Derby vs Leeds predictions and betting tips for this first leg of this Championship play-off semi-final on Saturday 11th May. Derby’s victory over West Brom ensured them a place in the top six, and they head into the Championship play-offs for an eighth time! Leeds stand in the way of the Rams getting to Wembley, again.
The best odds for Derby County to beat Leeds in the first leg of this play-off are 9/4 at Betfred, you will get odds of 21/10 for the game to end a draw at Pride Park, or Leeds to win is priced at 31/10.
A bet on both teams to score comes in at odds of 10/11 and it’s the same price for no on that market.
Derby beat Fulham in the first leg of last season’s play-offs.
The Rams have lost just one game since the beginning of March.
Leeds have lost three of their last four matches in the Championship.
Kick Off Time: 17:30pm.
Date: Saturday 11th May 2019.
Venue: Pride Park.
Leeds should be applauded for their achievements this season, and Marcelo Bielsa has done a superb job with his injury-hit squad. However, in the final third of the season, they have been constantly under-priced by the bookmakers. They have been too short in the betting on many occasions, and for some reason, they are favourites here.
True, Leeds finished nine points ahead of today’s opponents, but they don’t arrive into the play-offs in any sort of form. Derby needed a last day victory over West Brom to ensure their place here, but their home form has been exceptionally strong throughout the campaign. Last season, they took a slender 1-0 lead to Craven Cottage, and fans will be hoping that their side go for broke here, and don’t just settle for a single goal.
The Whites have taken just 13 points from the last 30 available, whilst the Rams have bagged 19 during that time.
Leeds blew Derby away during their first away fixture of the campaign, but both sides have changed remarkably since. Frank Lampard has clearly matured as a manager, whilst Leed’s XI will be very different to the one that left Pride Park with three points. Only three sides have won here since that day, and I can’t see a repeat of that result.
Derby have very talented players with Tom Lawrence, Harry Wilson and Mason Mount all shining this season, whilst Jayden Bogle has been excellent down the flanks. Both sides have a few injuries here, but Craig Bryson is the only loss for the hosts.
Leeds looked a side bereft of confidence at the back against Ipswich, and it’s hard to be convinced by them as favourites here.
Derby Draw No Bet looks like a sensible bet in this game, and it’s the first of our EFL betting tips for Saturday teatime. They are 11/10 with William Hill, and their £30 of free bets can be used on this fixture.
Derby have a number of players who could find the back of the net in this game, but they’ve often relied on the brilliance of Harry Wilson this season. The Liverpool loanee’s ice-cool penalty against QPR was a crucial moment in the Ram’s quest for the play-offs this season, and he will be called upon again if the hosts are awarded a spot-kick.
The 22-year old has 17 goals this season, and he has also found the net in each of the club’s last two home matches. He is a match-winner who is destined for bigger things, and I think he looks like a decent bet in this contest.
With none of Derby’s strikers firing on a regular basis, it is probably best to back Harry Wilson here. He is also their designated free-kick taker, and has the tendency to pop up with crucial strikes.
Harry Wilson to Score Anytime is the second of our Championship betting tips, and he is 7/2 with Betfair to find the net in this one. New customers can get £100 of free bets when they sign up for an account.
Read More: See all of our predictions for the final weekend of the Premier League season.
The Championship play-offs were extremely tight last season, with all of the games finishing with fewer than three goals. Derby won 1-0 vs Fulham at this stage last season, and they haven’t conceded many goals in recent weeks at home.
Derby have conceded 1-0-0-1-0-1 in their last six home matches, and only Villa and Leeds have netted more than a single goal here this campaign.
The Whites are certainly not firing on all cylinders, and Kemar Roofe is currently struggling for confidence. He spurned a penalty last week, and they can’t call upon Patrick Bamford who remains suspended for this first semi-final.
Under 2.5 Goals is a short price here, but at 8/13, it’s worth backing. It could be ideal for a double. 888Sport have the best price available on this bet, and they have a £30 free bet waiting for all new customers.
Leeds Win – 11/8
Draw – 11/5
Derby Win -2/1
Odds from William Hill.