The second leg of the Champions League sees AC Milan, protecting a 2 goal lead, travel to the Nou Camp to play an under pressure Barcelona side.
Taking this match in isolation, Barcelona are the favourites at a best price of 1/3 with Betfred, whereas AC Milan can be backed at a stratospheric 47/5 with Pinnacle (that’s nearly 19/2 for those without a calculator.) honours even is available at 21/4, again with Pinnacle.
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It’s become cool to wail on Barcelona, all the twitter football hipsters are proclaiming the death of Barcelona, Tika-Taka, and that Messi has been ‘found out’ (subtitle: he failed to score in a couple of games). I think whilst it’s safe to say that the demise of the Barcelona empire is somewhat premature, there is something rotten in the State of Denmark for them at the moment. Three defeats in their last five games, and a solitary clean sheet against bottom of the table Deportivo in their last 14 games is in stark contrast to their early season form. Ominously, Milan have found their stride following an awful first half of the season saw them in 12th place. Since the turn of the year Milan have won eight and lost just one of their twelve games.
The problem that Barcelona have is that they will probably concede at some point, and this means that they will need four goals to progress, which I can’t see happening. This Milan side will happily shut up shop and grind out the result they require. I therefore recommend backing Milan to qualify @ 8/11 with Blue Square, and both teams to score @ 3/4 with Bet Victor.
With Barcelona being such overwhelming favourites for the match, if not the tie, you can get good odds on AC Milan players to score anytime – Pazzani’s absence means that their main attacking threat will be El Shaarawy, who can be backed at 7/2 to score anytime with Corals. If you fancy a headline story though, consider the ex Real-Madrid and completely forgotten about Robinho. He’s only got 2 goals all season, and features almost exclusively from the bench for Milan these days, but in Balotelli’s absence he may come on to stretch the play in the later stages. He’s 14/1 to get the last goal which would inevitably send the headline writers wild.
Milan to Qualify @ 8/11 (Blue Square)
Both Teams to score @ 3/4 (Bet Victor)
El Shaarawy to score anytime @ 7/2 (Coral)
Correct score 2-1 Barcelona @ 9/1 (Bet365)
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