Sevilla vs Espanyol Betting Tips and Prediction – Bet on the Visitors to Avoid Defeat

La Liga shows little sign of being any more than a two horse between Real Madrid and Barcelona with the two dominant forces of Spanish football well clear of the chasing pack again.

Sevilla are in contention with Atletico Madrid and Getafe for the third place ‘best of the rest’ spot with Los Nervionenses hosting Espanyol at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán in the early Sunday clash.

 

Sevilla vs Espanyol Preview

Sevilla have struggled since their return from the mid-season winter break, winning only one of their five league games since. Their last outing was a trip to Celta Vigo where they beaten by two goals to one and could have little complaints, according to the data, despite Celta battling at the wrong of the division. Vigo edged the xG 1.61 to 1.40 but showed tremendous character to come from 0-1 down to win the game, scoring twice in the final 12 minutes. The game highlighted deficiencies within Sevilla’s defence who conceded the two goals to a side that have only netted 19 times this season, the third worst record in the division.

Julen Lopetegui’s side seem to have amassed some form for struggling against strugglers since the return to league action, post-Christmas. They were comfortably beaten 3-1 by Mirandes in the Copa del Rey, a competition which they would have been favourites for after Real Madrid and Barcelona were knocked out at the quarter-final stage. Mirandes are mid-table in the second tier of Spanish football so it isn’t as if they were a club full of momentum and on the up when they completed the cup shock.

Sevilla only just managed to scrape a draw against Alaves, another side battling at the wrong end of the table. Whilst they did accumulate 2.02 expected goals, 0.78 of this came from the penalty which rescued them a point in the closing stages of the game, suggesting that they are finding it difficult to create and put away chances against sides with the intention of being hard to beat.

After a poor start to the season, Espanyol brought in former Barcelona player Abelardo Fernández in a bid to rescue their season and he has made an impressive start to life at the RCDE Stadium, winning his first home fixture last weekend albeit against poor travellers Mallorca. His first game in charge was against Barcelona where Espanyol recorded a draw, scoring late on to snatch a point. Whilst they didn’t generate much in the way of xG to warrant scoring two goals (0.84 to Barcelona’s 2.50), they defended well for large parts of the game and dominated the closing stages before scoring the equaliser. The late domination was probably down to the sending of Frenkie De Jong but they had defended well enough to deserve a point across the 90 minute period.

Their two away games under Fernandez have been against Villarreal and Granada, picking up three points but deserving much more. In the game against Villarreal, they were 2-0 up before a red card leading to a penalty handed Villarreal a route back into the game. Again, Espanyol defended well though and saw the game out 2-1. Without the penalty, Villarreal created an xG of 1.96 to Espanyol’s 2.30. A majority of Villarreal’s chances came after the red card when Espanyol were content to sit and protect the lead, conceding the possession to Villarreal in the last quarter of the match. Their 2-1 defeat to Granada (their only under Abelardo Fernández) was undeserved as they created an xG of 3.17 to Granada’s 1.21, suggesting that they deserved a victory, let alone a draw, based on the chances that they created.

They won their first home match of the season last time out, a deserved victory over Mallorca. They created 1.89 expected goals to 0.76 from their opponents suggesting that it was a strong defensive display but potentially wasteful in attack, missing good chances to make the lead more comfortable. However, it is still impressive that they can marry performances and results at a crucial time in the season when it would be easier to focus on the results, rather than the process.

 

Match Prediction

On paper, when considering the league positions of both sides (5^th v 20^th), it appears as if it would be a routine win for Sevilla. However, they have regressed since the turn of the year, performing poorly against sides who are in the lower echelons of the division whereas Espanyol have picked up dramatically, putting together some consistent results against the divisions’ better sides. I fancy La Liga’s bottom club to pick up another valuable point, at least, this weekend.

 

Betting Tip

Espanyol to win or draw – 31/20 with Unibet.

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