Sunday’s ITV Racing Tips – Ten Live Races with the Scottish National and Raicing from Newbury

1:00 Newbury

The first race on his spectacular Sunday is a very competitive maiden over the 1m distance. The Gosden team have the Sea The Stars colt Derab heading the market after making an encouraging debut at Ascot which he’ll be expected to build on.

However, I am happy to take him on with SNOW LANTERN (13/8) here from the Richard Hannon team. She was also second on her debut at Ascot but her race has worked out better with plenty of winners coming out of that race. She’s out of Frankel and I think she’ll be well suited by this step up to 1m. The Hannon team have started the season strong and that can continue here.

 

1:15 Ayr

The first from Ayr today is a 2m handicap chase contest. King D’Argent heads the market after an impressive victory last time out and he’ll look to give Harry Skelton yet another winner.

I’m happy to chance THEINVAL (7/1) here at the prices. I’ll probably know my fate very early on but on his day, he’s the best of this lot. The ground will be ideal for him here and he won this race back in 2018 so we know he acts at the track. If he can get into a nice jumping rhythm early I think he could make a mockery of the generous prices around for him at the moment.

 

1:35 Newbury

The 1:35 from Newbury is a Group 3 contest over the 1m4f trip registered as the Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes.

It’s all about AL AASY NAP (5/4) for me here. He was very good for the majority of his 3-year old campaign last season winning two decent races at Newmarket before running disappointingly at Glorious Goodwood on his final start. That track isn’t for everyone and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of this horse yet. I think he’ll improve from 3 to 4 and I think he’ll prove the best of this lot here today before stepping up in grade later in the season.

 

1:50 Ayr

The 1:50 race from Ayr is a 3m handicap chase. Five Star Getaway buds to defy a lofty hike in the weights here as he bids to make it a four-timer.

I’ll chance FLEGMATIK EW (10/1) for the Skelton team here. He ran an encouraging race last time out when finishing fourth at Uttoxeter. This return to quicker ground will be ideal for him and the likely strong pace in this contest will suit this hold up performer.

 

2:10 Newbury

The 2:10 at Newbury is a cracking little race. It is the Dubai Duty Free Stakes, a Group 3 contest for the fillies over the 7f trip.

I like ALCOHOL FREE here who had the re-opposing Dandalla and Happy Romance in behind when winning the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes last time out back in September. I think the 7f is obviously an unknown for all three but I don’t think the trip will be a problem for any if they all settle. Given the form Andrew Balding has started this campaign in and the high regard Alcohol Free is held in, I expect him to confirm the form from last time out and win this.

 

2:25 Ayr

The Scottish Champion Hurdle is next up over 2m and Calico has been a significant marker mover throughout the week for the Skelton team. I just worry he doesn’t want a battle given his run at Kempton last time out and for that reason, I’m happy to look elsewhere.

I think MILKWOOD (5/2) is the one to beat here. His third in the County Hurdle last time out was a fantastic effort given the Irish domination throughout the week especially over hurdles. That ground wouldn’t have been his ideal conditions either so you can make that up even more. He now gets his perfect conditions, a fast 2m on fast ground. I think this has been the plan for a while now and I think he’ll prove tough to beat.

 

2:45 Newbury

The 2:45 from Newbury is the Greenham Stakes, a Group 3 over 7f for the Colts and geldings. The favourite is Chindit who won his first three as a 2-year-old before finishing a well beaten 9th on very tacky ground in the Dewhurst on his final start. This return to better ground is what he wants and he’s probably the right favourite.

However, I’ll take a punt on FUNDAMENTAL (8/1) for the Gosden pair. He has been steadily brought along running three times as 2-year-old winning his final start at Chelmsford going away.  He’s managed to have a recent run again at Chelmsford where he won well always doing enough. I believe that will give him an edge over his rivals as he won’t be lacking for race fitness. Frankie gets the leg up which again, can only be a positive and I find it interesting that the Gosden duo have chose to send him here.

 

3:00 Ayr

The 3:00 race from Ayr is a Novice Chase over 2m4f. Allmankind is all speed and he steps up from 2m here for the first time over fences and the extra distance has to be an unknown given his racing style. The Arkle 4th of 5 runners wasn’t his best performance and I am happy to take him on after a hard season.

I will take him on with TAMAROC DU MATHAN NB (6/4). I was impressed with his win last time out at Kempton where he travelled well and jumped well throughout to beat GA Law by 4l in a Grade 2. I think he’s a horse on the upgrade and I think Allmankind can set it up for him here.

 

3:20 Newbury

The 3:20 from Newbury is a competitive handicap over the 1m distance known as the Spring Cup.

The one I’ve landed on is JOHAN EW (11/1) for the William Haggas team. He ran first time out last season here at Newbury where he stayed on strongly to win over this course and distance. He now follows a similar path this season returning here at Newbury and he has his ideal conditions. The Haggas team have started the season well which is an added bonus and I struggle to see him not hitting the frame here at least.

 

3:35 Ayr

The finale in the Scottish Grand National over a marathon trip of basically 4m. The good ground will make it less demanding than most nationals but it’s likely to be a strong pace throughout with the likes of Aye Right and Vintage Clouds likely to be prominent setting strong fractions.

The one for me is SOLDIER OF LOVE EW (15/2). This horse managed to rack up a four timer over the Summer/Autumn of 2020. He then went to Cheltenham and finished a good second behind Cheltenham Festival winner Galvin which was a good effort too. He pulled up on his latest start which was back in November and in my opinion that was down to the combination of bad ground which he hates and 6 runs in a short period of time. Nicholls has gave him a nice break since waiting for the good ground to return and he gets it here. I have no stamina concerns and I think he’ll run well in a wide-open renewal of the race.

 

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