Supreme Novices Hurdle Tips 2021 – Ballyadam the value bet against Appreciate It

The Supreme Novice’s Hurdle is arguably the race that brings the biggest roar from the Cheltenham crowd, as it is the first race of the week and the first chances punters have to get a win against the bookies.

It has been dominated by Irish trainers in recent years, there have been five Irish-trained winners in the last eight years, four of which were from the stable of Willie Mullins.

The yard suffered severe disappointment recently when they discovered stable star Ferny Hollow suffered a suspected stress fracture and was ruled out of the festival.

This has made the 2021 Supreme Novice’s Hurdle a much more open prospect, and it is fair to say the Irish Horses are the ones to beat again.

 

2021 Supreme Novices Hurdle Preview

The first race of the Cheltenham Festival and traditional curtain raiser is the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Get a winner here and our Cheltenham Festival day 1 tips are off to a flyer! Here we see the best young hurdles over 2 miles. The race is always dominated by a fierce betting heat in the build-up as people try and get the best value for their bets. Shishkin took the race last year in a great battle with Abacadabras and the two are expected to meet in the 2021 Champion Hurdle.

The pace is always a fierce one and it is one of the most thrilling races on the whole Cheltenham Festival card. Will it be advantageous bookies or punters after race 1?

 

1:20 Cheltenham: Supreme Novices Hurdle

The curtain raiser for the Cheltenham Festival is the traditional Supreme Novices Hurdle, run over 2m. The Supreme Novices Hurdle is normally a relentless gallop from flag fall and strong stayers over the 2m trip often come to the fore. Appreciate It heads the market and rightfully so. He has done nothing wrong and holds the Irish on all known form. However, 7-year-olds don’t hold a strong record in the contest and many people will feel 2m4f would be more his trip on the spring ground. It is a very weak renewal of the race but Appreciate It has to be taken on at the price for me.

Metier is a bit of an unknown quantity but there isn’t much substance to his form and quicker ground is a concern.

I think BALLYADAM (5/1 with bet365) is the best play in the race at the prices. He won the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novices Hurdle earlier in the season before running a poor race over Christmas. He scoped dirty after that run so it’s easily forgiven. He more than returned to form when running Appreciate It close at the Dublin Racing Festival. He’s likely to improve for the quicker ground and I don’t think there will be much between him and Appreciate It at the end of the race. Therefore, from a price perspective, Ballyadam will be my play.

Selection: BALLYADAM (5/1 with bet365)

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Supreme Novice’ Hurdle Trends

  • Age – 12 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6
  • Price – 2 of the last 12 favourites/joint-favourites have won, 8/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
  • Last Run – 10 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before Cheltenham, 10/12 winners ran within the last 59 days
  • 3/12 winners ran in the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown) on their last run, 3 of the 3 won
  • Previous Course Form – 5/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
  • Previous Distance Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 12/12 had at least 2 previous wins over 15-17 furlongs
  • Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 11/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
  • Rating – 11/12 winners were rated 142 or higher
  • Graded Wins – 10/12 winners had at least previous win in a grade 1-3 race
  • Season Form – 12/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 11/12 winners had at least 2 wins that season

 

Supreme Novices Hurdle Last 10 Winners

Year Horse Jockey Trainer
2009 Go Native Paul Carberry Noel Meade
2010 Menorah Richard Johnson Phillip Hobbs
2011 Al Ferof Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2012 Cinders and Ashes Jason Maguire Donald McCain
2013 Champagne Fever Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2014 Vautour Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2015 Douvan Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2016 Altior Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson
2017 Labaik Jack Kennedy Gordon Elliott
2018 Summerville Boy Noel Fehily Tom George
2019 Klassical Dream Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2020 Shishkin Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson

 

2020 Supreme Novices Hurdle Result

1st – Shiskin (6/1)

2nd – Abacadabras (11/4)

3rd – Chantry House (15/2)

4th – Asterion Forlonge (9/4)

5th – Allart (33/1)

Shiskin got the better of Abacadabras in a fantastic battle up the Cheltenham hill.

 

2021 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Ante-post Tip

I think Bob Olinger is very exciting, he is lightly raced and has impressed on every start. 20/1 is a good price and this will shorten if he backs up his performances so far in the near future.

Ferny Hollow had been a big fancy before injury, Bob Olinger was close behind in defeat to him at Gowran Park and he kicked on with a win the next time out.

BON OLINGER – 25/1 with William Hill.

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