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Premier League Tips – Predicting the Correct Score of Today’s Four Matches with xG

Harry Kane stay or leave?

xG, or expected goals, is a set of stats that is used to predict the number of goals any given team will score. We can use these stats to try and pick the correct score of each match in the Premier League this weekend, and today there are four games taking place.

The action starts at 12pm with Sheffield United vs Fulham, before Crystal Palace vs Brighton at 2pm and then West Ham vs Tottenham at 4.30pm. The final game of the day is Leicester vs Aston Villa, which takes place at 7.15pm.

The predictions below use the xG stats from Infogol on this weekend’s Sunday Premier League games.

 

Blades to sneak their first win of the season

The first match today sees two teams both on 0 points clash. Sheffield United have had a particularly poor start. However, in the xG table they sit 13th, illustrating that poor finishing has cost them points, particularly against Leeds. They will hope the signing of Rhian Brewster can change this.

For Fulham, they are down in 17th in the xG table, showing that they are not creating enough chances for their main goal threat Mitrovic.

Sheffield United will not get a better chance to get their first three points of the season here and if Brewster starts the match, they look an even better bet.

Prediction: Sheffield United to win 1-0 @ 13/2 with bet365.

 

Eagles & Seagulls to share the spoils

The second game of the day is the M23 derby and the stats point towards a draw here. Palace won their first two matches this season before defeats to table toppers Everton and Chelsea. In that game against Chelsea their xG was just 0.14.

Brighton on the other hand, have had a tough run of fixtures to get started but their xG is 1.86 xGF, 1.46 xGA pg according to the Infogol stats. A good start on the stats at least. Brighton’s last two matches have ended in 3-2 and 4-2 defeats but the xG suggest they were unlucky to concede so many goals in those games. Palace’s poor show at Chelsea needs to be forgotton and so a 1-1 draw might be the bet here.

Prediction: 1-1 draw @ 11/2 with bet365.

 

Spurs & West Ham to put on a thriller

Both of these teams have been involved in some high scoring games of late and the xG stats indicate we should get plenty of goal mouth action at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium today. Spurs racked up a combined xG of 7.2 in their matches against Manchester United and Newcastle, scoring six times at Old Trafford. Gareth Bale might make an appearance in this game and that can only help the Spurs xG.

For West Ham, two massive results has brought back some feel good factor to East London and their xG across those three matches is an impressive 7.04. Against Arsenal, Wolves and Leicester, that is very impressive. The high scoring Premier League matches continued yesterday at Goodison Park, Stamford Bridge and St James’ Park and this one could be another high score.

Prediction: Tottenham to win 4-2 @ 45/1 with Bet Victor.

 

Villa to maintain good start (if Vardy is out)

The key to this match is whether Jamie Vardy is fit to start or not. Leicester have been reliant on him this season, mainly for his penalties. Through their first four matches, they only average 0.98 xG from non-penalty situations. The 3-0 scoreline against West Ham could well have been a fluke but none more than the 7-2 Aston Villa win over Liverpool.

There were three deflected goals for Villa in that game but to their credit, Dean Smith’s side did create six big chances with an xG of 3.36.

Prior to that game against Liverpool, Villa beat Sheffield United 1-0 and Fulham 3-0. They didn’t create a big chance against 10-man Sheffield United but things have been looking better since then, with Ollie Watkins now looking a real danger. Infogol are predicting a narrow win for Leicester here but if Jamie Vardy is missing, I can see the points being shared.

Prediction: 1-1 draw @ 13/2 with Bet Victor.

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