Supreme Novices Hurdle Tips 2021 – Cheltenham Festival Day 1 (1.30pm)
The Supreme Novice’s Hurdle is arguably the race that brings the biggest roar from the Cheltenham crowd, as it is the first race of the week and the first chances punters have to get a win against the bookies.
It has been dominated by Irish trainers in recent years, there have been five Irish-trained winners in the last eight years, four of which were from the stable of Willie Mullins.
The yard suffered severe disappointment recently when they discovered stable star Ferny Hollow suffered a suspected stress fracture and was ruled out of the festival.
This has made the 2021 Supreme Novice’s Hurdle a much more open prospect, and it is fair to say the Irish Horses are the ones to beat again.
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2021 Odds
|Appreciate It||11/4||William Hill|
|My Drogo||20/1||William Hill|
|Third Time Lucki||20/1||William Hill|
|Bob Olinger||25/1||William Hill|
|Atholl Street||28/1||Paddy Power|
2021 Supreme Novices Hurdle Preview
The first race of the Cheltenham Festival and traditional curtain raiser is the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Get a winner here and our Cheltenham Festival day 1 tips are off to a flyer! Here we see the best young hurdles over 2 miles. The race is always dominated by a fierce betting heat in the build-up as people try and get the best value for their bets. Shishkin took the race last year in a great battle with Abacadabras and the two are expected to meet in the 2021 Champion Hurdle.
The pace is always a fierce one and it is one of the most thrilling races on the whole Cheltenham Festival card. Will it be advantageous bookies or punters after race 1?
Supreme Novices Hurdle Main Contenders
- Appreciate It
- Bob Olinger
- Third Time Lucki
- Flinteur Sacre
Appreciate It has forgotten the disappointment of last season’s Champion Bumper run to score on both his appearances this season.
The six-year-old breezed through a field including Ballyadam to land the Grade One Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown last time out.
This performance took trainer Willie Mullins by surprise and Appreciate It will likely stay in the two-mile sphere and follow a route to the Supreme.
Although Ballyadam was not at his brilliant best when beaten 16 lengths by Appreciate It, we are still learning about this promising Cheveley Park hurdler.
Ballyadam landed the Grade One Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at the end of November, which was its most promising performance yet.
It is important not to be discouraged by his last run as trainer Gordon Elliott said we would learn much about the talented five-year-old in a tougher race.
The horse could improve from this run and we could be in for another mouthwatering showdown between these Irish superstars in the Supreme Novice’s Hurdle.
Henry De Bromhead has a strong hand for this race too, as Bob Olinger has emerged as another top Irish hurdling prospect.
Under the ownership of Robcour, Bob Olinger has won two of three races under rules and the defeat came when finishing only a length behind Ferny Hollow at Gowran Park in November.
De Bromhead said this is an ‘adaptable’ horse and has options to go to Naas in January or the Dublin Racing Festival in February before a potential tilt at the festival opener.
The horse backed up his runner-up finish to Ferny Hollow with a comfortable 14-length win in the Mervyn Gray Construction Maiden Hurdle at Navan.
We also have a set of exciting British challengers for the Supreme Novice’s Hurdle, none more exciting than Nicky Henderson’s Dusart.
Although Dusart has only one career race under rules, he won going away in a promising novice hurdle performance at Newbury in November.
In second place was Soaring Glory, who had been a last-time-out winner beating the impressive Bravemansgame.
As well as being the half-brother to the dual Cheltenham Festival Grade One scorer Simonsig, Dusart has much on his side to show he is a threat to the Irish challenge in the opening race at Cheltenham.
Third Time Lucki
Dan Skelton could also have a say in the Supreme with Third Time Lucki, who finished an impressive fourth in the Champion Bumper at the last Cheltenham Festival.
Third Time Lucki won a novice hurdle at Kempton on Boxing day to follow up a valiant second-place finish in the Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in November.
Owned by Mike and Eileen Newbould, they have a great prospect from a top yard here who should go close in the Cheltenham festival opener.
We were all excited for Flinteur Sacre to reappear on the racecourse this season, but his run at Newbury at the end of November was disappointing at odds of 2-5.
Jockey Nico De Boinville said the horse ran too freely and it is important not to rule out such an inexperienced novice hurdler.
He is the full brother to racing legend Sprinter Sacre who proved more than anyone that any depth of disappointment can be overcome.
Barry Geraghty could not speak more highly of his horse, and the current price of 25/1 for the Supreme could prove to be very generous.
Supreme Novice’ Hurdle Trends
- Age – 12 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6
- Price – 2 of the last 12 favourites/joint-favourites have won, 8/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
- Last Run – 10 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before Cheltenham, 10/12 winners ran within the last 59 days
- 3/12 winners ran in the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown) on their last run, 3 of the 3 won
- Previous Course Form – 5/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
- Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 12/12 had at least 2 previous wins over 15-17 furlongs
- Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 11/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
- Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 142 or higher
- Graded Wins – 10/12 winners had at least previous win in a grade 1-3 race
- Season Form – 12/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 11/12 winners had at least 2 wins that season
Supreme Novices Hurdle Last 10 Winners
|2009||Go Native||Paul Carberry||Noel Meade|
|2010||Menorah||Richard Johnson||Phillip Hobbs|
|2011||Al Ferof||Ruby Walsh||Paul Nicholls|
|2012||Cinders and Ashes||Jason Maguire||Donald McCain|
|2013||Champagne Fever||Ruby Walsh||Willie Mullins|
|2014||Vautour||Ruby Walsh||Willie Mullins|
|2015||Douvan||Ruby Walsh||Willie Mullins|
|2016||Altior||Nico de Boinville||Nicky Henderson|
|2017||Labaik||Jack Kennedy||Gordon Elliott|
|2018||Summerville Boy||Noel Fehily||Tom George|
|2019||Klassical Dream||Ruby Walsh||Willie Mullins|
|2020||Shishkin||Nico de Boinville||Nicky Henderson|
2020 Supreme Novices Hurdle Result
1st – Shiskin (6/1)
2nd – Abacadabras (11/4)
3rd – Chantry House (15/2)
4th – Asterion Forlonge (9/4)
5th – Allart (33/1)
Shiskin got the better of Abacadabras in a fantastic battle up the Cheltenham hill.
2021 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Ante-post Tip
I think Bob Olinger is very exciting, he is lightly raced and has impressed on every start. 20/1 is a good price and this will shorten if he backs up his performances so far in the near future.
Ferny Hollow had been a big fancy before injury, Bob Olinger was close behind in defeat to him at Gowran Park and he kicked on with a win the next time out.
BON OLINGER – 25/1 with William Hill.
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