Diary of a Punter: Looking for Another Four Timing Lady

Here is how I got on at the weekend:

Man United v Arsenal  – 0.3pts: UNITED WIN 3-2 – 25/1 -0.30
                                           0.2pts: ARSENAL WIN 3-2 – 45/1 -0.20
                                           2pts: OVER 3.5 GOALS – 7/4 -2.00
                                           3pts: OVER 2.5 GOALS – 4/6 +5.00
                                           3.5pts: VAN PERSIE SCORE ANYTIME – 11/10 +7.35
                                           0.5pts: VAN PERSIE HAT-TRICK – 20/1 -0.50

Fulham v Everton, Norwich v Stoke, Sunderland v Villa – 0.5pts: DRAW TREBLE – 37/1 -0.50

Charlton v Middlesbrough – 2pts: BORO TO WIN – 2/1 +6.00

Sheff Wednesday v Peterborough – 1pt: PETERBOROUGH TO WIN – 7/2 -1.00

Liverpool v Newcastle – 1pt: NEWCASTLE TO WIN – 5/1 -1.00
                                           1pt: DEMBA BA SCORE ANYTIME – 11/4 -1.00
                                           2pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 10/11 +3.82

12 bets, Stake 17.00, Returns 22.17

Weekend Profit/Loss:  +5.17 (+30%)

Total Profit/Loss (from starting kitty of 11.25): 30.25 (+19.00) (+168%)

Another solid weekend. Could have been absolutely huge if Van Persie had taken that penalty. Oh well. Three profitable diaries in a row have put me comfortably back in bandit country having made 168% profit so far this season. Not enough. Looking at the Champions League and the Championship fixtures on Tuesday and Wednesday, here are my bets for midweek:

Tuesday 6th

Forest v Middlesbrough

I backed Boro to go to Charlton and get a result and they did, they spanked Charlton 4-1. Boro have now won 6 on the bounce, are the form team in the Championship bar none and have won their last six away from home. Meanwhile, Forest collapsed at home against Millwall (conceding three goals in the last half hour) and got beat 1-4. The worry for me here is that this is Middlesbrough’s 6th game in 17 days. Compare that with Forest’s 6th game in a month and the home side might be a little bit fresher. For me though, fresh or not the side who are stringing wins together for fun are the away side. Wiping a couple of FemFresh all over Boro at 13/5 suits me nicely especially when you take into account Forest’s home form isn’t minty fresh itself (P7 W3 D2 L2) however, Forest haven’t been behind at half-time in any of these home games (1-1 on Saturday before going down 1-4) so small stakes on HT draw isn’t a bad shout.

0.5 pts: BORO TO WIN – 13/5 with Totesport

0.5pts: HT DRAW FT BORO – 7/1 with BlueSq

Burnley v Leeds

Mid-table madness. Twelfth play thirteenth. Burnley have been banging them in all season, and letting them in too. Burnley games averaging over 4 goals per game have been an absolute goldmine this season. Add one Charlie Austin (15 goals this season) and one Lucciano Becchio (9 so far this season) and on first glance this looks like another goalmine. Perhaps not so however. Burnley have a new boss Sean Dyche (an old centre back himself) and he took charge at the weekend, Burnley winning 2-0 keeping only their third clean sheet of the season. Although Leeds league games are averaging over 3 goals per game too, not so much recently, four of their last five having two or less goals. My built-in navigation system tells me this is some kind of derby game so I’m not picking a winner just a brave bet on under 2.5 goals. This could go badly wrong but having just listened to Sean Dyche’s press conference (from before the weekend) you can tell his prorities are sorting that defence out. No doubt after a 2-0 win at home on Saturday he’ll say same again please. Man I hope Romney takes Ohio.

1pt: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 11/8 with Stan James

Watford v Millwall

If Romney takes Ohio, I sure hope Obama takes Florida. Fourteenth plays fifteenth. Gimme a hell yeah. No one likes them but Mirwol are 3rd in the form table and absolutely buzzing (scored 15 in 5 and won 1-4 at Forest the weekend). Unbeaten in 7 they go to a scatty Watford team managed by Elton John and Bernie Taupin. Watford don’t seem like they know wether they are coming or going, having won their last couple at home, they had only taken one point from four at home before that. With Millwall banging in so many at the moment (and having lost only five away games in 2012, including drawing 3 of their last 4) I like the look of them to avoid defeat here.

2pts: MILLWALL TO WIN (DRAW NO BET) – 11/10 general

1pt: HENDERSON TO SCORE ANYTIME – 2/1 with SkyBet

Schalke v Arsenal

Poor Arsenal. One minute they trust him. Then they don’t. Then they trust Bouldy. Now they don’t. One thing I trust is Schalke to give Arsenal a good old fashioned passionate ass-whipping here. Arsenal are getting their shoes, coat and their hat taken. Arsenal have been awful for a few games in a row now and what at first looked like a bad performance against Norwich is starting to look like what this team can do. Even Vermaelen, for me Arsenal’s best player and captain-until-they-sell-him is losing the plot. We should note that Schalke lost only their second game of the season on Saturday but as much as Arsenal will be over the moon with a point, Schalke know a win more or less puts them through. Nothing this Arsenal side have done since they got ruined at home by this hardworking German machine suggests they can avoid the same result again tonight. I will however, cover the Tommy V equalizer bet. When they need a point and are losing by one, he’ll finish the game up front (ref: Koscielny equalizing at the Etihad earlier in the season)

3pts: SCHALKE TO BEAT ARSENAL – 5/6 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts: VERMAELEN SCORE LAST – 33/1 with bWin

Real  Madrid v Dortmund, Chelsea v Shakhtar Donetsk

Both these games look full of goals to me. Two doubles: Over 3.5 and Both Teams To Score.

1pt: BTTS DOUBLE – 7/4 with BetVictor

0.5pts: OVER 3.5 GOALS DOUBLE – 5.72/1 with SportingBet

best of luck everyone having a bet this midweek, I know a lot of you had bad weekends so make some money this week and lets re-group for the weekend coming.

Tweet me @drtwerp

I MISS HER

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