One of the NAPs of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival is Paisley Park and in our Stayers Hurdle tips, Ash looks into where the value is from the rest of the runners, including a potential bet in the without the favourite market.
It has been suggested by some that an era of dominance in the staying hurdle division, much alike to that of Big Bucks four consecutive wins in the then World Hurdle between 2009 and 2012, is on the horizon.
The horse touted to dominate is the Emma Lavelle trained Paisley Park. Unbeaten since his run in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham in 2018 it is almost impossible to oppose the defending champion and at best odds of 8/11 at the time of writing. He does not appeal as an ante-post bet. At least not as a single anyway – he is surely one for any across the week multiples.
The best bets then would seem to be an each-way or without the favourite option (on which if you back each way you are effectively giving yourself an extra place, just at reduced odds).
The market in behind the favourite is somewhat muddling as those towards the top of the betting include second favourite, Benie Des Dieux, who would appear to be going for the Mares Hurdle, City Island, who is returning from an unsuccessful stint over fences, RSA market leader Champ and Apple’s Jade who seems set for a swan song in the race before retiring.
There are some potentially interesting bets though.
One which may raise a few eyebrows is Penhill. He has taken several heavy beatings this season and has not really shown form which would inspire many, however, he has been ridden patiently every time and has rarely been asked for maximum effort. Willie Mullins has managed to get a couple more runs than usual into this fragile horse this season and there is every chance he has been wound up perfectly with a view to peaking on Thursday 12th March and landing us a Stayers Hurdle betting tip.
He is likely to run from off the pace and be produced with a late challenge. Providing he can get past expected front runners Summerville Boy and The Worlds End he could well run into a place. He is currently available at 16/1 which offers some value as an each-way alternative to the short-priced favourite (8/1 betting without the favourite with William Hill).
Another who could run a big race, providing his jumping holds up, is Emitom. After a too bad to be true reappearance at Cheltenham on New Years Day, he was shipped off to Henrietta Knight in an attempt to iron out the jumping mistakes which had cost him that day.
His first run since resulted in an eight-length win in the Unibet Rendlehsam Hurdle at Haydock. Backed into 7/4 favourite that day he duly obliged with a near-perfect round of jumping (barring the last) to score an easy victory. He boasts some classy form, including a three-length second to Champ in the Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle in April 2019. Providing his jumping holds up against superior rivals in this contest and on the undulations of Cheltenham he could well be one to spring a surprise for our Cheltenham tips. He can currently be backed at a best price of 12/1 after being cut from 50/1 following Haydock (6/1 without the favourite is available with William Hill).
For those seeking a bet at a wild price, Tobefair can be backed at 66/1. A high class handicapper with a good Cheltenham record (021134) he will be sure to run his race despite lacking the class of some of these. With this being his only entry at this stage he seems certain to turn up.
Read More: See more day 3 Cheltenham Festival betting tips for 2020.
Penhill (each way) – 16/1 with William Hill (8/1 betting without the favourite).
Emitom (each-way) – 12/1 with William Hill (6/1 without the favourite).
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