Last Updated on 28/02/2026 by Andy Clark
Champion Day is the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival and sets the tone for the week.
Seven races span Tuesday, 10th March 2026, headlined by the Grade 1 Champion Hurdle and the Grade 1 Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Below are the key historical trends for every race on Day 1 to help you build your shortlists.
Read More: Cheltenham Day 2 Trends | Cheltenham Day 3 Trends | Cheltenham Day 4 Trends
Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Kopek Des Bordes (4/6F) – Willie Mullins / Paul Townend
Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6. Older novices have an almost non-existent record here.
Price: Only 5 of the last 12 winners started as favourite or joint-favourite, but 11 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting. The market narrows the field reliably even if the favourite doesn’t always land.
Trainer: 8 of the last 12 winners were trained in Ireland. Willie Mullins alone has trained 7 of the last 12 winners — his runners are the default starting point.
Last Run: 10 of the last 12 winners won their final prep race, and 10 of the last 12 ran within the last 66 days. Horses without a recent win or a recent run are firmly against the trends.
Key Trials: The Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown is the standout prep — 5 of the last 12 winners ran there last time out (4 won, 1 placed). The Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown is the best UK trial, producing 2 of the last 12 winners, both of whom won it.
Previous Course Form: Cheltenham experience is not required. Only 3 of the last 12 winners had previously run at the course and just 1 had won there. A Festival debutant can absolutely win the Supreme.
Previous Distance Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 15–17 furlongs, and all 12 winners had at least 2 wins over the trip. Proven form at the Supreme’s distance is effectively a prerequisite.
Previous Hurdle Form: Every winner had run over hurdles at least twice. 9 of the last 12 had 3 or more hurdle runs, and 11 of the last 12 had at least 2 hurdle wins.
Rating: 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 147 or higher.
Graded Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous win at Grade 1, 2 or 3 level.
Season Form: Every winner (12/12) had run at least twice in the current season, and 11 of the last 12 had won at least twice that season. Horses with only one run before Cheltenham — however impressive — have a very poor record.
❌Horse to Avoid: Horses aged 7 or older — only one winner in the last 12 years has come from outside the 5–6 age bracket. Also swerve any horse who has not won a graded race, as 11 of the last 12 winners had at least one graded victory to their name.
Arkle Novices’ Chase – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Jango Baie (5/1) – Nicky Henderson / Nico de Boinville
Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7. This is a young horse’s race — eight-year-olds and older rarely feature.
Price: The market is a reliable guide. 8 of the last 12 winners started as the outright favourite, and 10 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting.
Trainer: Irish-trained runners hold an edge with 7 of the last 12 winners, but UK trainers are more competitive here than in the Supreme, accounting for 5 of the last 12.
Last Run: 10 of the last 12 winners won their most recent race, and 10 of the last 12 ran within the last 51 days.
Key Trial: The Irish Arkle Novice Chase at Leopardstown is the definitive prep — 4 of the last 12 winners ran there last time out, and all 4 won it.
Previous Course Form: Cheltenham experience matters here unlike in the Supreme. 10 of the last 12 winners had previously run at the course, and 5 of the last 12 had won at Cheltenham before.
Previous Distance Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 15–17 furlongs, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 2 wins over the trip.
Previous Hurdle Form: Every winner had run over hurdles at least 4 times, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 2 hurdle wins.
Previous Chase Form: Chase experience is essential. 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous chase runs, 9 of the last 12 had at least 3, and every winner had at least 1 previous chase win. 9 of the last 12 had at least 2 chase wins.
Rating: 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 153 or higher.
Graded Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous win at Grade 1 or Grade 2 level.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had run at least 3 times that season, every winner had at least 1 win that season, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 2 wins.
❌Horse to Avoid: Any horse who has not won at least one chase before Cheltenham — every single winner had at least 1 previous chase win. Also, be wary of horses rated below 153, which eliminates the bottom 3 of the last 12 winners.
The McCoys Contractors Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Puturhandstogether – Joseph O’Brien / Mark Walsh
Age: This race is exclusively for four-year-olds.
Price: One of the most open races of the entire Festival. Only 1 of the last 12 winners started as favourite or joint-favourite, just 4 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting, and 7 of the last 12 were priced at 10/1 or bigger. Short prices are genuinely dangerous here.
Weight: 9 of the last 12 winners carried 11st 6lb or less. Well-handicapped horses towards the bottom of the weights have a clear edge.
Trainer: 8 of the last 12 winners were trained in Ireland, with just 4 from UK yards.
Last Run: Only 4 of the last 12 winners won their last race — fitting the open handicap nature of the contest. However, 9 of the last 12 ran within the last 53 days, so recent fitness still matters.
Key Trial: The Rated Novice Hurdle at Naas has produced 4 of the last 12 winners, with 3 of those winning it.
Previous Distance Form: Every winner had at least 2 previous runs over 15–17 furlongs (12/12), and 11 of the last 12 had at least 3. 9 of the last 12 had at least 1 win over the distance.
Previous Hurdle Form: Every winner had at least 3 previous hurdle runs, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 1 hurdle win.
Rating: 9 of the last 12 winners were rated between 122 and 134. Horses rated above or below that band face a stiff task.
Season Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had run at least 3 times that season, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 1 win.
❌Horse to Avoid: The favourite — only 1 of the last 12 favourites has won this race. Also avoid any horse carrying significantly over 11st 6lb, as 9 of the last 12 winners were below that mark.
The Trustmarque Ultima Handicap Chase – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Myretown (13/2) – Lucinda Russell / Patrick Wedge
Age: 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9. Young novice-types and older veterans both struggle.
Price: Another open handicap — only 3 of the last 12 winners started as favourite or joint-favourite, though 8 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting.
Weight: 8 of the last 12 winners carried between 10st 10lb and 11st 8lb.
Trainer: This race is a British fortress. All 12 of the last 12 winners were trained in the UK. Irish-trained runners have a remarkable overall record at the Festival but have been completely shut out of the Ultima in recent years.
Last Run: Only 4 of the last 12 winners won their last race, and 10 of the last 12 had their previous run within the last 59 days.
Previous Course Form: Cheltenham experience is highly important. 11 of the last 12 winners had previously run at the course, 7 of the last 12 had at least 2 previous runs at Cheltenham, and 7 of the last 12 had won there before.
Previous Distance Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 23–25 furlongs (2m7f–3m1f), every winner had at least 1 win over that trip, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 2 wins. This is not a race for horses untested at the trip.
Previous Hurdle Form: Every winner had run over hurdles at least 3 times and every winner had won over hurdles at least once.
Previous Chase Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs, and 11 of the last 12 had at least 1 previous chase win.
Rating: 10 of the last 12 winners were rated between 139 and 151.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had run at least 3 times that season, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 1 win.
❌Horse to Avoid: Irish-trained runners — the record is 0 from 12 in recent years. Also swerve horses without previous Cheltenham experience (11 of the last 12 winners had run here before) and anything aged 10 or older.
Unibet Champion Hurdle – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Golden Ace – Jeremy Scott / Lorcan Williams (Golden Ace inherited the race after State Man fell at the final hurdle with the race in his grasp — one of the most dramatic Champion Hurdles in recent memory)
Age: 11 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8. Four or five-year-olds and horses aged 9 or older both have very poor records.
Price: The Champion Hurdle is strongly market-related. 8 of the last 12 winners started as favourite or joint-favourite, and 9 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting. This is not a race to go hunting a big-priced winner.
Trainer: 7 of the last 12 winners were trained in Ireland versus 5 from UK yards.
Last Run: 11 of the last 12 winners won their most recent race — one of the strongest last-time-out trends at the entire Festival. Every winner (12/12) ran within the last 78 days.
Key Trials: The Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown has produced 4 of the last 12 winners (3 won it, none unplaced). The Christmas Hurdle at Kempton has produced 3 of the last 12 winners, all of whom won it.
Previous Course Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, and 8 of the last 12 had won there before. Cheltenham experience matters significantly.
Previous Distance Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over 15–17 furlongs, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 4 wins over the trip.
Previous Hurdle Form: Every winner had at least 5 previous hurdle runs, 9 of the last 12 had at least 7, every winner had at least 4 hurdle wins, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 5 wins over hurdles.
Rating: 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 161 or higher.
Grade 1 Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous Grade 1 win.
Season Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had run at least twice that season, every winner had at least 1 win, and 10 of the last 12 had won at least twice.
❌Horse to Avoid: Any horse who hasn’t won their last race — 11 of the last 12 winners obliged last time out, making beaten horses one of the weakest trends in the entire meeting. Also avoid horses without a Grade 1 win and anything rated below 155.
The Sun Racing Plate – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Jagwar – Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero / Harry Cobden
Age: 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 9.
Price: An open handicap. Only 4 of the last 12 winners started as favourite, and just 5 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting. Mid-market and bigger-priced horses have a strong record.
Weight: 10 of the last 12 winners carried between 10st 8lb and 11st 4lb.
Last Run: 7 of the last 12 winners won their most recent race, and 11 of the last 12 ran within the last 77 days.
Previous Course Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, and 7 of the last 12 had won at the course.
Previous Distance Form: Every winner had at least 3 previous runs over 19–21 furlongs (12/12), 10 of the last 12 had at least 4 runs over the trip, and 11 of the last 12 had at least 1 win over the distance.
Previous Hurdle Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles, and 11 of the last 12 had at least 1 win over hurdles.
Previous Chase Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs, and 9 of the last 12 had at least 2 previous chase wins.
Rating: 10 of the last 12 winners were rated between 139 and 145.
Season Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had run at least 3 times that season, and 11 of the last 12 had at least 1 win.
❌Horse to Avoid: Horses without previous Cheltenham experience — 9 of the last 12 winners had run here before. Also swerve anything rated above 145, which is outside the winning band in 10 of the last 12 renewals.
The National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup – Cheltenham Trends
🥇2025 Winner: Haiti Couleurs – Rebecca Curtis / Ben Jones
Age: 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8.
Price: The least market-dominated race on Day 1. Only 2 of the last 12 winners started as favourite or joint-favourite, though 7 of the last 12 came from the top 3 in the betting. Finding value from the top of the market is a realistic strategy here.
Last Run: Only 3 of the last 12 winners won their last race — the lowest last-time-out strike rate on the entire day. However, 9 of the last 12 ran within the last 52 days.
Previous Course Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had previously run at Cheltenham, but only 3 had won there. Simply having run at the course is a positive; winning there is not required.
Previous Distance Form: 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 3 miles or further, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 1 win over 3 miles. Proven stamina is essential for this 3m6f contest.
Previous Chase Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs, 10 of the last 12 had at least 4, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 1 previous chase win.
Rating: 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 139 or higher.
Season Form: 10 of the last 12 winners had run at least 3 times that season, and 10 of the last 12 had at least 1 win.
❌Horse to Avoid: Short-priced favourites — only 2 of the last 12 have won, making this a race where market leaders regularly get turned over. Also avoid any horse who hasn’t run at Cheltenham before (10 of the last 12 winners had), and horses without proven form over 3 miles.
Cheltenham Festival 2026
Looking for the best free bets to use across Champion Day? Our Cheltenham free bets hub rounds up every current sign-up offer from our affiliate partners, while if you’re focused on the opening race specifically, our Supreme Novices’ Hurdle free bets page covers the best offers to use on the curtain raiser. For tips and selections across the week, head to our Cheltenham Festival tips hub, where we’ll be posting day-by-day best bets throughout the meeting.
If you want expert pundit analysis to sit alongside these trends, Ruby Walsh and Tom Segal have both given their Cheltenham 2026 verdicts — check out Ruby Walsh’s Cheltenham tips and Tom Segal’s Cheltenham tips for their ante-post selections. For the best value accounts to open ahead of the Festival, Betfred’s Cheltenham offer and BetMGM’s Cheltenham offer are both worth a look — BetMGM sponsor two races on Champion Day alone.
Andy is the founder, owner and editor of thatsagoal.com, with over 20 years of experience in betting on sports. He has a keen eye for stats, particularly when looking at players to be carded, and these form a large part of the bet builder tips you see on the site. As well as creating daily football tips, Andy also keeps thatsagoal updated with all the best bookmaker promotions and offers for our readers. The Cheltenham Festival is one of the biggest weeks on the sporting calendar, and his expertise in betting promotions and marketing means you always get the best offers.