Expected Goals in Football Betting: What It Is And Why You Should Use It
Quite often when you’re betting or hunting around for the best football betting tips you’ll encounter something labelled xG. This is expected goals and has been somewhat of a phenomenon in recent years.
It’s a metric that is all about predicting the number of goals that is expected in the match and it can be incredibly useful for placing your bets. So, what is it and how does it work?
What Is Expected Goals (xG)?
Expected Goals is a unique statistic that is designed to help people understand how many goals that are likely to be scored by each team in a football match. It uses science and a number of data points to pull together one figure that correlates to the number of goals that are likely to be scored in that particular match.
Created by Opta, the statistic is regularly used by bookmakers and it will often come in decimal place form, for example, you might see Brighton & Hove Albion are expected to score 1.4 goals in a game. When analysed against their opponents xG you can then get a good idea of which team is favourite to win the match.
How Does Expected Goals (xG) Work?
Expected goals uses a huge range of data points in what is a rather complex algorithm to determine how many goals a team is likely to score in a match. The brand have analysed hundreds of thousands of football matches and takes into account stats such as how many shots a team takes on average, where on the pitch they are taken from, details on assists, players, distances and so, so much more. This is then compiled together and compared against a team’s opponent to determine the xG for that fixture.
This can then be used to bet on football matches, and is particularly popular among Premier League fans. So, for example, if Brighton had an xG of 1.4 and they were taking on Manchester City who had an xG of 3.2, rounding up or down you could perhaps expect Manchester City to win the game 3-1.
Variations of Expected Goals
There are a number of different variations you’ll find with Expected Goals, which all have different meanings. These include:
- Expected Goals (xG): The number of goals a team is expected to score in a game.
- Non-Penalty Expected Goals (npxG): The number of goals a team is expected to score that doesn’t include penalties.
- Expected Goals For (xGf): This is the expected number of goals a team is likely to score across a season.
- Expected Goals Against (xGa): This is the expected number of goals a team is likely to concede across a season.
- Expected Points (xPts): This is the expected number of points a team is likely to collect across an entire season.
Unexpected Goal of the Week:
Son Heung-Min – 0.03(xG)pic.twitter.com/46KSAX4Stl
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) September 19, 2022
The Best Markets to Use Expected Goals (xG)
When it comes to betting there are a host of different markets that are perfect for using this metric, many of which we offer tips on right across the season. Of course, these markets largely revolve around the result of a fixture or the number of goals scored.
Among the best bets to place using guidance from Expected Goals are:
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