Horse Racing Tips: 2,000 Guineas Ante-post Preview

The major Classic trials – the Craven Stakes and, to a lesser extent, the European Free Handicap, at Newmarket, and the Greenham Stakes at Newbury – have shed further light on the 2,000 Guineas picture.

The first colts’ Classic is less than two weeks away, so the time is ripe to run the rule over the contenders, and pretenders, to see if there’s any value left in the ante-post market.

 

Aidan O’Brien Rules the Roost

The Master of Ballydoyle, Aidan O’Brien, has won the 2,000 Guineas a record ten times, so it’s no surprise that three of his 12 entries can be found in the first half a dozen in the ante-post betting. That said, Battleground (10/1 with Paddy Power), second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland when last seen in public, has been very easy to back in recent weeks, leaving St. Mark’s Basilica and Wembley (both 6/1 with William Hill) as the pick of the Coolmore-owned entries.

 

Nothing to Choose Between Dewhurst Stakes 1-2-3

St. Mark’s Basilica finished just three-quarters of a length in front of Wembley when they filled the first two places in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket last October. Their form is also closely intertwined with that of the third horse home, Thunder Moon (7/1 with Betfred), trained by O’Brien’s son, Joseph, who had beaten them both, in impressive fashion, on their previous start in the National Stakes at the Curragh. All three horses reportedly head straight to Newmarket without a preparatory race, so much depends on which of them has fared best over the winter.

 

Master Of The Seas Remains One to Consider

Although only fourth in the National Stakes, Master Of The Seas (10/1 with Paddy Power) has already proved his well-being, and his stamina, by winning the Craven Stakes at Newmarket. The Dubawi colt was workmanlike, rather than particularly impressive, when beating his 104-rated stable companion La Barrosa on that occasion, but remains one to consider in an open-looking renewal.

 

Devilwala Bred for Speed

Unsurprisingly, the Dewhurst Stakes form has already proved robust, with the ninth, Chindit (11/1 with Bet365) winning the Greemham Stakes, albeit narrowly, and the eleventh, Tactical, winning the European Free Handicap. Devilwala (66/1 with Boylesports), fourth in the Dewhurst Stakes, was fourth again, further behind the winner, in the Craven Stakes, but he is bred to be a sprinter, so it may be unwise to take the form at face value.

 

Mac Swiney Seemingly Needs Cut in the Ground

Likewise, the New Approach colt Mac Swiney (33/1 with William Hill) was only eighth in the National Stakes, 8¼ lengths behind the winner, Thunder Moon, but appeared to improve for the step up to a mile when keeping on well to beat One Ruler (5/1 with Bet365) by three-quarters of a length in the Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster last October. Indeed, he also took the scalp of Wembley when winning his maiden at the Curragh earlier in the season. However, his three wins have come on yielding, soft and heavy going, so it appears unlikely that he will have his ideal conditions on the Rowley Mile.

 

One Ruler Promoted to Favouritism

By contrast, One Ruler, who started favourite for the Futurity Trophy Stakes, appears less ground-dependent, having won his maiden at Sandown on good going and the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket – in which he beat another O’Brien-trained entry, Vincent Van Gogh (20/1 with William Hill) – on soft going. Originally introduced into the 2,000 Guineas betting at 25/1, One Ruler has been promoted to favouritism after pleasing his trainer Charlie Appleby in a recent racecourse gallop, under Kieren Fallon, on the Rowley Mile.

Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby holds a strong hand, with both Master Of The Seas and One Ruler among his six entries, and if anyone is going to break the O’Brien ‘stranglehold’ on the 2,000 Guineas, he could be the one to do so. With reference to One Ruler, Appleby said, ‘I couldn’t be happier with what I’ve seen over the last six weeks or so’, so perhaps now is the time to take the hint.

Selection: One Ruler (5/1 with Bet365)

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