Diary of a Punter: More Profit and a MOBO Nomination

Now I’m no oil painting but Ibrahimovic is one ugly bastard. I’m not bitter but for me, even that Tae-Kwondo shit he did was ugly. It was handy really because whoever was banging on about OH MY GOD THAT WAS SO THE BEST GOAL EVER SEEN can be un-followed.

Incredible technique and athleticism yes but don’t be ridiculous, there was no-one in goal. It was a freak. Do up your flies. After another week of shit games, let’s count ourselves lucky we live in a world where you can fly kites in peace, hold hands with who you like and enjoy proper football at the weekend. I played for the first time in years on Monday night and was just as shit as I remembered I was. Oh well, bettingwise: Here is how I got on last weekend:

Middlesbrough v Sheffield Wednesday
3pts: BORO TO WIN – 15/16 +5.81

Southampton v Swansea
2pts: OVER 2.5 GOALS – 7/10 -2.00
1pts: OVER 3.5 GOALS – 2/1 -1.00

Peterborough v Crystal Palace
2.2pts: PALACE TO WIN (DRAW NO BET) – 8/11 +3.80
0.8pts: PALACE TO WIN – 7/5 +1.92
0.5pts: PALACE TO WIN HT/FT – 3/1 -0.50

Barnsley v Huddersfield
0.5pts: HUDDERSFIELD HT/FT – 19/5 +2.40

Chelsea v Liverpool
2pts: CHELSEA TO WIN – 20/21 -2.00

Bristol City v Charlton
1pt: CHARLTON TO WIN – 19/10 +2.90
2.5pts: OVER 2.5 GOALS – 3/4 -2.50

0.25pts: CHARLTON, PALACE, BORO, CHELSEA – 27.84/1 -0.25

Draw Treble:
0.25pts: ARSENAL, STOKE, READING DRAWS – 53/1 -0.25

13 bets, Stake 19.00, Returns 21.43

Weekend Profit/Loss: +2.43 (+12.5%)

Total Profit/Loss (from starting kitty of 11.25): 33.54 (+22.29/+198%)

I was close to some big winners this weekend. One goal away from both my accumulator and my treble. Had Chelsea either a) put Liverpool to bed like they should have done, or b) defended correctly I would have had my best week so far by a distance. Likewise, if QPR had taken one of their chances at Stoke and nicked a draw. Still, profit is better than loss and that’s five profitable diaries in a row now. Sweet like chocolate. Here are my picks for the weekend’s football:

Saturday 17th

Arsenal  v Tottenham

Naughty naughty it’s the north London derby. After starting the season defending correctly and with a bit of shape, Arsenal’s defence has reverted to type and completely fucked it off. Since letting in 5 at Reading , United had more chances than their 2 goals suggest, as did Schalke in the Champions League and Michael Jackson’s special boys scored 3 at the Emirates last weekend. Normal service is resumed: Arsenal can’t defend. Only QPR and Sunderland have failed to score at Arsenal this season. Wankers. Tottenham are no tightarses either – they haven’t kept a clean sheet in 7 games and only once so far in the league this season. The last six North London wankoffs have all had more than 2.5 goals (and no clean sheets) but I’m put off buying +2.5 goals in this one by Both Teams To Score being almost the same price. Tottenham are yet to concede a goal in the first half of any of their away games this season and with this in mind and the fact that Wenger just might have something up his long coat for half-time, I’m having small stakes on a game of two halves. Arsenal’s marking didn’t look too good to me last weekend and in what is normally a pretty dirty game with plenty of free-kicks, Spurs showed last weekend against Man City they have special delivery from dead balls (Huddlestone and Bale) and 16/1 is a huge price on Steven Caulker (2 goals this week, one for Spurs, one for England) to score anytime.

3pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 8/15 with Coral

0.5pts: CAULKER TO SCORE ANYTIME – 16/1 with bWin

0.25pts: TOTTENHAM HT/ARSENAL FT – 25/1 general

Liverpool v Wigan

Calm down, calm down: All 5 of Wigan’s away games this season have been 0-0 at half time. Relax.  In Liverpool’s 6 games at Anfield they have only scored 2 and conceded 2 by the break. Chill. I expect this badboy to do a Vorderman and come to life big-time after the menopause. I like Wigan but they are too unpredictable to rely on for a result. They are either excellent or dogshit (only 2 darws in the league since March). However, at odds of 7/1 I will happily back them to have a good day. Liverpool have only beaten Reading (1-0) at home this season and have only scored more than 1 at Anfield once in 9 games. Forget Robbie Fowler – with the above in mind I’m happy to speculate on Wigan going to Liverpool and coming back with a positive result just like Mark Fowler.

1.5pts: SECOND HALF TO BE HIGHEST SCORING  – 11/10 with bWin

0.5pts: WIGAN TO WIN – 7/1 with Coral

0.25pts: DRAW HT/ WIGAN FT – 17/1 with 188bet

0.25pts: HALF-TIME SCORE: 0-0 – 5/2 with Stan James

Norwich v Man United

United are starting to look good now. Outscoring the shit out of teams and winning every game 3-2. However, Norwich have sorted out their own back doors and are strong at home. Before I realised they are still shit I thought Arsenal would go here and get a result. They lost 0-1 and I lost money. Norwich have kicked on since then and are unbeaten in 5 (including 3 clean sheets and home wins against Spurs and Stoke as well as Arsenal). That said, United are a different proposition and they will carry on scoring. One eventuality I like the sound of but try as I might, just cannot justify with any statistics is United winning this without conceding. I’m far from impressed with United’s defending so far this season. They have only kept 3 clean sheets in 18 games this season but I fancy they can keep one here. Norwich have only scored 5 goals in 5 home games themselves and surely even their boss, the Mayor off Only Fools & Horses isn’t foolish enough to throw too many men forward against a team as dangerous going forward as United.

1pt: UNITED TO WIN “TO NIL” – 19/10 with Coral

Reading v Everton

Smoke this: Reading have drawn 5 of their last 6 (three draws in a row at home) and Everton have drawn 4 of their last 5 (and their last 3 away). As impressed as I am with Everton so far this season you cannot ignore those statistics especially at odds of 14/5 for another draw. Everton haven’t kept a clean sheet in 7 games and Reading only kept their first clean sheet of the season last Saturday against Norwich. Everton create chances left, right and centre and are averaging more shots both on and off target than anyone in the Premiership. Against a defence who concede regularly (10 games, 18 conceded) I’m also backing the hairy puffcake (6 goals in 10 games this season including 3 in his last 2) to get all up in Reading’s grill at some point during the 90 minutes.

0.5pts: DRAW – 14/5 with Bet VIctor

1pt: FELLAINI TO SCORE ANYTIME – 15/8 with Bet365

2pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 4/6 with Betfred

Bristol City v Blackpool

Bristol City have lost 8 in a row and haven’t scored for 3 games. Blackpool have only won 3 of 8 away games in the league this season so I’m wary of betting any significant stake on them winning at skinny odds but considering they started the season able to defend (so can) and won their last away game keeping a clean sheet at Wednesday (who do score goals) I’m happy to take almost 4/1 on them doing so again here against the worst team about.

0.5pts: BLACKPOOL TO WIN “TO NIL” – 19/5 with Coral

Crystal Palace v Derby

Another form team from the South London vicinity are smelly old Crystal Palace. They left it late last weekend at Peterborough but got the win and I think they will do at home against Derby. Palace are still unbeaten since August, have the world’s third best player Wilfried Zaha playing for them and can beat a Derby side who have lost their last two away. Derby have only won 2 in 10 games and bump into a Palace side top of the league, bouncing, who won their last home game 5-0 (won 5 out of 8 at home) and with a new crazy manager. Home win all day long in a shit wooden ground full of people with Jacamo clobber, strange accents and gelled hair.

3pts: PALACE TO WIN – 22/23 with 188bet

1pt: PALACE TO WIN (-1) – 11/4 with Paddy Power

Sunday 18th

Millwall v Leeds

No-one likes them, they don’t care: Millwall are flying. Having scored 15 goals in 6 games and unbeaten in 9 the team brought to you by GIORGIO menswear face a Leeds side who have taken 3 points from 6 games, lost two on the spin and got hammered 1-6 at home last Saturday. Only 3 points separate these two sides but Millwall are third in the form table and Leeds are second from bottom. I will be amazed if the Lions don’t get 3 points at home on Sunday against a Leeds team who got their shoes, coat and hat taken against the same Watford team Millwall drew 0-0 with days earlier. Straight up old fashioned home win for me.

3pts: MILLWALL TO WIN – Evens with BlueSq

0.25pts: PALACE, MILLWALL, BOURNEMOUTH, ARSENAL – 11.62/1 with BlueSq

Draw treble:
0.25pts: WEST BROM, READING, FULHAM – 52.15/1 with StanJames

Good luck everybody betting on this weekend’s football. I hope nobody lost any serious money on the international friendlies in midweek. If you did, you really should know better.

Regulators. Mount up. Let’s make some money.

Whack me up on twitter @drtwerp I will talk bollocks with you and send you saucy pictures of me if you want. Not really pervert Christ what do you think this is – the BBC?

Good luck men except if you are in the Taliban.


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