Expected Goals in Football Betting: What It Is And Why You Should Use It

xG in football betting

Quite often when you’re betting or hunting around for the best football betting tips you’ll encounter something labelled xG. This is expected goals and has been somewhat of a phenomenon in recent years. 

It’s a metric that is all about predicting the number of goals that is expected in the match and it can be incredibly useful for placing your bets. So, what is it and how does it work?

 

What Is Expected Goals (xG)?

Expected Goals is a unique statistic that is designed to help people understand how many goals that are likely to be scored by each team in a football match. It uses science and a number of data points to pull together one figure that correlates to the number of goals that are likely to be scored in that particular match.

Created by Opta, the statistic is regularly used by bookmakers and it will often come in decimal place form, for example, you might see Brighton & Hove Albion are expected to score 1.4 goals in a game. When analysed against their opponents xG you can then get a good idea of which team is favourite to win the match.

 

How Does Expected Goals (xG) Work?

Expected goals uses a huge range of data points in what is a rather complex algorithm to determine how many goals a team is likely to score in a match. The brand have analysed hundreds of thousands of football matches and takes into account stats such as how many shots a team takes on average, where on the pitch they are taken from, details on assists, players, distances and so, so much more. This is then compiled together and compared against a team’s opponent to determine the xG for that fixture.

This can then be used to bet on football matches, and is particularly popular among Premier League fans. So, for example, if Brighton had an xG of 1.4 and they were taking on Manchester City who had an xG of 3.2, rounding up or down you could perhaps expect Manchester City to win the game 3-1.

 

Variations of Expected Goals

There are a number of different variations you’ll find with Expected Goals, which all have different meanings. These include:

  • Expected Goals (xG): The number of goals a team is expected to score in a game.
  • Non-Penalty Expected Goals (npxG): The number of goals a team is expected to score that doesn’t include penalties.
  • Expected Goals For (xGf): This is the expected number of goals a team is likely to score across a season.
  • Expected Goals Against (xGa): This is the expected number of goals a team is likely to concede across a season.
  • Expected Points (xPts): This is the expected number of points a team is likely to collect across an entire season.

 

The Best Markets to Use Expected Goals (xG)

When it comes to betting there are a host of different markets that are perfect for using this metric, many of which we offer tips on right across the season. Of course, these markets largely revolve around the result of a fixture or the number of goals scored.

Among the best bets to place using guidance from Expected Goals are:

 

Test Your Expected Goals (xG) Betting With A Free Bet

If you fancy testing out how xG can aid your betting but don’t want to do so with your own bankroll, then why not try one of our fantastic free bets? You’ll find all the top bookmakers offer great free bets and they’re perfect for trying out xG across whatever market you please.

You’ll find some great welcome bonuses across this site to sign-up to, with some of our very favourites featured below…

1.
Betfred Price Boost 1 Betfred Price Boost 1

Completely Free £2 Bet for Serbia vs England (click & go to the homepage)

New and existing customers. Opt-in . £2 free bet credited within 24 hours. Max 1x per customer for use on Serbia v England only. Expires at full-time. T&Cs apply.
2.
bet365 Euros 2024 Sign-up Offer – Bet £10 get £30 in Free Bets for New Customers bet365 Euros 2024 Sign-up Offer – Bet £10 get £30 in Free Bets for New Customers

Bet £10 Get £30 in Euros Free Bets

✔️Our top rated bookmaker
✔️Great existing customer offers
✔️Competitive odds on football

18+. begambleaware.com. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration required.
3.
Betfred Sign-up Offer & Promo Code June 2024 – Bet £10 get £50 in Free Bets Betfred Sign-up Offer & Promo Code June 2024 – Bet £10 get £50 in Free Bets

Bet £10 get £50 in Free Bets

✔️Generous sign-up offer of £50
✔️Loads of different betting markets
✔️Well known brand in the UK

New customers only. Register with SUMMER50 between 31/05/24 – 14/07/24. First bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get 3 x £10 in Sports Free Bets & 2 x £10 in Acca Free Bets within 10 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. Full T&Cs apply
4.

Bet £10 get £50 in Free Bets

New UK customers only. The qualifying bet should be either a Single or Acca (2+ selections) bet, start at £10, have 1.9 or greater odds and must be settled within 7 days of sign-up. 5 Free bets which must be placed with a min odds of 2 include: 1 x £10 Free bet on any Pre-match Football game (single); 1 x £10 Free Bet for Horse Racing (single); 1 x £10 Free Bet for Acca (min 2 selections) Bet on any sport; 1 x £10 Free Bet for Acca (min 3 selections) Bet on any sport; 1 x £10 Free Bet for Acca (min 4 selections) Bet on any sport. Max payout – £500. 7 day expiry. To unlock the offer, complete the first deposit via the banking app (Open banking). 18+. BeGambleAware.com. T&Cs apply.
5.

Bet £25 get a £50 Free Bet

✔️£50 free bet when you bet £25
✔️Promo code BB50 gets the offer
✔️Relatively new bookies

New Players Only. Min £ 25 qualifying bets stake not returned. Free bet - one-time stake of £ 50, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. 1X wager the winnings. Wager from real balance first. Wager calculated on bonus bets only. Max conversion: £200. Valid for 7 Days from issue. Withdrawal requests void all active/pending bonuses. Excluded Skrill and Neteller deposits. Full Terms apply. 18+. Begambleaware.org. #ad
6.

Free Bet up to £25 and 25 Free Spins

#AD New UK/IE customers only. Sign up and place your first sports bet at odds of Evens (2.0) or greater and if it loses, get a free bet equivalent to 50% of your first bet stake (min £10), to a maximum value of £25, plus 25 free spins on Gold Horsey Winner. Full T&Cs apply. 18+ | GambleAware.org
7.

Bet £10 get £40 in Free Bets

18+ New customers only. Opt in, bet £10  on any football market at minimum 1/1 odds. No cash out. Get £40 in Free Bets on selected events. Free Bets expire in 7 days. Debit card / Apple Pay payments only. T&Cs apply, see below. begambleaware.org | Please gamble responsibly
8.

Bet £10 get £30 in Free Bets

✔️One of the best-known UK bookies
✔️Daily price boosts
✔️Good offers for existing customers

18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply. #ad

Relevant news