Diary of a Punter: 14 Weeks and +387% Profit – This Weeks Free Tips

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Oops! I did it again. I stared hell in the face and got the fu*k out of there. Four bets on the Manchester Derby and four winners: An 8/13, an Evens, a 2/1 and a 33/1 whopper. *shaves head, grabs umbrella*. Doctor. Leader. Legend.

My name is @DrTwerp and surgery is open. I’ve not been betting this week, following  7 days of betting hell I got my nuts out in a big way last weekend. Have a look at this set of results from last Saturday and cry.

Aston Villa v Stoke
1.5pts: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 8/11 +2.59

Arsenal v West Brom
1.5pts: WEST BROM TO WIN – 6/1 -1.50

Watford v Hull
2pts: WATFORD TO WIN – 7/5 -2.00
0.5pts: HT DRAW/FT WATFORD – 5/1 -1.00

Charlton v Brighton
2pts: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 9/11 -2.00
1pt: CHARLTON TO WIN “TO NIL” – 4/1 -1.00
0.5pts: HT DRAW/ FT CHARLTON – 23/4 -0.50

Ipswich v Millwall
1pt: MILLWALL TO WIN “TO NIL” – 4/1 -1.00
3pts: MILLWALL TO WIN – 13/8 -3.00 

Accumulator:
0.15pts: Watford, Millwall, West Brom, Man United – 148.65/1 -0.15

Draw Treble:
0.25pts: Swansea, West Ham, Forest – 41.77 -0.25

Horrendous. Some fucking tipster. I was too embarrassed to even risk encountering the dude on twitter who keeps calling me a skint cunt every time I lose a bet. Suicide note written, playlist saved, smoke machine ordered. I was hoping for a big East-End funeral with loads of wankers I don’t know lining the streets and clapping. Either way: Unless some miracle of Christ saved me on Sunday, I was in a whole world of trouble and the Surgery shutters were close to being slammed shut.

And this is why we gamble. Sweet like chocolate:

Man City v Man United
4pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 8/13 +6.46
3pts: TOTAL GOALS: ODD – Evens +6.00
2pts: OVER 3.5 GOALS – 2/1 +6.00
0.5pts: UNITED TO WIN 3-2 – 33/1 +17.00

Everton v Tottenham
6.5pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 8/11 +11.22

West Ham v Liverpool
2pts: WEST HAM TO WIN (DRAW NO BET) – 6/5 -2.00

17 Bets, Stake 31.40, Returns 49.27

Weekend Profit/Loss: +17.87 (+57%)
Total Profit/Loss (from starting kitty of 11.25): 54.73 (+387%)

Skint cunt? Up your bollocks. Like it? Stick a ring on it. As that Van Persie free-kick went in someone on twitter put “somewhere, @DrTwerp is going mental”. Sort of true, sort of not true. Obviously I was going mental mentally but I just glanced up and went “great free kick that”. Had I have gone crazy, she would have known about the hole I just climbed out of. Not cool. That’s MY hole.

After ignoring my own psycho form and going BIG last weekend (which ultimately paid off due to one incredible Sunday – I’m not forgetting about the late late Everton equalizer either) I’m lowering my stakes this weekend in search of the steady profit I used to enjoy. I won’t lie to you, I’ve shit myself this last couple of weeks and my confidence is low. Although my 11p starting stake in mid September is now 54p – a massive chunk of that clipped of Nasri’s leg and went back into my kitty via the post. Here is my season so far:

Ok Regulators. Here are my bets placed for this weekend’s football. Mount Up:

Saturday 15th December

Newcastle v Man City

Judging by some of those vests and elasticated trousers on Geordie Shore, Newcastle is hardly the style capital of anywhere but these two are well out of fashion. Why aye man? Man City have won one game in six and go into this one looking to bounce back from losing to United without their captain (this could work in their favour, Kompany hasn’t looked fantastic this season). Newcastle have only won one game in ten and badly miss Cabaye in midfield. Without him (and the Cisse they had last season) Newcastle aren’t the same team. However, Ben Arfa is back and Demba Ba is capable of extreme black magic too. Haway. Exactly: City have only let in one goal in 4 away games.  Four out of Man City’s last five games have seen less than 2.5 goals and with Newcastle’s creativity problems I’m happy to speculate this one will too. United went to Newcastle earlier in the season and came away with a 0-3 win. Newcastle never showed up that day and I expect City to have to work a little bit harder. In Man City’s seven away games in the league this season they have gone in at Half-Time drawing on six occasions. City love a late winner and have scored 30 goals this season, but only 8 of those before the break. With this in mind I have placed bets on the following:

0.2pts: HT NEWCASTLE FT MAN CITY – 25/1 general price

0.8pts: HT DRAW FT MAN CITY – 17/4 with Bet Victor

1.5pts: SECOND HALF HIGHEST SCORING – 11/10 with bWin

Norwich v Wigan

Hope Powell’s lads are flying. Unbeaten in nine (in the league) and won four on the spin (all by one goal) at home (clean sheets against Arsenal, Stoke and Man United – conceding just 1 goal against Sunderland). Norwich went to Swansea last weekend and out-Swansea’d them. Wigan’s menopause make them a tough side to bet on/against (and Norwich played in midweek) but when all is said and done Norwich have taken 19 points from a possible 27. Wigan only have 15 points from 16 games (scoring only 2 goals in their last 6 away games). I’m concerned that Norwich played 90 minutes on Wednesday and might suffer a hangover so it’s only small stakes on the home win for me, possibly with a clean sheet and/or after an hard-to-get first half (6/7 Wigan away games have been 0-0 at half-time). Strangle that.

0.5pts: HT DRAW FT NORWICH – 9/2 general price

0.5pts: NORWICH TO WIN “TO NIL” – 3/1 with Coral

Stoke v Everton

My ex-girlfriend was one fat motherfucker but boy did she rate herself. I believe the phrase the mean girls use is “magic mirror”. It was her confidence (and her Downs Syndrome) I was attracted to but ultimately it was what made me hate her. When we split up I had to get Jerry Springer to rip the side of my flat off and crane-lift the human fry-up back to North London.  As much as this game screams Under 2.5 goals, so did Charlton v Brighton last weekend (ended 2-2) the odds are too skinny for a chubby-chaser like me (8/13). The price of a draw here looks suitably curvy considering both sides have drawn exactly half of their 16 games this season. Stoke have lost only twice in eleven (and are unbeaten at home) and Everton have only lost twice in the league since March. Both tough to beat and both draw machines.  

1pt: DRAW – 23/10 with Betfred

Liverpool v Aston Villa

Both these sides after dodgy starts are putting it together so rather than pick my nose and eat it I’m going to let you in on a secret: Both these fuckers only play second half. There have only been 5 goals before HT in the last 8 Liverpool home games. Likewise there have only been 6 goals by HT in the last 8 Villa away games. With this in mind, I’m backing 0-0 at HT and Under 2.5 goals. Villa were leaky earlier in the season but have zipped up their pussy and have only conceded 2 in 5 games whilst Liverpool have only conceded once in their last five home games.

2pts: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 6/5 with BoyleSports

0.5pts: HALF-TIME SCORE 0-0 – 23/10 with BoyleSports

Blackpool v Blackburn

Black attack. Two teams I was betting on alot a couple of months ago meet on Saturday. Blackpool have drawn FIVE IN A ROW at home. They face a Blackburn side who have drawn 6/9 away. Points shared. 9/10 of the most recent Blackpool games have seen both teams score and so have 5/6 Blackburn games. Whilst both sides have plenty of quality going forward, it should be noted that Blackburn have only scored more than one goal twice in FIFTEEN games. With the million dollar men Jordan Rohypnol (18 games, 11 goals) and little Tommy Ince Jr (19 games, 13 goals – 7 goals in his last 8) involved , both teams have firepower.

1pt: DRAW – 5/2 with Bet365

2pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 4/6 with Stan James

Birmingham v Palace

Palace have lost once in eighteen games. That is a hell of a run. Birmingham have lost four of their last seven home games and have let in five in their last two at home. If backing Palace in the Drum&Bass market doesn’t appeal, you should be sent round Barrymore’s home via Boy George’s home like the homeowner you are.

3pts: PALACE TO WIN (DRAW NO BET) – 5/6 with Ladbrokes

Sunday 16th December

Tottenham v Swansea

Where do I start with this one? Fuckit – bullet points. You can’t run from the gun:

·         Spurs games average 3.38 goals per game

·         Swansea games average 2.94 goals per game

·         In 8 home games Spurs have conceded 10 goals

·         In 7 away games Swansea have scored 10 goals

·         Only 6 clubs have scored more away from home than Swansea

·         Only 6 clubs have scored more at home than Tottenham

·         Spurs have only kept 2 clean sheets in 11 home games

·         In their last 6, Spurs games have seen 21 goals (joint most with Man United games)

·         In their last 6, Swansea games have seen 18 goals (joint second most)

Although some of the above stats are skewed slightly by the Swansea tramps 0-5 win at QPR on the opening day, in their last two away games they scored twice at Newcastle and Arsenal. With Michu and Defoe both in such red-hot form I am happy to go big on both teams scoring here and hope for another naughty Super Sunday turnout.

3pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 7/10 with bWin and BetVictor

Accumulator:

0.5pts: Palace, Hull, Millwall, Charlton – 51.87/1 with Bet Victor

Draw Treble:

0.25pts: Stoke, QPR, Blackpool – 38.81/1 with Bet Victor

Good luck Regulators, keep the faith and know however bad your run is, the sun will shine on your arsehole at some point. It did on mine last Sunday. Then again, I did take a tramp out for breakfast the other week and karma is a bitch. My bitch.

Enjoy the football men, find me on twitter @drtwerp

Mount Up.

I MISS HER

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