Our free Championship tips cover every EFL matchday – best bets, bet builders and accumulators for the biggest second-tier fixtures, each backed by the stats. Every selection on this page carries two numbers: our probability and the market’s. That comparison is the whole method, and it is the only reason to read us rather than anyone else.
Every betting price is a probability in disguise. A shot at 8/11 is the bookmaker saying 58%; a goalscorer at 10/3 is the bookmaker saying 23%. We work out the same number independently and publish both, so you can see exactly where we disagree with the market and by how much.
Our figure comes from the player’s own record rather than from opinion. For a shots or goalscorer line we count how often he has cleared it in his last six matches and check the rate per 90 minutes behind it. For a team market we use both sides’ last 20 matches. Where a rate comes off a small sample we pull it towards a positional baseline before quoting it, because four goals in 266 minutes is a hot streak rather than a rate.
A selection needs three things to appear here. A 40% chance or better on our figure, because a large edge on a 20% shot is a lottery ticket rather than a bet. A price of 4/6 or longer, so the return justifies the risk. And a gap to the market of no more than 20 points — the bookmaker is usually right, and when our number sits far above theirs the likelier explanation is that ours is wrong.
That last rule is why some fixtures appear here with nothing. We publish the blanks too, in the section below the selections, along with the markets we considered and rejected. A round where four of 11 fixtures produce no bet is a result rather than an oversight.
Prices are checked on the morning of the round and change. Where no referee has been appointed we use a league-average official of 4.20 cards a game, the mean across the 25 referees we have measured, and say so on the selection.
Championship Betting Tips for Each Match
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Best Bets, Bet Builders And The Props Tool Are For Members
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- Five Best Bets on every preview
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- Prop pointers from our stats model
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