Today's Football Tips
Why this bet
Five, 2, 2, 3, 2 and 1 in his last six - two or more in five of them, at 2.99 per 90 across 992 minutes.Thirty-three shots is the highest total in either squad and he adds 2.36 fouls drawn and 2.54 tackles per 90. He is involved whether or not the shooting comes off.Why this bet
Two, 3, 4, 3, 1 and 4 in his last six - two or more in five of them, at 2.50 per 90 across 1,658 minutes.That is the largest defensive sample in either squad and the steadiest run on the page. Birmingham enter the final third 71.10 times a game, which is where the work comes from.Why this bet
One, 3, 3, 2, 3 and 4 in his last six - two or more in five of them, at 2.34 per 90 across 1,075 minutes.Birmingham commit 12.00 fouls a game and Priske carries the largest share from the front. The risk is minutes rather than rate.Why this bet
City took 7.50 corners a game last season against Palace's 3.70, the widest gap between two sides in our records. On that rate the line clears about 76% of the time and the price implies 58%.The mechanism is in the clearances. Palace clear 30.60 times a match to City's 17.90, and a defence that clears rather than plays out concedes corners by design.City also register 38.70 touches in the box to Palace's 23.05 and hold 61.1% of the ball. This is the largest gap between record and price anywhere on this page.Tomorrow's Football Tips
Why this bet
3, 2, 3, 3, 2 and 4 in his last six - three or more in four of them, at 2.67 per 90 across 1,584 minutes.Four of six is 67% against an implied 62% at the price, so the record is ahead of the market. His 47 tackles is the highest total in either squad.Forest are 15.6% to win on the market and set up in a 3-4-2-1, so Williams spends the afternoon as a defending wing-back. That is the shape this leg wants.Why this bet
4, 5, 2, 4, 2 and 1 in his last six - three or more in four of them, at 3.00 per 90 across 1,228 minutes.That is 67% against an implied 44% at 5/4, the widest gap on this page. Forty-one tackles is the highest total in either squad.Hull make 18.05 tackles a game to Coventry's 14.20 and clear the ball 33.40 times a match. A side set up to defend gives its holding midfielder plenty to do.Why this bet
1, 0, 2, 1, 2 and 2 in his last six - two or more in four of them, at 1.54 per 90 across 1,231 minutes.Sixty-seven per cent against an implied 27% at 11/4 - the largest edge anywhere on this page and the reason it is worth taking at the longer line rather than the 1+ one.Why this bet
The same run gives five of six at the shorter line, or 83%, against an implied 64%.The edge is smaller than at 2+ but the floor is firmer. Coventry commit only 9.75 fouls a game, the lower of the two figures, which is the honest argument against both versions.Why this bet
1, 2, 0, 1, 1 and 1 in his last six - on target in five of them, at 0.96 per 90 across 1,311 minutes.That is 83% against an implied 55%, the widest gap on this page. Thirty-six shots and 14 on target is the largest attacking sample at Bournemouth now Eli Junior Kroupi is out until October.The single blank came at home to Manchester City in a full ninety, which is the honest caveat rather than a rotation issue. The 1.5 line at 9/2 implies 18% against a record of one in six and is the trap version.Why this bet
2, 4, 3, 3, 1 and 4 in his last six - three or more in four of them, at 2.90 per 90 across 1,800 minutes.Sixty-seven per cent against an implied 55%. Fifty-eight tackles is the highest total in either squad and 1,800 minutes is a full season - there is no rotation risk in the sample.Everton hold 44.2% of the ball and win 53.3% of their duels, the higher figure. A left-back against a side that plays direct is where the volume comes from.Why this bet
3, 2, 1, 3, 2 and 2 in his last six - two or more in five of them, at 2.18 per 90 across 1,528 minutes.Eighty-three per cent against an implied 75%. Short, but the floor is genuinely one and 37 tackles from a forward is unusual volume.The 2.5 line at Evens implies 50% against a record of two in six. The market has the shorter line about right and the longer one badly wrong.Why this bet
3, 3, 2, 5, 2 and 3 in his last six - two or more in all six, at 3.79 per 90 across 522 minutes.A hundred per cent against an implied 65%. Nobody in either squad has a cleaner sequence, and the floor across the run is two rather than one.The 522 minutes are the caveat and they matter here. With Sarr, Kulusevski, Maddison and Xavi Simons all out, Spurs' midfield options are thin enough that he should start - but on our own scale that is squad-player territory.Why this bet
The same run gives four of six at the longer line, or 67%, against an implied 38% at 13/8.Bigger edge, and the floor is still two. This is the better bet of the pair if you are taking it as a single rather than as a build leg.Why this bet
2, 5, 5, 1, 0 and 3 in his last six - two or more in four of them, at 2.81 per 90 across 1,153 minutes.Sixty-seven per cent against an implied 36%. The largest defensive sample Newcastle have left after selling Bruno Guimaraes and losing Joelinton to injury.The zero came at Brighton in a full ninety, so the run is boom-or-bust rather than steady. That is why the 1.5 line is the one to take rather than the 2.5.Why this bet
3, 3, 2, 5, 2 and 3 in his last six - two or more in all six, at 3.79 per 90 across 522 minutes.A hundred per cent against an implied 65%. Nobody in either squad has a cleaner sequence, and the floor across the run is two rather than one.The 522 minutes are the caveat and they matter here. With Sarr, Kulusevski, Maddison and Xavi Simons all out, Spurs' midfield options are thin enough that he should start - but on our own scale that is squad-player territory.Why this bet
The same run gives four of six at the longer line, or 67%, against an implied 38% at 13/8.Bigger edge, and the floor is still two. This is the better bet of the pair if you are taking it as a single rather than as a build leg.Why this bet
2, 5, 5, 1, 0 and 3 in his last six - two or more in four of them, at 2.81 per 90 across 1,153 minutes.Sixty-seven per cent against an implied 36%. The largest defensive sample Newcastle have left after selling Bruno Guimaraes and losing Joelinton to injury.The zero came at Brighton in a full ninety, so the run is boom-or-bust rather than steady. That is why the 1.5 line is the one to take rather than the 2.5.Upcoming Football Tips
Why this bet
3, 2, 1, 2, 3 and 2 in his last six - two or more in five of them, at 1.32 per 90 across 1,570 minutes.That is 83% against an implied 36% at 7/4, the widest gap in favour of a record we have found this weekend. He has been fouled in all six.Sunderland are fouled 2.40 times a game in the final third against Fulham's 1.50, and Sadiki is the midfielder they play through.Why this bet
4, 0, 3, 2, 1 and 1 in his last six - two or more in three of them, at 1.59 per 90 across 1,300 minutes.Fifty per cent against an implied 48%. A level bet rather than a value one, and it is here because Fulham commit 10.75 fouls a game and Xhaka takes the ball under pressure more than anyone at Sunderland.Why this bet
1, 4, 2, 2, 6 and 2 in his last six - two or more in five of them, at 2.77 per 90 across 1,624 minutes.Eighty-three per cent against an implied 50% at Evens. Fifty tackles is the most in either squad, and Sunderland make only 14.05 a game as a side - almost all of it goes through him.Why this bet
6, 3, 2, 6, 4 and 3 in his last six - three or more in five of them, at 3.11 per 90 across 1,736 minutes.That is 83% against an implied 48%, the widest gap on this page. Sixty tackles is the highest total in either squad and he has never gone below two in the run.Leeds hold 45.3% of the ball and clear it 33.30 times a game, the higher figure of the two. A full-back in that side defends for most of the afternoon.Why this bet
The same run gives three of six at the longer line, or 50%, against an implied 27% at 11/4.Bigger edge, softer floor. Two of the six were sixes and two were threes, so this needs the busier version of his afternoon rather than the typical one.Why this bet
3, 3, 3, 2, 1 and 2 in his last six - two or more in five of them, at 3.26 per 90 across 1,105 minutes.Eighty-three per cent against an implied 69%. The best tackle rate at Leeds and the most consistent sequence on the page - no zeros and nothing above three.Why this bet
3, 2, 3, 3, 1 and 4 in his last six - three or more in four of them, at 1.76 per 90 across 1,227 minutes.That is 67% against an implied 22% at 7/2, the widest gap on this page. He has played every minute of all six, so there is no rotation risk in the sequence.Ipswich are 13% to win on the market and hold 54.7% of the ball in the Championship. They will have far less of it here, and a centre-back defending for eighty minutes is the shape this leg wants.Why this bet
The same run gives five of six at the shorter line, or 83%, against an implied 44% at 5/4.Smaller edge, firmer floor. The one miss was a single tackle rather than none, so this is the version to take if you want the leg to survive a quiet afternoon.Why this bet
2, 4, 1, 3, 3 and 2 in his last six - three or more in three of them, at 2.00 per 90 across 1,397 minutes.Fifty per cent against an implied 36% at 7/4. He has not gone below one in the run and has played in all six.With Casemiro gone, Ugarte out until April and Mainoo only back in training, United's midfield is thin enough that a full-back's defensive numbers matter more than usual.Why this bet
2, 3, 3, 2, 4 and 1 in his last six - two or more in five of them, at 2.69 per 90 across 1,240 minutes.That is 83% against an implied 60%, and 37 fouls drawn is the highest total in either squad. He has been fouled in all six, so the floor is one.Arsenal commit 10.35 fouls a game, marginally the lower figure, which is the argument against. Villa at 15% on the market will be countering rather than controlling, and Buendia is who they counter through.Why this bet
The same run gives three of six at the longer line, or 50%, against an implied 33% at 2/1.Bigger edge, softer floor. Two of the six were exactly two, so this needs the busier version of his evening rather than the typical one.Why this bet
3, 2, 4, 1, 1 and 2 in his last six - two or more in four of them, at 2.39 per 90 across 641 minutes.Sixty-seven per cent against an implied 45% at 6/5. The best fouls-drawn rate in either squad, though 641 minutes puts him in squad-player territory rather than ever-present.Match Previews and Tips
Today
20:00Wrexham vs Birmingham CityChampionship12 tips20:00Crystal Palace vs Manchester CityPremier League11 tipsTomorrow
12:30Liverpool vs Nottingham ForestPremier League13 tips15:00Coventry vs Hull CityPremier League10 tips15:00Bournemouth vs EvertonPremier League10 tips17:30Tottenham vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League11 tips17:30Tottenham vs Newcastle UnitedPremier League11 tipsSun 30 Aug
14:00Sunderland vs FulhamPremier League10 tips14:00Leeds vs BrentfordPremier League12 tips16:30Manchester United vs Ipswich TownPremier League12 tipsMon 31 Aug
20:00Aston Villa vs ArsenalPremier League11 tips
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Odds correct at the time of writing and subject to change. 18+. GambleAware.org.
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