2021 Epsom Cazoo Derby Preview and Betting Tips: Appleby to foil O’Brien favourites

The recognised Derby trials, on both sides of the Irish Sea, are now a matter of record and, unsurprisingly, have prompted a major shake-up in the ante-post betting market.

Now the Derby picture is a little clearer, we’ve exercised due diligence, with regard to the likely contenders, and tried to identify prices that still retain a little ‘juice’.

 

O’Brien dominates the Derby market

Aidan O’Brien is the leading trainer in the history of the Derby with eight winners, all since the turn of the century. Consequently, it was no surprise that High Definition, who won the Group 2 Beresford Stakes, over a mile, on his second start at the Curragh last September, was installed as favourite. However, having missed his intended reappearance in the Lingfield Derby Trial because of an unsatisfactory blood test, High Definition was deposed at the head of the market, first by Mohaafeth and then by stable companion Bolshoi Ballet.

 

High Definition needs to improve, but not much

Nevertheless, his condition improved sufficiently for him to make his seasonal debut in the Dante Stakes at York where, although beaten, he caught the eye when staying on into third place, beaten 2 lengths, behind Hurricane Lane. Hurricane Lane and the second horse home, Megallan, both had the benefit of a previous outing, so to finish third in a truly run race on his first start since September was a highly creditable effort. High Definition needs to improve for the run, and the step up to a mile and a half at Epsom, but remains a leading contender for the Derby.

 

Bolshoi Ballet following a well-trodden route

Bolshoi Ballet was catapulted to Derby favouritism after an emphatic, 6-length success in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown. He previously won the Ballysax Stakes, over the same course and distance, in similarly taking style and, although beaten on his only foray into Group 1 company as a juvenile, as a son of Galileo – who followed the same route to Derby victory in 2001 – he warrants maximum respect.

 

Hurricane Lane ticks all the boxes

The damsire of Dante Stakes winner Hurricane Lane is Shirocco, the sire of Annie Power, so it’s no surprise that he’s blessed with an abundance of stamina. Charlie Appleby’s colt was briefly outpaced at York before rallying to win in gutsy, workmanlike style and will, almost certainly, improve for the step up to a mile and a half. If he does, he must have every chance of confirming the form with High Definition at Epsom and fully deserves his position in the Derby market.

 

One Ruler a live outsider

Hurricane Lane is likely to be joined at Epsom by stable companion One Ruler, also owned by Godolphin, who was the subject of positive whispers before finishing sixth, beaten 5 lengths, in the 2,000 Guineas. By Dubawi out of a Shamardal mare, he is available at huge odds for one so beautifully bred; his trainer reportedly toyed with the idea of running him in the Dante Stakes – traditionally the strongest of the Derby trials – so, while his stamina is questionable, he shouldn’t be written off altogether.

 

John Leeper may surprise a few

Elsewhere, John Leeper, named after John Leeper Dunlop, the late father of trainer, Ed, took another step forward when staying on strongly to win the Fairwater Stakes at Newmarket on just his third start. In so doing, he had the Chester Vase third, Fancy Ma, 6 lengths behind and, with his trainer confident that he’ll stay beyond a mile and a quarter, a forward showing in the Derby would come as no great surprise; he does need to settle better in the early stages than he did at Newmarket.

Bolshoi Ballet was visually impressive at Leopardstown, but is plenty short enough at the odds on offer. With one or two niggling doubts remaining about his stable companion High Definition, preference is for the unbeaten Hurricane Lane, who appears versatile ground-wise and has done everything asked of him so far.

Selection: Hurricane Lane (7/1 with Betfred)

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