Last Updated on 17/02/2026 by Andy Clark
I’m a dedicated football betting blogger with a passion for helping fans turn insights into informed wagers. With years of experience analysing form, stats and trends across the world’s top leagues, I write clear match previews and expert betting tips that go beyond the obvious. Whether it’s Champions League action or domestic league fixtures, my content aims to give readers an edge — blending data-driven analysis with a love of the beautiful game.
Benfica vs Real Madrid Match Preview – Champions League Play-off
Benfica and Real Madrid meet again in Lisbon just weeks after one of the most dramatic games of the Champions League group phase. That night at the Estádio da Luz ended in a stunning 4–2 Benfica win, a result that sent the Portuguese side through and forced Real Madrid into this playoff tie.
There is no shortage of confidence in the home camp. Benfica are unbeaten in their last five matches and have already shown they can hurt Real Madrid by attacking quickly and committing bodies forward. In that previous meeting, they created eight big chances and consistently exposed space, especially when Madrid were caught in transition. Under José Mourinho, Benfica have been difficult to beat domestically and remain a dangerous proposition at home.
Real Madrid arrive in Lisbon off the back of a strong 4–1 win over Real Sociedad, but their Champions League form has been far less convincing. Despite scoring 21 goals in the league phase, defensive issues have followed them throughout the campaign, conceding 12 times and picking up suspensions that now weaken them further. With Jude Bellingham injured and both Raúl Asencio and Rodrygo suspended, this is far from a full-strength Madrid side.
Everything points towards another open first leg. Benfica will believe they can repeat what worked last time, while Real Madrid know they must manage the game better if they want to take control of the tie.
Benfica vs Real Madrid Predicted Line-ups
Benfica: Trubin; Dedic, Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl; Barreiro, Barrenechea; Prestianni, Sudakov, Schjelderup; Pavlidis
Real Madrid: Courtois; Carreras, Huijsen, Rudiger, Alexander-Arnold; Camavinga, Tchouameni, Valverde; Vinicius, Mbappe, Guler
Benfica vs Real Madrid Best Bet
Kylian Mbappé to score anytime – 5/6 with StarSports
Real Madrid’s biggest weapon is clear. Kylian Mbappé has scored 13 goals in eight Champions League matches this season, massively outperforming his expected goals and finishing chances at an elite level. Even in games where Madrid struggle for control, Mbappé remains capable of changing the match in one moment.
Given Benfica’s willingness to play on the front foot and Madrid’s reliance on quick, decisive attacks, backing Mbappé to find the net makes plenty of sense.
Benfica vs Real Madrid Score Prediction
Benfica 2–2 Real Madrid – 10/1 with Ladbrokes.
Benfica have shown they can trouble Madrid at home, while Real Madrid’s attacking quality should still shine through despite their absentees. A high-scoring draw feels like a realistic outcome, leaving everything finely balanced heading into the second leg at the Bernabéu.
Benfica vs Real Madrid Betting Stats
- Benfica vs Real Madrid head-to-head: Benfica have more wins historically (3 vs 1).
- Last meeting (Jan 28): Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid in the Champions League.
- Benfica’s recent form (last 6): 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, scoring ~2.0 goals/game.
- Real Madrid’s recent form (last 6): 5 wins, 1 loss, scoring ~3.0 goals/game.
- Over 2.5 goals in recent Benfica matches: 4/6 times.
- Over 2.5 goals in recent Real Madrid matches: 6/6 times.
- Both teams to score (BTTS) occurred in 3/6 Benfica games this season.
- Real Madrid’s average goals per match this season: ~2.28 goals/game.
- BTTS is projected close to 60 %+ probability for this fixture.
- Probability for Over 1.5 goals ~80 %+ according to projections.
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- Click this link to Ladbrokes’ sign-up offer
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I’m a dedicated football betting blogger with a passion for helping fans turn insights into informed wagers. With years of experience analysing form, stats and trends across the world’s top leagues, I write clear match previews and expert betting tips that go beyond the obvious. Whether it’s Champions League action or domestic league fixtures, my content aims to give readers an edge — blending data-driven analysis with a love of the beautiful game.
