Cheltenham Lucky 15 Tips & 1011/1 Accumulator: Gold Cup, Albert Bartlett, Arkle and Mares Hurdle Betting Tips

We’re less than three weeks away from the start of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival and today, Adam has picked out his four ante-post bets for a lucky 15 tip. 

Things get underway in the second race on day 1, the Arkle Chase, before the second selection comes in Tuesday’s Mares Hurdle. The final two selections come from Friday’s day 4 card starting with the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle and then the final pick is from the big race of the week, the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

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ACCUMULATOR ODDS – bet on all four horses to win for a big odds accumulator of 1011/1 with Betfred (same bet is 807/1 with bet365 and 648/1 with Paddy Power).

 

Arkle Chase – SAINT SAM (8/1)

Even though Edwardstone has been impressive this season and is the right favourite for the race, I am happy to take him on as I believe there is value elsewhere. With Ferny Hollow injured and out for the season, this race lacks real star quality.

I don’t think there is much between the top 5 in the market and I’m committing myself to backing the outsider of them in SAINT SAM (8/1 with Betfred). He has a bit to find on the numbers and also has to jump better than he did at the DRF but I believe he will have learned a lot from that.

4 of the top 5 came up against each other in the Irish Arkle and I believe if that race was run another 3 times you could get 3 different winners. Blue Lord is 3/3 this season but Leopardstown was probably his worse performance on the eye and he had to hold off a stewards inquiry to win. He did win though whilst giving the runner up 9lb (which will reduce to 7lb at Cheltenham) and is obviously a serious player. If there is such a thing then Riviere D’etel was the moral winner of that race. A mistake at the last more than likely cost her the race and although she fought back to get to Blue Lord, she ran out of yards to go past. She also has an obvious chance but she’s been on the go a while and that would be my worry. She disappointed when well fancied at last year’s Cheltenham Festival and is also 2lb worse off with the rest of the field from Leopardstown.

Haut En Couleurs is probably the big unknown after only having 1 completed chase start to his name following his fall at the DRF. I know the Mullins team thinks the world of him and ran him in last year’s triumph on his first start for the yard. His inexperience could count against him though and I also believe he could get stepped up in trip and go to the Turners.

Back to my selection. Still only a 5 year old and with 2 chase starts to his name, he doesn’t have the ideal profile for the race but this year’s Arkle could throw up anything. He jumped well on chasing debut and stayed on strongly after the last at the DRF despite those jumping errors and I can see him finishing fast up the Cheltenham hill. He ran well in the Boodles last year and was only 2^nd to a well handicapped Jeff Kidder and although he may lack the experience of Blue Lord and Edwardstone, at the prices I am happy to chance him.

 

Mares Hurdle – TELMESOMETHINGGIRL (11/4)

I think this is a better race than it’s being made out to be by certain areas of the racing world. 5 previous Festival winners could end up coming here and it’s 1 of them I go with in TELMESOMETHINGGIRL (11/4 with Betfred).  Everything this season has been aimed with this race in mind and I don’t believe her 2 runs this season have a huge bearing here. Even though this is quite a competitive field, she’s the right favourite based on her run over Christmas. Even though she was 3^rd to Royal Kahala & Heaven Help Us, she came out best at the weights (had to concede 5 & 8lb respectively).

Both of those horses are dangers to my selection and Royal Kahala has even franked her chances by winning the Galmoy hurdle and giving a beating to Klassical Dream in the process. As good as that form is though I think the Peter Fahey mare (who disappointed at Cheltenham last year) needs a 3m trip or really testing ground.

It looks like the king of mares races Willie Mullins will fire at least 3 or 4 bullets at this but none of his team really worry me at this stage. Echoes in Rain has disappointed, Stormy Ireland just falls below G1 level and Burning Victory’s jumping will let her down.

I would be more worried about a British runner in Marie’s Rock who looks to have turned a corner this season and impressed with a good turn of foot on more than one occasion at Kempton and Warwick. She is a lively outsider and is probably the best each-way value in the race now, however, I am confident TELMESOMETHINGGIRL is the one they all have to beat.

 

Albert Bartlett – HILLCREST (4/1)

I thought this race looked strong a few weeks ago but after going through it in more detail, I think there’s a bet to have.

With Ginto and Journey With Me looking likely to go to the Ballymore and Gerri Colombe ruled out of the race, all of the sudden the race lacks the depth I thought it had a couple of weeks ago.

HILLCREST (4/1 with Betfred) was impressive on the weekend and I’m willing to take a chance on him for this often grueling race for novices. His price has almost gone since the weekend but he has a huge chance and it was good to see him over 3m before being convinced of his staying ability.

The ground at Haydock was heavy and it would worry me slightly that he has hard a hard race only 27 days before for Albert Bartlett but his trainer Henry Daly’s comments (that he wasn’t blowing for too long and it was like he hadn’t had a race) after the race would cancel out that fear.

There are still dangers to my pick but I believe he is the one to beat. Minella Cocooner won well in the Nathaniel Lacy at the DRF and I really don’t understand why he is such a bigger price than the runner-up Minella Crooner. I understand that the latter was a little unlucky and finished off his race well but I think he has shortened far too much since and I’m not sure about his favourites price. Hollow Games has been a little disappointing and I cant see how he turns that form around with the 2 Minella’s.

HILLCREST has course form and has won on a variety of ground conditions. He has 2m4 form so shouldn’t lack for pace either. With 4 completed starts (and an unseated rider) to his name this season and being a 7YO he has a good amount of experience usually needed to win this race.

 

Gold Cup – MINELLA INDO (5/1)

Like my Mares Hurdle selection, my Gold Cup selection is based more on previous Festival form over what has happened on the track this season. I think MINELLA INDO (5/1 with Betfred) will follow Al Boum Photo and win back-to-back Gold Cups. There’s very little to separate the top 3 on their best form and like of Cheltenham so I’m delighted my chance is the biggest price of the 3 currently available.

At Plus Tard is favourite based on his win in the Betfair Chase but I don’t believe there’s any great substance to that form and I’m not sure how he turns the form with Galvin at Xmas around over 3m2. Galvin is the one I fear the most and his career-best win at Christmas along with staying well at the track over a longer trip in the NHC makes him a serious contender.

I can’t see anyone else winning this. Al Boum Photo will run well and may sneak into a place but I think he will find 1 or 2 too good for him like last year. The fact he is now a 10YO counts against him too. Protektorat is barely a G1 horse let alone a Gold Cup hopeful and I cant see how he has any chance. Conflated won well at the DRF but he has to improve dramatically again. Tornado Flyer is one that is overpriced in my opinion. I don’t understand how he is bigger than Conflated or Protektorat. I expect him to run well and improve again but whether he has enough to win is another matter.

MINELLA INDO’S festival record reads 121 and could have easily been 111. He comes alive at the track and this time of year and I see no reason why he won’t add to those 1’s in this year’s Gold Cup.

 

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