grand National 1-2-3

Bearing in mind, the trends above, my main selection for the race is GAILLARD DU MESNIL (16/1 with bet365) who is also one of the grey horses running in the Grand National this year. A Grade 1 winner over both fences and hurdles, from 2 ½ to 3 miles, he was just over 1 length behind the now 166-rated Ahoy Senor in last year’s Brown Advisory Chase at Cheltenham. He then went on to finish a well backed 3rd in the Irish National before winning again at this year’s Cheltenham Festival. At the weights lunch, Willie was keen to mention him when the interviewer did not and I get the impression that even though the national Hunt Chase was the long term plan, this was always going to come after. If he has recovered from that festival run, he has all the tools needed to run a huge race off just 11 stone. 

Another Mullins horse on my Radar is CAPODANNO (25/1 with Coral). Again, a Grade 1 winner over Fences who was mentioned as a Gold Cup Horse by Willie at the start of the year before being ruled out of the first half of the season. He shaped well on reappearance when he clearly needed the run and has historically improved from his seasonal reappearance. At 7 years old, he is completely unexposed at marathon trips and if the unique test of the national can unlock some improvement, he won’t be far away. 

Just behind Capodanno in that Grade 1 success at Punchestown last year was LIFETIME AMBITION (33/1 with William Hill). There won’t be a better jumper in the field and he ran very well in the Grand Sefton over these fences in November. The issue that day, and it is the concern here, is whether he will stay. Jessica Harrington has said that she doesn’t see this as a concern and he seemed to stay slightly better when beaten by The Big Dog in the Troytown over 3m. He will give you a great spin for your money from the front in any case. 

At the head of the market, I am happy to take on most of the favourites. Corach Rambler will need an awful lot of luck to win given his run style and tendency to come through horses as the race progresses. Noble Yeats owes me nothing after tipping him to win last year (and place in the Gold Cup), but he is carrying a huge amount of weight. Any Second Now is having his 3rd attempt at the race and while undoubtedly a brilliant horse, at 11, he may have missed his chance. Similarly, I don’t see why Delta Work or Longhouse Poet would win, when they had no excuses last year and are a year older in this year’s race. 

 

Grand National 2023 1-2-3 Prediction

1. Gaillard Du Mesnil (16/1)
2. Capodano (25/1)
3. Lifetime Ambition (33/1)

 

Grand National 2023 Free Bets

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