Supreme Novices Hurdle Tip 2023 – Preview and Betting Tips for Race 1 on Tuesday 14th March

The race that kicks off the greatest 4 days in jump racing is the 1.30pm on day 1, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. As the tapes go up for the first time and the famous Cheltenham roar echoes around Prestbury Park, the wait is over.

Winning now becomes everything for everyone from trainers and jockeys to owners and punters. As punters, getting off to a flyer in the supreme can shape the week.

Cinders & Ashes taking the 2012 renewal had me hooked and I’ve been obsessed with the atmosphere and finding winners ever since.

In recent years we’ve had a mix of some seriously strong Supremes (2016 Altior) and some fairly weak ones (2021 Appreciate It). This year’s renewal is wide open after Facile Vega’s run at the DRF and it wouldn’t surprise me if anyone wins this.

We take a look at the odds, main contders and give you an ante-post betting tip for the first race of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.

 

Supreme Novices Hurdle 2023 Odds

• Facile Vega – 2/1
• Marine Nationale – 4/1
• Il Etait Temps – 6/1
• Tahmuras – 11/1
• High Definition – 12/1
• Diverge – 16/1
• Inthepocket – 16/1
• Chasing Fire – 20/1
• Doctor Bravo – 20/1
• Dark Raven – 28/1
• Rare Edition – 30/1
• Strong Leader – 33/1
• Fennor Cross – 66/1
• Palace Boy – 200/1

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Facile Vega

After winning all 6 starts under rules (4 bumpers and 2 over hurdles) Facile Vega was deemed almost untouchable in this market but all has changed since his blowout at Leopardstown. He is still favourite but is clinging on to that tag from Marine Nationale. I was happy to take Facile Vega on before the DRF based on the bumper form from last year and how easy he had the running in his 2 hurdle starts prior to the DRF.

Facile Vega now has a lot to prove and going into the supreme off that run is a huge concern for me. 23 of the last 26 winners won last time out and that is a stat that stares me straight in the face when looking at the Supreme.

60/1 FACILE VEGA TO WIN

 

Marine Nationale

2^nd Fav Marine Nationale comes into this off a back of a G1 win last time in the Royal Bond and after starting off his campaign in the summer (extremely rare for a Supreme winner to have had this campaign), he comes here fresh after trainer Barry Connell said the plan was always for him to have a break after that win at the start of December. Marine Nationale might lack experience with only 2 runs over hurdles (and you would have liked a 3^rd run to gain greater jumping experience) but Constitution Hill won last year’s Supreme off the back of only 2 career starts so inexperienced horses can win this.

 

Il Etait Temps

Another G1 winner is Il Etait Temps who was the beneficiary of Facile Vega’s downfall at Leopardstown. He seemed to love the ferocious pace the front 2 set early on and travelled through the race lovely. With the rest of the field not being able to cope with the pace set, he returned a convincing 9-length winner. Il Etait Temps is a 2^nd season novice after he was a maiden juvenile last season. Willie has always thought highly of him and now he is showing this form on the track now as a 5yo. With 6 starts over hurdles and improving with every run he has the experience and G1 form needed to win a supreme.

 

Diverge

I think none of Willie Mullins’ horses can be dismissed if turning up though. Diverge is an interesting contender after coming off several runs off the flat in France. Only 6^th (to High Definition) on his hurdles debut, he impressed next time when bolting up in a fairly weak maiden hurdle at the end of January. Although weak, he put up a decent time figure and I expect him to improve again. If he improves at the same speed from 2^nd run to 3^rd as he did from 1^st to 2^nd then I believe he has  live chance in this.

 

2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle Betting Tip

My selection for this race is going to be Marine Nationale. I think he has the perfect combination of speed/stamina for the Supreme and even though he’s won on heavy, trainer Barry Connell has mentioned that he will be better on better ground.

With limited rain now due before the festival I think he will love the ground (water good to soft) and everything about the Supreme just screams this horse. He’s best-priced 9/2 now and that’s fair for what he’s achieved and what else is in the race but it wouldn’t surprise me if he drifted in the build-up or on the day. Either way, I think he wins!!

MARINE NATIONALE to win the Supreme Novice Hurdle –  4/1 with William Hill

BET ON THE SUPREME

 

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