Supreme Novices Hurdle 2023 Tips & Trends (Cheltenham 1.30pm Day 1 First Race)
The Supreme Novice’s Hurdle is arguably the race that brings the biggest roar from the Cheltenham crowd, as it is the first race of the week and the first chance punters have to get a win against the bookies.
It has been dominated by Irish trainers in recent years, there have been five Irish-trained winners in the last eight years, four of which were from the stable of Willie Mullins. Constitution Hill was the impressive winner last year and he got punters off to a winning start with all the Cheltenham free bets being used to get the best value for betting on the Supreme.
This year the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle looks a wide open race to get the Cheltenham Festival underway and we have put together our thoughts for the race below.
As things stand, we don’t have the answer as to whether Sky Bet will have their money back offer on the 2023 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle but keep checking to see if they announce it.
Supreme Novices Hurdle 2023 Odds: The Main Contenders
- Facile Vega – 10/3
- Marine Nationale – 7/2
- Il Etait Temps – 5/1
- Impaire Et Passe – 9/1
- Tahmuras – 10/1
- Luccia – 11/1
- High Definition – 12/1
- Diverge – 14/1
- Hunters Yarn – 16/1
It’s crazy that the 2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle 2023 is now 10/3 the field after we had an odds-on shot only a few weeks ago.
After winning all 6 starts under rules (4 bumpers and 2 over hurdles) Facile Vega was deemed almost untouchable in this market but all has changed since his blowout at Leopardstown. He is still favourite but is clinging on to that tag from Marine Nationale. I was happy to take Facile Vega on before the DRF based on the bumper form from last year and how easy he had the running in his 2 hurdle starts prior to the DRF.
Facile Vega now has a lot to prove and going into the supreme off that run is a huge concern for me. 23 of the last 26 winners won last time out and that is a stat that stares me straight in the face when looking at the Supreme.
2nd Fav Marine Nationale comes into this off a back of a G1 win last time in the Royal Bond and after starting off his campaign in the summer (extremely rare for a Supreme winner to have had this campaign), he comes here fresh after trainer Barry Connell said the plan was always for him to have a break after that win at the start of December. Marine Nationale might lack experience with only 2 runs over hurdles (and you would have liked a 3rd run to gain greater jumping experience) but Constitution Hill won last year’s Supreme off the back of only 2 career starts so inexperienced horses can win this.
Il Etait Temps
Another G1 winner is Il Etait Temps who was the beneficiary of Facile Vega’s downfall at Leopardstown. He seemed to love the ferocious pace the front 2 set early on and travelled through the race lovely. With the rest of the field not being able to cope with the pace set, he returned a convincing 9-length winner. Il Etait Temps is a 2nd season novice after he was a maiden juvenile last season. Willie has always thought highly of him and now he is showing this form on the track now as a 5yo. With 6 starts over hurdles and improving with every run he has the experience and G1 form needed to win a supreme.
I think none of Willie Mullins’ horses can be dismissed if turning up though. Diverge is an interesting contender after coming off several runs off the flat in France. Only 6th (to High Definition) on his hurdles debut, he impressed next time when bolting up in a fairly weak maiden hurdle at the end of January. Although weak, he put up a decent time figure and I expect him to improve again. If he improves at the same speed from 2nd run to 3rd as he did from 1st to 2nd then I believe he has live chance in this.
Hunters Yarn is another that could be there when turning in. He impressed LTO at Navan beating Imagine by 6 lengths. He had no significant form prior to that win so is hard to judge but if he improves his jumping then he could have a big chance. As he’s one of only a few novices with the 4 runs that qualifies him for a handicap, I have at the back of my mind that Willie could still send this lad to the County hurdle.
The UK form isn’t worth anything to me so I’m not even going to mention anything from there. I would be amazed if the Supreme doesn’t go to Ireland.
Impaire Et Passe and Luccia are weapons in my opinion and would have great chances if lining up here. I’m fairly confident their targets lie elsewhere though so im going through the race with the intention that these wont turn up.
2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle Betting Tip
I believe the Supreme market is one to watch closely in the next 7-10 days as it still evolves around the form/fitness of Facile Vega and at what state he will return to following the Dublin Racing Festival. I still believe he goes off shorter and will get continued support form followers but this means others are likely to be a bigger price than they are now.
My selection for this race is going to be Marine Nationale. I think he has the perfect combination of speed/stamina for the Supreme and even though he’s won on heavy, trainer Barry Connell has mentioned that he will be better on better ground.
With limited rain now due before the festival I think he will love the ground (water good to soft) and everything about the Supreme just screams this horse. He’s best-priced 7/2 now and that’s fair for what he’s achieved and what else is in the race but it wouldn’t surprise me if he drifted in the build-up or on the day. Either way, I think he wins!!
Supreme Novice’ Hurdle Trends 2023
Ahead of the 2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham, punters will use trends to consider which horse to bet on and there are always strong trends for a race such as this one. As we get closer to the 2023 Cheltenham Festival we will be able to narrow down the horses based on the Supreme trends.
- Age – 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6
- Price – 4 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 10/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
- Last Run – 11 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Supreme Novices Hurdle, 11/12 winners ran within the last 66 days
- 4/12 winners ran in the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown) on their last run, 4 of the 4 won, 0 placed
- 2/12 winners ran in the Tolworth Hurdle (Sandown) on their last run, 2 of the 2 won, 0 placed
- Previous Course Form – 6/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham , 2/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
- Previous Distance Form – 10/12 winners had at least 3 previous runs over 15-17 furlongs, 12/12 had at least 2 previous wins over 15-17 furlongs
- Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles, 9/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles, 11/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
- Rating – 10/12 winners were rated 144 or higher
- Graded Wins – 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous win in a grade 1-3 race
- Season Form – 12/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 9/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 11/12 winners had at least 2 wins that season
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2023 Free Bets
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Supreme Novices Hurdle Last 10 Winners
|2010||Menorah||Richard Johnson||Phillip Hobbs||5|
|2011||Al Ferof||Ruby Walsh||Paul Nicholls||6|
|2012||Cinders and Ashes||Jason Maguire||Donald McCain||5|
|2013||Champagne Fever||Ruby Walsh||Willie Mullins||6|
|2014||Vautour||Ruby Walsh||Willie Mullins||5|
|2015||Douvan||Ruby Walsh||Willie Mullins||5|
|2016||Altior||Nico de Boinville||Nicky Henderson||6|
|2017||Labaik||Jack Kennedy||Gordon Elliott||6|
|2018||Summerville Boy||Noel Fehily||Tom George||6|
|2019||Klassical Dream||Ruby Walsh||Willie Mullins||5|
|2020||Shishkin||Nico de Boinville||Nicky Henderson||6|
|2021||Appreciate It||Paul Townend||Willie Mullins||7|
Who won the 2022 Supreme Novices Hurdle?
The 2022 Supreme Novices Hurdle was won in spectacular fashion by Constitution Hill, who is now one of the bankers of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival in the Champion Hurdle.
You can see a replay of that race below and just how well he wins. Jonbon was second in the race and he is one of our tips for the Arkle in 2023 after an impressive start to life over fences.