Leeds United are 12/5 to beat Chelsea in Sunday’s FA Cup semi-final at Wembley — and 11/8 to qualify with StarSports, which includes winning on penalties. Chelsea go into this without a permanent manager, with Cole Palmer a fitness doubt, Caicedo suspended and a dressing room in chaos. Leeds are unbeaten in both Premier League meetings with Chelsea this season.
Calum McFarlane was appointed Chelsea caretaker manager on Wednesday night following the sacking of Liam Rosenior. This is the third game of his managerial career. The first was against Pep Guardiola. The second was a London derby. The third is an FA Cup semi-final at Wembley against a Leeds side who have nothing to lose and 39 years of waiting behind them. The conditions for an upset are in place.
The smart commercial bet here is Leeds to qualify at 11/8 with StarSports — which means your bet wins whether Leeds win in normal time, extra time or on penalties. New StarSports customers who bet £10 receive free bets in return. Or if you believe Leeds win in normal time, bet365 are offering 12/5 for the outright Leeds win.
Join StarSports – Leeds to Qualify at 11/8 →
The Two Bets — Which Is Right for You?
| Selection | Odds | Bookmaker | When it wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds to qualify | 11/8 | StarSports | Leeds win in normal time, extra time OR penalties |
| Leeds to win | 12/5 | bet365 | Leeds win in normal time only |
Leeds to qualify at 11/8 is the value bet. FA Cup semi-finals regularly go to extra time and penalties — backing Leeds to qualify rather than win removes the risk of a penalty shootout going against you while still collecting if Leeds win. A £10 bet at 11/8 returns £23.75 total.
Leeds to win at 12/5 is the higher-odds play. A £10 bet at 12/5 returns £34 total — but only if Leeds win in 90 minutes.
StarSports Sign-Up Offer — New Customers
New StarSports customers receive free bets when they place a qualifying bet on Leeds to qualify. The offer is available via our link — see full details below.
Claim the StarSports Offer – Leeds to Qualify at 11/8 → | Full StarSports Offer Details →
The Case for Leeds
Chelsea Are in Chaos
This is the most important factor. Chelsea sacked Liam Rosenior on Wednesday night after five consecutive Premier League defeats, the last of which was a damning 3-0 loss at Brighton where — in the words of multiple reporters present — the Chelsea players appeared to have stopped trying. Gary Neville described it as “players downed tools.”
Calum McFarlane is now in caretaker charge. He is 30 years old. He has managed two games as a senior manager in his career. He now takes a demoralised, injury-hit Chelsea squad to Wembley for an FA Cup semi-final. The psychological disadvantage here is significant.
Before Sunday, Leeds have a real chance of winning.
Chelsea’s Injury and Suspension List
The situation is significant for a side already low on confidence:
- Cole Palmer — fitness doubt (hamstring). Chelsea’s best player, directly involved in 20 Premier League goals this season.
- Moises Caicedo — suspended. Their best midfielder.
- Robert Sanchez — injured. First-choice goalkeeper unavailable.
- Marc Cucurella — injured.
- Estêvão — injured.
- Jamie Gittens — injured.
A Chelsea side without Palmer, Caicedo and Sanchez simultaneously is a very different proposition to the team that scored 20 FA Cup goals under Rosenior.
Leeds Are Unbeaten Against Chelsea This Season
Leeds United are unbeaten in both Premier League matches against Chelsea this season — winning one and drawing one. The teams have already played twice this season, with Leeds not losing either. Familiarity breeds confidence. Daniel Farke’s side knows exactly how to play against this Chelsea team.
The Motivation Gap
Leeds are in their first FA Cup semi-final since 1986-87 — 39 years. The last Leeds player to score at Wembley was Eric Cantona, completing a hat-trick in the 1992 Charity Shield. Every Leeds player on Sunday will be motivated by history, by their supporters, and by the knowledge that nothing like this comes around twice in a generation.
Daniel Farke described his squad’s mindset as “nothing to lose.” They drew 2-2 at Bournemouth in midweek with a 97th-minute equaliser from Sean Longstaff — a team that finds a way, in the last minute, even when exhausted from a midweek away trip, is a team in the right frame of mind for a cup semi-final.
The Wembley Record — An Honest Caveat
Leeds have lost their last three Wembley appearances without scoring. That is the honest counter-argument, and it is worth acknowledging. Wembley has not been kind to this Leeds side historically. The 2024 Championship play-off final — a 1-0 defeat to Southampton — is recent and painful.
But context matters. That was a must-win game with enormous financial consequences. Sunday’s semi-final, while huge, carries the freedom that comes from being the underdog. And Chelsea’s current state of disarray is unlike anything Leeds have faced at Wembley before.
Leeds United to Qualify — Why 11/8 Is the Smart Bet
FA Cup semi-finals are famously tight affairs. They go to extra time more often than league games — the pressure of Wembley and the magnitude of a final place regularly produces 90 minutes of caution and a prolonged battle.
Backing Leeds to qualify at 11/8 means your bet wins regardless of how they get through. If it goes to extra time and the decisive moment comes in the 118th minute, your bet wins. If it goes to penalties and Karl Darlow saves the crucial spot-kick, your bet wins.
Chelsea have progressed from nine of their last eleven FA Cup semi-finals — they know how to navigate these occasions. But they have never done it with a caretaker manager in his third game, without their best player, their best midfielder and their first-choice goalkeeper, against a Leeds side who are unbeaten against them this season.
At 11/8, Leeds to qualify is the best value bet of the FA Cup weekend.
Back Leeds to Qualify at 11/8 with StarSports →
Match Details
| Fixture | Chelsea vs Leeds United |
| Competition | FA Cup Semi-Final |
| Date | Sunday 26th April 2026 |
| Kick-off | 3pm BST |
| Venue | Wembley Stadium |
| TV | TNT Sports 1 and HBO Max |
| Chelsea manager | Calum McFarlane (caretaker — 3rd game in charge) |
| Leeds manager | Daniel Farke |
Key Stats
- Leeds are unbeaten in both PL meetings with Chelsea this season (W1 D1)
- Chelsea have scored 20 FA Cup goals this season — the most by any side under a single manager in this stage of English football since 1970-71
- Leeds’ last Wembley goal: Eric Cantona, 1992 Charity Shield
- Leeds’ first FA Cup semi-final since 1986-87
- Chelsea without: Palmer (doubt), Caicedo (suspended), Sanchez (injured), Cucurella (injured)
- Chelsea manager: 30-year-old caretaker, third game in charge
FAQs
What does “Leeds to qualify” mean? A qualify bet means your selection wins the tie by any method — normal time, extra time or a penalty shootout. If the match finishes level after 90 minutes and Leeds win in extra time or on penalties, your bet wins. It is a safer version of backing Leeds to win outright and particularly relevant for cup semi-finals that regularly go the distance.
What is the best odds for Leeds to qualify? 11/8 with StarSports — the best available price for Leeds to progress to the FA Cup Final by any method.
What is the best odds for Leeds to win in normal time? 12/5 with bet365 — the best available outright win price.
Is Cole Palmer playing for Chelsea? Palmer is a fitness doubt with a hamstring issue. His availability for Sunday is uncertain. Without him Chelsea lose their most creative player and direct goal threat.
When is the FA Cup Final? Saturday 16th May 2026, 3pm BST, Wembley Stadium. Live on TNT Sports, BBC One, BBC iPlayer and HBO Max.
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Andy is the founder, owner and editor of thatsagoal.com, with over 20 years of experience in betting on sports. He has a keen eye for stats, particularly when looking at players to be carded, and these form a large part of the bet builder tips you see on the site. As well as creating daily football tips, Andy also keeps thatsagoal updated with all the best bookmaker promotions and offers for our readers.