Irish Grand National Betting Tips: 28/1 selection against the field as Tiger Roll comes out

Inextricably linked to Easter Monday, the Irish Grand National is the most valuable and prestigious race of the Irish National Hunt season.

That said, in 2021, prize money has been cut to just €400,000 but, with a maximum field of 30 runners facing the starter, the Fairyhouse feature remains as competitive as ever.

 

Latest Exhibition

The absence of Tiger Roll means that the weights have gone up 11lb, leaving Latest Exhibition (7/1) with top weight of 11 st 10lb. Paul Nolan’s 8-year-old has never run in, never mind won, a handicap, but boasts Grade One form over hurdles and fences. Even conceding weight all ’round, he should find this an easier assignment than when proving no match for Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase winner Monkfish on his last two starts. However, since the turn of the century, just two horses have carried over 11 stone to victory, so he could be vulnerable to something better treated further down the weights.

 

Sempo

Sempo (8/1) has yet to win beyond 2 miles 6½ furlongs, over hurdles, and remains a maiden after five starts over fences, including two non-completions. However, according to trainer Joseph O’Brien, the 7-year-old, who has twice run at the Cheltenham Festival, holds a ‘big chance’ and has been gambled on accordingly. Sempo jumped much better when second in the Grade Three Flyingbolt Novice Chase at Navan last month, but faces an entirely different test here and, for us, is plenty short enough at the odds on offer.

 

The Big Dog

The Big Dog (8/1) is interestingly insofar as, when the weights were orginally framed, leading amateur rider Jamie Codd was prepared to make 10st 5lb – his lowest riding weight since 2004 – to ride him. Codd rode Peter Fahey’s 8-year-old to a narrow victory in the Punchestown Grand National Trial in February and, while a 9lb rise in the weights make life more difficult, The Big Dog remains unexposed as an out-and-out stayer. All his win have come on soft or heavy going, but he has form on faster ground and appeals as one of the more likely winners.

 

Run Wild Fred & Coco Beach

Denise Foster had no fewer than 13 entries at the five-day declaration stage and Run Wild Fred (9/1) looks the pick of the quintet that remains. Still a maiden after six starts over fences, Run Wild Fred is 8lb better off for the 4 lengths he finished behind stable companion Coko Beach (14/1) in the Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase at Gowran Park in January. He may be capable of reversing that form, for all that he’s done most of his winning on soft or heavy going.

 

Augusta Gold

Willie Mullins, too, has five runners, of whom the mare Agusta Gold (10/1) makes most appeal.  She’s 12lb higher in the weights that when narrowly beaten in the Punchestown Grand National Trial last year, but won at Fairyhouse in January and the return to a marathon trip may show her in even better light.

 

Irish Grand National Tip

For a selection, though, we like the look of Brace Yourself (28/1), who ran well over course and distance in November, on his first attempt beyond 2 miles 6½ furlongs over regulation fences, and remains attractively weighted. He’s 10lb better off for the 13 lengths he finished behind Court Maid last time, which strictlly shouldn’t be enough to reverse the form, but faster underfoot conditions may help; he won first time out at Gowran Park in October, so fitness may not be an issue.

Selection: Brace Yourself (28/1 with William Hill) 

 

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