Stayers Hurdle Tips 202 (3.05pm Cheltenham Day 3) – Thyme Hill and Paisley Park to do battle up the Cheltenham hill

Many people are talking up the Stayers Hurdle as the battle of Thyme Hill vs Paisley Park, but there is definitely some each-way value to be had and the likes of last years winner Lisnagar Oscar cannot be ruled out.

There are still a lot of horses declared for the Stayers Hurdle but even so, it is hard to see far beyond the first three or four in the ante-post betting market.

 

Stayers Hurdle Betting Odds

HorseOddsBookies
Paisley Park10/3bet365
Thyme Hill4/1bet365
Sire Du Berlais9/1William Hill
Benie Des Dieux14/1bet365
Roksana14/1William Hill
Flooring Porter16/1William Hill
McFabulous20/1bet365
Champ20/1bet365
Ronald Pump20/1bet365

 

Stayers Hurdle Main Contenders

  • Paisley Park
  • Thyme Hill
  • Roksana
  • McFabulous
  • Sire Du Berlais
  • Ronald Pump

 

Paisley Park & Thyme Hill

The prolific Paisley Park (100/30) suffered his first defeat in eight starts when only seventh, at odds-on, in this race last year, but was subsequently discovered to have suffered a fibrillating heart, so that effort is best forgotten. Indeed, Emma Lavelle’s 9-year-old has looked as good as ever so far this season, finishing a 1½-length second to Thyme Hill (4/1) in the Grade Two Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November and reversing that form, albeit only narrowly, on 3lb better terms in the Grade One Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot the following month. McFabulous (20/1), third at Newbury, and Roksana (14/1), third at Ascot, have both since won in taking style to frank the form but, barring accidents, they may struggle to reverse the form.

 

Sire Du Berlais

A more potent threat may come from Sire Du Berlais (8/1), who won the Pertemps Network Final at the Cheltenham Festival in both 2019 and 2020 and the Grade Two Lismullen Hurdle, over a seemingly inadequate 2 miles 4 furlongs, at Navan in November. That said, Gordon Elliott’s 9-year-old was put firmly in his place when only third, beaten 6¾ lengths, behind Flooring Porter (16/1) in the Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle. Sire Du Berlais evidently reserves his best for the Cheltenham Festival, where he also finished fourth in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle in 2018, but reopposes Flooring Porter on the same terms, so why he is half the price of Gavin Cromwell’s 6-year-old is something of a mystery.

 

Ronald Pump

Ronald Pump (20/1), who finished second in the Stayers’ Hurdle last year, despite losing a shoe and being struck into, started favourite for the Lismullen Hurdle, but looked beaten whe falling at the final flight. He subsequently finished a highly creditable second, beaten just half a length, behind Honeysuckle in the Grade One Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at  Fairyhouse later the same month. Stepping back up to 3 miles should suit him admirably, although he does have something to find with the principals on official ratings.

 

Stayers Hurdle Betting Tip 2021

Getting down to the nitty-gritty, so to speak, Paisley Park and Thyme Hill look the two on which to concentrate, with a preference for the latter.

Still only a 7-year-old, Thyme Hill finished a close third to Envoi Allen in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper in 2019 and an even closer fourth to Monkfish in the Albert Novices’ Hurdle, despite being denied a clear run in the closing stages.

Described by trainer Philip Hobbs as ‘very exciting’, winning the Stayers’ Hurdle is his main objective this season so, while he is likely to head straight to the Cheltenham Festival, his preparation should, hopefully, be spot on.

WIN BET: Thyme Hill – 10/3 with Paddy Power.

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Stayers Hurdle Trends

Age – 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8.

Price – 5 of the last 12 winners were favourites, 7/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.

Last Run – 8 of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Stayers Hurdle, 8/12 winners had their last run with 54 days.

6/12 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle (Cheltenham) on their last run, 4 of the 6 won, 1 placed.

Previous Course Form – 12/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham.

Previous Distance Form – 9/12 winners had at least 2 runs over 23-25 furlongs, 8/12 winners had at least 2 wins over 23-25 furlongs.

Previous Hurdle Form – 11/12 winners had at least 8 previous runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least 4 previous wins over hurdles.

Rating – 9/12 winners were rated 156 or higher.

Grade 1 Wins – 8/12 winners had at least 1 previous grade 1 win.

Grade 2 Wins – 11/12 winners had at least 1 previous grade 2 win.

Season Form – 11/12 winners had at least 2 runs that season, 10/12 winners had at least 1 win that season.

 

Stayers Hurdle Recent Winners

Year Horse Jockey Trainer
2009 Big Bucks Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2010 Big Bucks Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2011 Big Bucks Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2012 Big Bucks Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2013 Solwhit Paul Carberry Charles Byrnes
2014 More of That Barry Geraghty Jonjo O’Neill
2015 Cole Harden Gavin Sheehan Warren Greatrex
2016 Thistlecrack Tom Scudamore Colin Tizzard
2017 Nichols Canyon Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2018 Penhill Paul Townend Willie Mullins
2019 Paisley Park Aidan Coleman Emma Lavelle
2020 Lisnagar Oscar Adam Wedge Rebecca Curtis

 

Stayers Hurdle 2020 Result

1st – Lisnagar Oscar (50/1)

2nd – Ronald Pump (20/1)

3rd – Bacardys (33/1)

4th – Emitom (10/1)

 

2021 Cheltenham Festival Tips