Football Tips: Andy’s Bundesliga Stats Based Accumulator for Saturday
The Bundesliga Matchday 27 fixtures throw up some interesting fixtures and after just one home win in Matchday 26, we’re still learning if the empty stadiums have a negative effect on the home sides. However, we can still look at the stats and pick one bet from each of the Saturday 23rd May fixtures.
Following the Berlin derby on Friday night, there are five more fixtures taking place on Saturday including leaders Bayern Munich in action against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Andy has crunched the numbers and picked out one bet from each Saturday fixture that can be backed up by some stats.
Bundesliga Stats this Season
First of all, lets take a look at the overall stats for the Bundesliga season so far. The league is always one of the most reliable for goals and that always brings into play BTTS and over 2.5 goals bets.
- Average goals per game: 3.24
- 58% of goals come in the second half
- Both teams to score matches: 59%
- Shots per match: 23.21
- Home teams win 42% of matches, away 36% and 22% have been drawn
Saturday Matches with Highest Combined % of Over 2.5 goals:
76% – Bayern Munich v Frankfurt
73% – Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen
68% – Freiburg v Werder Bremen
62% – Wolfsburg v Dortmund
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Saturday Matches with Highest Combined BTTS Games this Season:
70% – Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen
66% – Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund
64% – Freiburg v Werder Bremen
Wolfsburg vs Borussia Dortmund Stats
Dortmund are getting well backed for this match but the stats might put you off a bet on them to win this game.
They have only won 50% of away matches under manager Lucien Farve and Wolfsburg were 2-1 winners at Augsburg last weekend.
The chance of BTTS looks high here, with the combined average at 66% (league average is 59%).
BTTS has happened in 63% of Wolfsburg’s home matches and 69% of Dortmund’s away.
Given the odds for BTTS are the same as for Dortmund to win, I’m much more confident adding both teams to score to this weekend’s bets.
Selection – BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE.
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen Stats
Goals look assured here, with the combined BTTS % sitting at 70%, over 1.5 goals at 92% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
Unfortunately for punters, the bookies are well aware of this and have priced up BTTS at 1/2 and over 2.5 goals at 8/15.
One interesting stats here is that Leverkusen have scored in both halves in each of their last three matches.
Add to this that Monchengladbach haven’t kept a home clean sheet since their first home game of the season.
Leverkusen have also won 8 of their 13 away matches this season.
SELECTION – Leverkusen to score in both halves: 21/10 at Coral.
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Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Stats
Freiburg have scored 49% of their goals from set-piece situations this season & 11 of their last 15 goals have come directly from set-pieces.
Bremen have conceded 14 goals from headers this season (the most in the league).
They’ve also conceded 44% of their goals from set-pieces this season.
3 or more goals have been scored in 85% of Bremen’s away matches this season.
The average goals in Bremen away games is 3.69 and in Freiburg home matches it’s 2.5.
SELECTION – Over 2.5 goals: 8/11 with Betfair.
Paderborn vs Hoffenheim Stats
Paderborn have lost their last four Bundesliga home matches, conceding 12 goals.
Hoffenheim have kept a clean sheet in all 5 meetings with this weekend opponents.
Hoffenheim have the best away defence in the division, conceding just 12 in 12 matches.
However, they haven’t won in 6 Bundesliga games including last 3 away.
Paderborn average 2.54 cards per game at home.
Hoffenheim average 2.5 cards per game away.
There have been four or more cards in each of Paderborn’s last 16 Bundesliga matches & in each of their last 10 at home.
SELECTION – 40+ booking points @ 6/4 with Betfair.
Bundesliga Stats Accumulator
The odds for all four of these selections to be correct are over 18/1 with Betfair. They are one of the few bookies offering odds on all these markets so you are going to need an account if you want to bet on it.
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