Paul Merson: “If Arsenal Don’t Win This Game, It’s All Over in the Title Race”

Andy Clark

Last Updated on 24/04/2026 by Andy Clark

Merson predictions

Arsenal legend Paul Merson has given his prediction for Arsenal vs Newcastle United — and issued a stark warning to the Gunners ahead of Saturday’s 5:30pm kick-off at the Emirates.

Merson, who won the league title with Arsenal in 1989 in famous circumstances — on goal difference on the final day at Anfield — knows better than most what hangs on this fixture. Manchester City went top on Wednesday. Arsenal are behind solely on goal difference. And with Atlético Madrid in the Champions League semi-final coming up next week, the title race could be decided in the next fortnight.

The former Arsenal and England midfielder’s verdict: Arsenal 2-0 Newcastle United.

Merson’s Full Arsenal vs Newcastle Prediction

In Paul Merson’s own words:

“This is a humongous football match. Newcastle have lost to Barcelona, Sunderland, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth, four losses on the trot. You’d think Arsenal should win this, but Newcastle often do well in this fixture!

Arsenal have four big fixtures coming up over the next two weeks. After this game, they face Atletico Madrid away from home in the Champions League semi-final and host Fulham next weekend before the return leg against Diego Simeone’s team.

That is a tricky run. And let’s be honest, Arsenal have been losing a bit of control in recent weeks. They have started to wobble at the wrong time. That Bournemouth defeat hurt them the most. If they had at least got a draw in that game, they could have been a point ahead of City now.

Like I said before, City winning by just the odd goal against Burnley puts the ball back in Arsenal’s court. The reason why I say Arsenal have an advantage is because they play twice before City’s next game away at Everton.

So they could be six points ahead before Guardiola’s men take the trip to Merseyside, which will be a tough game for City. If Arsenal win their next two games, they will put all the pressure back on their rivals.

I haven’t seen enough from City to suggest they will not let in goals during games. Even against Burnley, they conceded big chances. Arsenal should just win the next two games at all costs, and if they do, I can sense them back to being in control in the title race.

If Arsenal don’t win this game, it’s all over in the title race. They are literally in the last chance saloon now. City are above Arsenal only because they’ve scored more goals. So there is still a possibility of Arsenal winning every game and still losing the title due to City scoring more than them!

Imagine losing a league title simply because you scored fewer goals? That would hurt. Well, I won the league with Arsenal in 1989 because we scored more goals than Liverpool, and I can tell you it’s only a good feeling if you win!

This has always been an entertaining fixture in the last few seasons. Even though I’m backing Arsenal to win, I don’t think the result is a foregone conclusion here.”

Paul Merson’s prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Newcastle United

The Title Race Context

Merson’s warning carries real weight. This is where the Premier League title will be won or lost.

Current standings (after Matchday 33):

#ClubPLWDLGDPts
1Manchester City332175+4570
2Arsenal332175+4270

City went top after their 1-0 win at Burnley on Wednesday, leapfrogging Arsenal on goals scored alone after both sides remain level on 70 points. Arsenal’s next two games are at home to Newcastle (Saturday) and at home to Fulham. City’s next league game is away at Everton.

If Arsenal win Saturday and their following home league game, they could be six points clear before City play again. If they drop points on Saturday, as Merson says, the title race is effectively over.

Arsenal’s Four-Match Run That Will Define Their Season

Merson identified Arsenal’s next fortnight as the pivotal stretch:

DateCompetitionFixture
Sat 25 AprPremier LeagueArsenal vs Newcastle — 5:30pm, Sky Sports
Wed 29 AprChampions League SFAtlético Madrid vs Arsenal — first leg
Sat 2 MayPremier LeagueArsenal vs Fulham
Tue 5 MayChampions League SFArsenal vs Atlético Madrid — second leg

Win on Saturday and Arsenal controls the title race. Lose, and they hand City the initiative. The pressure of the Champions League semi-final against Diego Simeone’s Atlético runs parallel to the run-in.

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More Premier League Predictions This Weekend

Arsenal vs Newcastle kicks off at 5:30pm BST on Saturday 25th April 2026 at the Emirates Stadium, live on Sky Sports. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org.