Premier League Stats Ahead of this Weekend’s Fixtures
People are using statistics more and more when betting on the Premier League and so we want to take the hard work out and do the analysis for you.
Using various tools such as xG and recent form, we can look for a Premier League betting tip on each match this weekend, based on the statistics available to us.
Each week this section will be updated with new stats for the upcoming round of fixtures and bests will also be recommended for you to place. You can choose whether to bet on all of the tips, some of the tips or a selection of the bets in the form of an accumulator.
Saturday 26th September
The weekend Premier League action gets underway on Saturday lunch-time and there are four games spread across the day.
Brighton vs Manchester United Key Stats
- Manchester United lost 3-1 on Saturday against Crystal Palace.
- Brighton have won three of their last six matches in all competitions.
- Brighton’s xG in their home match with Chelsea was 1.27.
- Their xG conceded was 1.38 but they ended up losing the match 3-1.
- The xG stats for Man Utd v Palace were 1.32 vs 1.82, showing Palace deserved their victory.
It was a terrible start for Manchester United in the Premier League last weekend. In a match filled with VAR controversy they lost 3-1 thanks to two Wilfried Zaha goals. They did get back to winning ways in the League Cup on Tuesday night, beating Luton 3-0 but that was after a goalless first half.
For Brighton, they lost 3-1 to Chelsea before bouncing back to beat Newcastle 3-0 at St. James’ Park. In that match they restricted Newcastle to an xG or just 0.6, generating an xG of 1.8 for themselves. This was partly due to Maupay’s penalty but the striker did score twice.
Brighton have only kept one clean sheet in their last 10 home matches in the Premier League and United have only kept two clean sheets in their last eight games.
Both teams to Score – 4/5 with bet365.
Crystal Palace vs Everton Key Stats
- Both sides have had faultless starts to their Premier League campaign.
- Everton scored five at home to West Brom last weekend, with an xG of 3.77.
- Crystal Palace had 11 shots from just 37% of possession at Old Trafford but scored three goals.
- Palace beat Southampton 1-0 in their opening home game of the season, creating just five shots.
- Everton have had 32 shots in their opening two matches
Carlo Ancelotti’s Everton have been one of the most impressive teams in the early games this season. They have had 32 shots in their two games and have an overall xG of 2.53, compared to Palace’s 1.71. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been the main goal threat for the Blues this season, scoring four in two games and his xG per game is 1.44.
Ancelotti will be worried by how easily West Brom scored two goals last week, despite a low xG of 0.35, but his side look set to continue their strong start to the season.
Everton to win and BTTS – 15/4 with bet365.
West Brom vs Chelsea Key Stats
- Against Everton, West Brom’s xG was just 0.35 and they only had five shots on goal.
- Chelsea lost 2-0 against Liverpool but were well in the game before the red card.
- Their xG in that game was 0.9, but Jorginho missed the late penalty.
- Chelsea’s xG average across their two games so far is 1.2, and conceding 1.5
- Their xG per game is 3.1 and West Brom’s is 3.8.
The Baggies were in the game against Everton last weekend before Kieran Gibbs’ stupid sending off. That left them with a mountain to climb and eventually sucum to Everton’s greater attacking intent. West Brom have now conceded eight goals in two matches and that will be a big concern for Slaven Bilic.
Frank Lampard’s new Chelsea signings haven’t hit the ground running just yet and having seen limited openings in the first two matches, Timo Werner will be looking to break his duck here. The German had only had one shot on target in his opening two matches, with an xG per game of 0.46.
Chelsea are likely to win this match but with the high xG per game of both sides, over 2.5 goals is the selection for a betting tip.
Over 2.5 goals – 4/6 with bet365.
Burnley vs Southampton Key Stats
- Burnley lost 4-2 against Leicester but they were ahead on xG, suggesting they were slightly unlucky.
- Southmapton were threashed 5-2 by Spurs but they were also ahead on the xG.
- Southampton’s xG average over their two games this season is 1.87.
- Burnley scored twice at Leicester but their xG was 2.77, suggesting some big chances were missed.
It has been a very disappointing start for Southampton this season and their manager is one in the running for the first Premier League manager to be sacked at this early stage. The 5-2 loss against Spurs can be put down partly to a one off display from Heung-Min Son, who scored four goals from an xG of 0.9.
However, Burnley were unfortunate to come away from the King Power Stadium with a 4-2 defeat last weekend. They had 16 shots in the match with five on target and three blocked. Burnley look a good bet to win this match despite being the away side.
Burnley to win – 9/4 with bet365.
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