Diary of a Punter: This Weekend’s Best Betting Tips

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Hello men, @Drtwerp here. I won’t lie to you, I respect you too much: After my worst results of the season last weekend (sorry Twerps) it was all down to me to check my horse for lumps in midweek.  

And boy did I fucking check them. Midweek returns were massive. In one spazmo week I suffered my biggest losses (-71%) and my biggest profits (+82%). Overall profit for the season (over 12 weeks, as this Diary was born in mid-September) now stands at +329%. Personally I’ve turned 11p into 48p but I’m sure your bollocks are bigger than mine. With only one third of the season already dressed, I am in position to assault the bookies violently (I’ll be wrapping up this Diary before the final weeks of the season for the same reason I left the opening weeks).  I’m sure you agree, with the banking sector failing Regulators like us – you do not see these kind of returns from your traditional investment strategies.

She calls it a gambling problem. I call it a gambling solution. Get on these returns from midweek:

Charlton v Peterborough – 2.5pts: CHARLTON TO WIN – 4/5 +4.50
0.5pts: HT DRAW, FT CHARLTON – 4/1 +2.50

Wolves v Millwall – 0.75pts: MILLWALL TO WIN “TO NIL” – 11/2 +4.88
3pts: MILLWALL TO WIN (DRAW NO BET) – 11/10 +6.30
0.25pts: HT WOLVES/ FT MILLWALL – 33/1 -0.25

Barnsley v Burnley – 2pts: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 11/10 +4.20

Sheffield Wednesday v Watford  – 2pts: WATFORD TO WIN (DRAW NO BET) – 6/5 +4.40

Everton v Arsenal – 4pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 4/7 +6.29

Stoke v Newcastle – 3pts: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 8/11 -3.00
 0.25pts: NO GOALSCORER – 9/1 -0.25

0.5pts: Villa, Southampton, Stoke, Charlton – 14.48/1 -0.50

Draw treble:
0.25pts: Tottenham, Everton, Swansea – 41.88/1 -0.25

13 bets, Stake 20.00, Returns 36.32

Midweek Profit/loss: +16.32 (+82%)
Total Kitty (starting kitty of 11.25): 48.33 (+37.08) (+329% profit)

Once again, I was let down on my accumulator by only one result (always the way – I am not the world’s biggest fan of accumulative betting) but I have no complaints. Tuesday night was fantastic and going big on the Everton game paid off on Wednesday. Following the weekend from hell all I wanted was a profit, managing to win back what I lost at the weekend and more within three days was beautiful. Here is my season so far:

There is no rest for the wicked so let's Mount Up once again and Regulate the fuck out of the weekend’s fixtures. Getting on these the earlier the better is where the money is. For example, backing Watford on Monday morning I got 6/5 on a Draw-No-Bet. By Tuesday afternoon they were 6/5 to win. Sweet like chocolate. I feel confident again so here are my bets for the weekend:

Saturday 1st October

Millwall v Charlton

MMMIIIIIILLLLLLLL .I used to go to school with Kenny Jackett’s son Blanket. He was fantastic dancer, head girl and queen of the cheerleading squad. Charlton go to Millwall very excited, it is right by TWO MAIN TRAIN LINES heading in and out of London Bridge. After all the excitement of that they quickly have to watch the match before they can get back on the trains. Having won money backing both these sides in midweek I kept my beady eye on them. The last two times these have met (in League One a couple of seasons ago) Millwall scored 4 times. However, I’m happy to suggest not this time.

Derby games always have the chance of going spastic but stats are my friend: Charlton have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 and are on a great run going into this (unbeaten in 5 and unbeaten in 6 away from home – conceding just 3 in those 6). Millwall are flying too – massively – unbeaten in 12 and have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 7. Both teams games so far this season average more than 2.5 goals (as do the majority of games in the Championship) but not recently, 4/5 of Millwall’s and 8/10 of Charlton’s most recent games seeing less than 2.5. I’d rather pick my mum’s nose than pick a winner in this one. Sell goals.

2pts: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 12/11 with 188bet

Watford v Barnsley

Little Zola’s team of hobbits are fucking hot. They honked Wednesday (I’ll come to them later) 1-4 on Tuesday and I liked it. Watty have taken 14 points from a possible 18, banging in 16 goals in those 6 games. Sexy. Barnsley have taken only 2 points from their last 6 games and have lost their last 5 away scoring only 2 goals. Not sexy. With all that said and done I like the look of Watford on the handicap here. They don’t defend well enough to warrant a “To Nil” bet but I’m happy to give Barnsley a goal head start.

3pts: WATFORD TO WIN – 4/5 with Bet Victor

1pt: WATFORD TO WIN (-1) – 11/5 with Paddy Power

Sunday 2nd December

Cardiff v Sheffield Wednesday

Homophobes look away now: Cardiff have won 9/9 at home in their lucky red kit. Mugs. And Wednesday are shit (last 17: LLLLLLDLDLWWLLLLL). The two wins came against Ipswich (21st) and Peterborough (24th). Since then, their best player Ross Barkley fucked off back to Everton and they got hammered again on Tuesday by Watford. Like the Watford v Barnsley game I’m happy to make profit picking a winner but my supercomputer tells me Cardiff have been winning 6 of their 9 home wins by HT. Wednesday have lost 6 of their 9 away games and were losing 7 of those by HT. Take it home brother.

3pts: CARDIFF TO WIN – 4/6 with Bet365

1pt: CARDIFF HT/FT – 6/4 with BlueSqure

Sorry Twerps but for some unknown reason my supercomputer, particularly www.soccerway.com has gone mental. Therefore I am unable to provide you with any meaningful stats to back up the following Premiership bets. I’m putting these up regardless as I want everybody to get the best possible prices on the Watford and Cardiff games which I expect to be eaten up pretty quickly. Luckily I still have www.oddschecker.com here we go:

Norwich v Sunderland

Sunderland average less shots on target per game than anyone. Norwich, since the Liverpool bumming have tightened right up, plenty of clean sheets at home.

2pts: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 8/11 with Stan James

West Ham v Chelsea

Chelsea’s fifth game in fourteen days. Gone off the boil away and haven’t scored in 3 games. West Ham have only lost once at home and will target a Rafa Benitez side who are a bunch of cunts and probably cant be arsed.

1pt: WEST HAM TO WIN (DRAW NO BET) – 9/4 with Ladbrokes

QPR v Aston Villa

Villa have scored 4 goals in the first half of their 14 games. QPR have scored 5 in the first half of their 14. Ok, Harry’s first game at home and all that but Villa look solid at the moment and even if the first half isn’t a virgin, the second half of a third game in a week for both these sides could produce shitloads.

2pts: SECOND HALF HIGHEST SCORING – 15/13 with bWin

Cardiff vs Sheff Wed

4pts: Cardiff v Wednesday +2.5 goals. 4/6 with Betfred


0.5pts: Middlesbrough(fri), Watford, Man United, Cardiff – 10.36/1 with Bet Victor

Draw treble:

0.25pts: Norwich, West Ham, Forest – 33.39/1 with Bet Victor

Anytime Goalscorer Treble:

0.25pts: Michu, Nolan, Suarez – 28.16/1 with Blue Square

Enjoy the football this weekend men. Good luck everybody and remember: Be yourself, that’s what’s really cool.

Twerp me @drtwerp on twitter.


Bet on any of Twerps tips with a free £50 bet from Betway this weekend. Open a new Betway account below:

1. Click this link to Betway 

2. Open a new account 

3. Place a £50 bet

4. If you lose, get the £50 refunded


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