2021 Oaks Ante-post Betting Tips – Santa Barbara Favourite for Aidan O’Brien

At the time of writing, the Oaks is less than three weeks away and, with the recognised trials done and dusted, the ante-post market for the second fillies’ Classic is well formed.

We thought it was high time to run a rule over any potential contenders and establish if, in our opinion, Santa Barbara is the ‘good thing’ the betting suggests.

 

Middle distances the key to Santa Barbara

Prior to the 1,000 Guineas, for which Santa Barbara was sent off 5/2 joint-favourite, Aidan O’Brien made no secret of his enthusiasm for the filly. However, he did warn that she would be ‘green’ at Newmarket and that she was, changing her legs and hanging left in the closing stages, before finishing fourth, beaten 1¼ lengths, behind stable companion Mother Earth. However, Santa Barbara had run just once before, when easily winning a run-of-the-mill maiden at the Curragh last September, and O’Brien justifiably described her Newmarket effort as a ‘great run’. The daughter of dual Derby winner Camelot is bred to flourish over middle distances so, with significant improvement likely, she looks to have bright prospects.

 

O’Brien ‘second string’ shouldn’t be underestimated

Snowfall, also trained by Aidan O’Brien, was elevated in the Oaks betting after making all to beat Noon Star by 3¾ lengths in the Tattersalls Musidora Stakes at York. She was sent off at 14/1 on that occasion, having failed to make much impact in Group races as a juvenile but, as a daughter of Deep Impact, she too is bred to come into her own over middle distances. She was granted a ‘soft’ lead at York, but impressively went clear inside the final furlong. How she fares at the highest level, off a stronger pace, remains to be seen, but her lengthy two-year-old campaign could prove to be a blessing, in terms of experience.

 

Zeyaadah can reverse Cheshire Oaks form

Zeyaadah, trained by Roger Varian, tasted defeat for the first time in her fledgling career when beaten a length by Dubai Fountain, to whom she was conceding 3lb, in the Cheshire Oaks at Chester. However, she suffered an interrupted passage, being denied a clear run on the home turn, and officially improved by 7lb on her previous performances. She is by former top-class miler Tamayuz, but clearly stays well enough and appears versatile, ground-wise, so looks a must for any shortlist.

 

Saffron Beach looks overpriced

Saffron Beach kept on well to finish second in the 1,000 Guineas, narrowly ahead of Santa Barbara and, while she lacks the obvious superstar potential of Aidan O’Brien’s filly, remains open to improvement of her own. Her sire, New Bay, won the French Derby and her damsire, Raven’s Pass won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, so there must be a chance that a mile and a half is within her compass. If it is, she could go well at seemingly generous odds; with all due respect to Jane Chapple-Hyam, she would probably be a much shorter price if trained in a more ‘fashionable’ yard.

 

No prizes for originality, I’m afraid

With the likes of Twisted Reality, Sea Empress and A’Shaari doing little to demonstrate their Oaks credentials in the Haras De Bouquetot Fillies’ Trial Stakes at Newbury, it’s frankly hard to see far beyond Santa Barbara. Aidan O’Brien has won the Oaks eight times, including five times in the last nine years, so if he describes Santa Barbara as ‘very exceptional’, as he did before her 1,000 Guineas effort, there seems no reason to doubt his conviction.

Selection: Santa Barbara (15/8 with Bet 365)

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