Saturday Accumulator Tip: 5 Teams to Win From our Predictions Model

Five teams to win, picked across three divisions on three things: what the market makes them, what their last 6 matches look like, and what they score and concede.

This is a most-likely-to-win accumulator rather than a value one, and the difference matters. Every leg here is a favourite. We are not claiming the prices are wrong — we are saying these are the five sides most likely to be winning at five o’clock, and stacking them into one bet.

Where our model and the market disagree on a result, we follow the market. A 20-match model reads player and team markets well and match results badly, because it counts what has happened rather than seeing squad quality. It cannot tell that Manchester City’s bench is worth more than Coventry’s first XI. So on results we publish the price, and we use our own numbers to sort between the favourites rather than to argue with them.

What our figures do decide is the order. Two sides priced within a few points of each other can look very different once you check the form and the goals, and that is where the last two legs below come from.

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Why These Five

Man City vs Coventry — the only one where everything agrees

79.7% on the market, and nothing in the data argues with it. Manchester City have won 8 of their last 10 league matches and scored 23 goals in them, at 2.30 a game against 0.90 conceded.

Coventry have played two Premier League matches and lost both without scoring — 0-1 at home to Hull and 0-3 at Arsenal. Their 1.80 goals a game comes from 18 Championship fixtures and does not describe this level.

City hold 61.45% of the ball and take 39.20 touches in the box a game against Coventry’s 25.65. This is the anchor leg.

West Ham vs Derby — the price is shorter than the form

68.7% is the second shortest price of the day and the one leg here we would question. West Ham’s last 6 read W D L D W L — two wins — and they score 1.50 a game against 1.40 conceded.

The market has seen the same numbers and still makes them 2/5, which usually means it is pricing squad quality rather than recent results. Derby are 12.5%, and a side priced that short at home wins far more often than it does not.

Included on price rather than on form, and named as such.

Brentford vs Sunderland — the heaviest underdog of the day

Sunderland are 15.8% on the market, the shortest anyone is priced against anywhere on Saturday’s card, and Brentford are at home.

Our own model is less convinced than the price — it gives Brentford 46% against the market’s 62.4% — and that gap is the reason this leg sits third rather than second. A 20-match model cannot see what a bookmaker sees about a squad, and on this fixture we are following the price.

Huddersfield vs Notts County — the best form on either card

4 wins in their last 6, which is the strongest run of any side playing on Saturday, at 1.60 goals a game against 1.35 conceded.

At 57.2% they are a shorter price than several Championship favourites, and the form supports it in a way that West Ham’s does not.

One caution worth stating. Notts County’s last 20 include 16 League Two fixtures, so their figures flatter them at this level — which helps this leg rather than hurting it, but it means the fixture is less predictable than a settled one.

Luton vs Leyton Orient — 4 wins in 6 and 1.90 a game

Luton have won 4 of their last 6 and score 1.90 goals a match, the highest figure of any side in this accumulator outside Manchester City.

At 56.0% they are the longest price here, which is what makes them the leg most likely to cost you the bet. Leyton Orient have scored in 14 of their last 20, so this is not a fixture where Luton keep them out — it is one where Luton are expected to score more.

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The One We Left Out

Southampton at Lincoln, 51.4%. They have the best goal profile of any side playing on Saturday — 2.25 scored and 0.90 conceded a game — and on the numbers alone they would be in this accumulator ahead of West Ham.

They are not here because it is an away trip to a promoted side in a 12:30 kick-off, and Lincoln have 16 League One matches in their last 20, which makes them hard to read. If you want a sixth leg or a swap, that is the one we would make.

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The Arithmetic

Five legs at these prices come to just over 6/1, and the block above carries the exact figure. A £10 stake returns about £75.

All five landing is roughly an 11% shot on the market’s own numbers. That is the honest way to look at an accumulator: the individual legs are all likelier than not, and the combination is not.

An accumulator multiplies the bookmaker’s margin as well as the returns. Each of these markets carries around 5% in the bookmaker’s favour, and across five legs that compounds to roughly 25%. Five separate singles cost you far less in margin than one five-fold, and win far more often.

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How We Pick Them

The price comes first on match results, and we say so rather than pretending otherwise. Our model reads how often a thing has happened across 20 matches, which works well for corners, cards, shots and goals at both ends, and works badly for who wins — because a result depends on squad quality that a count of past games cannot see.

Our figures sort the shortlist. Once the market has told us who the favourites are, the last 6 matches and the goals scored and conceded decide which of them we trust. That is why Huddersfield and Luton are in ahead of longer-standing names, and why West Ham are in with a caveat attached.

We name the leg we would drop. Every accumulator has a weakest link, and a page that pretends otherwise is not worth reading. Here it is Luton, at the longest price of the five.

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More Betting Tips

• Accumulator tips from our stats model
• Championship best bets for every round
• Premier League betting tips all season
• Both teams to score tips this weekend

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