The final round of group games in the Champions League sees Borussia Dortmund, already confirmed winners of Group D, play host to Man City, bottom and already out of the Champions League, but with a slim chance of making the Europa League.
Dortmund are the favourites at a best price of 11/10 with Stan James, whereas Man City are 5/2 with Boylesports. The draw is available at 41/14 with Pinnacle.
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The first problem we have with this game is that we don’t quite know what’s in Mancini’s head at the moment. To fail to win this game would mean that Man City would finish the group bottom, out of Europe entirely without a win in the tournament, which would no doubt go down pretty badly with the Man City Hierarchy. But, if they win, and Ajax don’t win, and they end up in the Europa league, Man City will have to spend the next four months touring the Belarusian outback playing random Eastern European teams on a Thursday night. Add to the equation that Man City have the small matter of a home game against Man Utd on the Sunday, and therefore not wanting to risk any players getting injured, and the likelihood that Dortmund will be heavily rotating players for this game means that picking the actual result of this game may prove impossible.
Dortmund go into this game on the back of a very decent away draw against runaway Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich. Dortmund have only lost once in their last sixteen games in all competitions, and are unbeaten in their last eleven. They are unbeaten in the Champions League this season, and as mentioned previously, they have won Group D, ahead of Real Madrid. Man City similarly have only lost once in their last sixteen games, and are unbeaten in nine games. They have however drawn a lot of their recent games – three of their last four have ended in draws, and they have drawn as many games as they have won this season.
If you’re going to force me to pick a result in this game, I’d go for match drawn. Dortmund’s kid’s vs Man City who are rubbish away from home but probably at nearly full strength points to a scoring draw, but as I highlighted earlier, backing the match result in this game could be folly, so instead it may be better looking at Stats. Firstly, there has only been a single clean sheet in the whole of Group D so far – and that was the very first game. Dortmund have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last seven games. Both teams to score at 4/7 with Bet365 looks like an absolute banker, and make sure you also include it any goals galore accumulator that you do. An interesting stat is that Dortmund have either scored or conceded a late goal in six of their last seven Champions League games. You can get just under evens that the last goal is scored after the 75th minute (10/11 with Paddy Power) and I reckon that it will be a fairly safe bet again on Tuesday night.
In terms of the players market, I’d suggest that you shy away from backing any Dortmund players until the lineup is revealed, as I can see the usual suspects (Lewandowski, Reus, Götze etc.) being rested for the likes of Perisic and Leitner. For Man City, Balotelli is back in favour at Man City after missing most of November through injury/sulking, and will probably get a run out from the bench. Back him to score last at 10/1, and anytime at 7/2 with William Hill.
Dortmund vs Man City Best Bets
Balotelli to score last @ 10/1 (William Hill)
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