Horse Racing Tips: 1,000 Guineas Ante-post Preview

In the past decade, Aidan O’Brien has not quite held complete dominion over the 1,000 Guineas.

However, with five winners in that period, including four of the last five, and 16 entries this year, including the hot ante-post favourite, Santa Barbara, his grip on the first fillies’ Classic may take some loosening.

 

O’Brien Bullish About Santa Barbara

The once-raced Camelot filly Santa Barbara (15/8 with Paddy Power) is the obvious starting point. An easy, 2½-length winner of a competitive mile maiden at the Curragh last September, her trainer has already stated, ‘She has done unbelieveably well in physical terms over the winter. She looks like a five-year-old colt.’ Such bullish remarks may account for sustained market support in recent weeks, from 10/1 in mid-March, but any value is long gone and, as O’Brien admitted, ‘… she’s going to learn a lot from racing.’

 

Pretty Gorgeous Ticks All the Boxes

According to the bookmakers, the principal danger to Santa Barbara is likely to be Pretty Gorgeous (7/1 with Bet365), trained by Joseph Patrick O’Brien. The Lawman filly is already a Group One winner on the Rowley Mile, having kept on well to beat the previous May Hill Stakes winner Indigo Girl (12/1 with Betfred) by half a length in the bet365 Fillies’ Mile last October. That form entitles her, once again, to beat Mother Earth (16/1 with Betfred), Dubai Fountain (33/1 with Paddy Power), Shale (20/1 with Paddy Power), Star Of Emaraaty (100/1 with Bet365), Snowfall (66/1 with Paddy Power) and Isabella Giles (50/1 with Paddy Power). All three wins have come with cut in the ground, but she has comparable form on faster going and her previous experience could prove invaluable.

 

Trial Winners Make Only Limited Appeal

The major trials for the 1,000 Guineas, the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket and the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury, have thrown up Sacred (14/1 with Betfred) and Alcohol Free (10/1 with Paddy Power), although neither was particularly impressive nor appeals as a readymade Classic winner in waiting. Notwithstanding her unproven stamina, preference is for the latter, who won the Cheveley Park Stakes on the Rowley Mile last September and remains open to significant improvement after just four starts.

 

Snow Lantern Remains Unexposed

A form line involving Zabeel Queen suggests Snow Lantern (8/1 with Paddy Power) has a few pounds to find with Pretty Gorgeous, but could be misleading, granted that the latter has raced just twice and remains unexposed. She won her maiden, over a mile at Newbury, on her reappearance with something in hand and, if she can build on that effort, may not be an entirely forlorn hope as she attempts to her dam, Sky Lantern, by winning the 1,000 Guineas. On balance, though, she looks short enough for one so inexperienced.

 

1000 Guineas Betting Tip

For those of us who haven’t backed already Santa Barbara at fancy odds, she looks one to take on at short odds, for better or worse. Pretty Gorgeous has reportedly wintered well, appears versatile ground-wise and, unlike her rivals, has no questions to answer with regard to experience, course, distance or anything else. Her current odds seem entirely fair – it’s tricky to find half a dozen entries with the same, or better, credentials – so, for us, she has to be the one.

Selection: Pretty Gorgeous (7/1 with Bet365)

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