Two absolute giants of European football face each other as AC Milan host Barcelona in a game that will probably not be as one sided as the bookies suggest.
Barcelona are the massive favourites at a best price of 4/7 with Paddy Power, whereas the draw can be backed at 41/12 with Pinnacle. AC Milan, playing at HOME, in their OWN stadium, in front of their OWN fans, in MILAN, (that’s in Italy, not Spain…) are an absolutely ridiculously sky high 6/1 with Bet365. Madness.
Open a new Bet365 account for this match and get a free bet equal to your first deposit i.e deposit £50 get a free £50 bet – claim your free bet here.
At what point do you stop looking at whom you think will win in a particular market, and start looking at the value of a particular outcome instead? I ask this because I was shocked to find that Barcelona are a best price of 1/7 to qualify from the two legs. A BEST price. They’re 10/1 ON with some bookmakers. Now if you asked me to put my last £50 on one of these teams to qualify from the last 16 it would be Barcelona. But the bookmakers are essentially offering odds of 10/1 for AC Milan to qualify from this tie. AC Milan, not Dynamo Twobobovic from deepest darkest Hungary. This offers massive value if nothing else, and those with trading inclinations may look to lay Barcelona to qualify and then re-evaluate their position after this game for a profit.
Both of these teams go into the game in very good form. AC Milan have won four and drawn two of their last six games, and although they will be missing Balotelli in this game, they will be encouraged by the fact Barcelona have not kept a clean sheet in nine games, and AC Milan have scored at least two goals in each of their last SIX games. For that reason, both teams to score at 5/6 looks massively overpriced to me, and is definitely worth taking.
For all my all chat earlier about how underpriced Barcelona were, and how massively overpriced AC Milan are (seriously, 6/1 at home is madness…) I don’t actually think that Milan will win here – I reckon it’ll be a high scoring draw – and seeing I’ve been banging on about strange odds, it’s worth mentioning that Bet Victor have the 2-2 draw at 21/1 – a full five points better than any other bookmaker. That’s definitely worth a couple of quid of anyone’s money.
In terms of who’s going to score the goals, apart from Messi, obviously, i like the look of Pedro scoring anytime @ 15/8 with Stan James. Pedro is often overlooked when facing the likes of Messi, Xavi and Inesta, but Pedro scores plenty of goals, and important ones at that.
As a final thought, AC Milan will pick up the most bookings on Wednesday, but the odds are so short there’s little point in backing it to happen. If you can find a market on Philippe Mexes to get booked, grab it with both hands. He’s gets booked every other game, and when you’ve got Catalonia’s finest running at you for 90 minutes, he’s going to have to take one for the team at some point…
Short odds – Both Teams to Score @ 5/6 (Bet Victor)
Medium Odds – Pedro to score anytime @ 15/8 (Stan James)
Long Odds – Draw @ 41/12 (Pinnacle)
Hail Mary Odds – correct Score 2-2 @ 21/1 (Bet Victor)
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