Last Updated on 10/04/2026 by Andy Clark
The Grand National takes place this Saturday 11th April at Aintree, with a 4:00pm off time. Below is our tipster’s in-depth analysis of the race and their selection for the first three home – a main selection at 12/1, a main danger at 20/1 and a long shot at 50/1.
If you are looking to back all three in a combination bet, a tricast covering the predicted 1-2-3 is worth considering. See our Grand National free bets page for the best bookmaker offers available this week, and our Grand National tips hub for full race coverage.
Grand National 2026 Free Bets
Back today’s Grand National selections with a sign-up offer from one of the bookmakers below. Best Odds Guaranteed is available on the Grand National at all major bookmakers – take a price now and if the SP is bigger at 4:00pm on Saturday, you get paid at the bigger odds. See our Best Odds Guaranteed guide for the full list of BOG bookmakers.
Grand National 2026 – Race Details
Race: Randox Grand National Chase (Grade 3 Handicap Chase)
Date: Saturday 11th April 2026
Time: 4:00pm
Track: Aintree
Distance: 4 miles 2½ furlongs Fences: 30
Grand National 2026 Trends Analysis
The Grand National is no longer the race it once was. Over the past decade, well-intentioned efforts to improve safety have fundamentally altered its character, and with that, the profile of a typical winner. Once upon a time, this was the ultimate jumping test, where accuracy and bravery at the fences were paramount; now, there is a growing sense that elite jumping ability is no longer as strongly rewarded. The fences, while still visually imposing, are far less punishing than in years gone by, allowing horses to get away with imperfect technique in a way that would previously have ended their chances.
That shift is reflected in some trends that we will now analyse:
Younger horses are increasingly to the fore, with the average winning age since 2019 sitting at just under 8.8, compared to roughly 10.5 years old across the two decades prior. This shows a stark contrast to the long-held belief that anything aged seven or younger could be safely dismissed.
Experience, too, appears less crucial than it once was, with 4 of the last 7 winners (2019–2025) succeeding on their first attempt, whereas historically the race strongly favoured those having their second or third run over the fences.
Meanwhile, the handicap has compressed to such an extent that weight is arguably less significant than ever, with the spread between top and bottom. As a result, class is coming to the fore: the average official rating of winners in the last 6 renewals sits around 150, noticeably higher than the mid-140s that characterised winners in the previous 20. In fact, you will likely need a rating of 146ish to even get into the race this year.
Grand National Main Selection: Jagwar (12/1)
With 3 out of the first 4 in the current betting and up to 9 runners in total (over 25% of the field), if you back the first JP McManus runner home, there’s a fair chance you will end up on the winner. I massively fear the 2024 winner (and last year’s runner-up), I am Maximus, who has looked as good as ever on his 2 prep runs at Leopardstown and is likely to have the genius Paul Townend in the saddle. However, at ten years old and having his 3rd start in the race, stats are arguably against him for the modern race. Very reluctantly, I am going to side against him with another JP horse at the head of the market.
If only there was a 7 yo, having his first start in the race, who is likely to be well suited by a less testing examination of jumping. Well then, look no further than JAGWAR (12/1), who has, on his last 2 starts, found himself further back than ideal due to poor jumping and yet still managed to finish 2nd in 2 of the most competitive handicaps of the year.
He possesses a blend of pace and stamina that looks tailor-made for the modern National. He showed enough speed to land a competitive 2½-mile handicap at last year’s Festival, yet his two runs this season have shaped as though a much stiffer stamina test will unlock further improvement. That impression was reinforced by his effort in the Ultima Handicap Chase this year, a race that has a solid record of producing horses who go on to feature prominently in the shake-up at Aintree. From the saddle, the booking of Mark Walsh looks a significant upgrade, bringing greater big-race experience and tactical assurance compared to Jonjo O’Neill Jr. The partnership certainly seemed to work in the aforementioned Ultima.
Put it all together, and Jagwar makes plenty of appeal as a horse whose perceived weaknesses may be mitigated by the nature of the modern race, while his strengths — cruising speed, stamina potential, and class — could see him outrun his price and play a major role. If he is the Graded horse that so many people seem to think he is, he will have to be going close here. He still looks like a horse on an upward curve rather than one who has reached his ceiling, and that is exactly the type that has been thriving in recent renewals.
Grand National Main Danger: Monty’s Star (20/1)
A slightly different type to the typical recent winner of the Grand National, but one who still makes plenty of appeal, is Henry De Bromhead’s MONTY’S STAR (20/1). I have always felt that he shaped like a horse crying out for a test of this nature, and it’s easy to argue that this extreme trip could unlock improvement that has not yet been seen over shorter distances.
His trainer has an excellent record in the race and, crucially, knows exactly what type is required. He famously saddled the first two home in 2021 with Minella Times and Balko Des Flos and returned to finish 3rd in 2023 with Minella Indo in the same colours as the selection. And the comparison for me doesn’t stop there. Like Monty’s Star, he had previously been campaigned at the very highest level before dropping into handicap company. Even though Minella Indo had won a Gold Cup, by that season, aged 11, Henry had clearly realised he wasn’t up to winning a Gold Cup and campaigned him with the National in mind.
Monty’s Star may not have reached those same heights, but he has followed a similar path in being tested in elite company before being rerouted. In addition, at just 9, that decision has been taken while arguably still in the prime and possibly better handicapped. It is highly plausible that this race has been the long-term target, and if that is the case, his run at the Dublin Racing Festival — when market signals suggested he would come on for the outing — can be viewed as highly encouraging. He shaped far better than a horse lacking peak fitness, looking like a winner 2 out before fading to the minor places.
His novice chase form reads well in this context, having mixed it with top-class operators such as Fact To File. This level of class is certainly needed to win the modern National.
Ultimately, this comes down to trust — trust in a trainer with a proven blueprint for the race, and trust that this step up in trip will bring about the improvement required. If Henry de Bromhead has indeed trained him with this contest in mind, Monty’s Star could easily outrun market expectations and emerge as a major player.
Grand National Long Shot: Lecky Watson (50/1)
Speaking of high-class novice Cheltenham form, how about last year’s Brown Advisory winner? Similar to Monty’s Star, LECKY WATSON (50/1) was tried at the highest level early in the year but ultimately proved not to be Gold Cup class. However, that has left him on an attractive mark of just 155, and he is another who has always looked to me as a horse for whom a marathon trip would unlock even further potential.
We saw last year that Willie Mullins can get the job done with one that is far from a stable first choice, and he has taken the classic Mullins prep route of the Bobby Jo chase. That run can largely be discounted as he was carrying a lot more weight than any of his rivals. Don’t despair if you don’t see Danny Mullins not booked either. This horse will be partnered by regular rider Sean O’Keefe, and there won’t be a more well-practised combination in the field.
Grand National 2026 Predicted 1-2-3
| Position | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Jagwar | 12/1 |
| 2nd | Monty’s Star | 20/1 |
| 3rd | Lecky Watson | 50/1 |
A tricast covering all six combinations of these three horses, or betting on the 2nd and 3rd each-way, are good ways to play this type of bet.
More Grand National Content
- Grand National Tips Hub
- Grand National Free Bets
- Grand National Weights
- Grey Horses in the Grand National
- Female Jockeys in the Grand National
- Best Odds Guaranteed Guide
- Non-Runner No Bet Explained
- Each-Way Betting Explained
- Lucky 15 Tips
- ITV Racing Tips
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Ciaran Murphy is a seasoned horse racing analyst with a keen eye on the Cheltenham Festival ante-post markets. A passionate follower of National Hunt racing, he has spent years studying trends, form, and betting strategies to uncover value in novice hurdles, chases, and Championship races. Known for combining insightful analysis with practical betting advice, Ciaran provides readers with expert previews, tips, and market commentary to give them an edge ahead of every Cheltenham Festival.