Our free Nations League tips cover every matchday of the UEFA Nations League — best bets, bet builders and accumulators for the standout international fixtures, each backed by our stats model. Every selection on this page carries two numbers: our probability and the market’s. That comparison is the whole method, and it is the only reason to read us rather than anyone else.
Every betting price is a probability in disguise. A team at 8/11 is the bookmaker saying 58%; a goalscorer at 10/3 is the bookmaker saying 23%. We work out the same number independently and publish both, so you can see exactly where we disagree with the market and by how much.
Our figure comes from each side’s own record rather than from opinion, using both teams’ recent international and club form. Where a rate comes off a small sample we pull it towards a baseline before quoting it, because international football — with its short, bursty schedule and rotated squads — throws up more noise than a domestic league. A selection only appears here when our number clears our value threshold, the price justifies the risk, and the gap to the market isn’t so large that the likelier explanation is that our number is wrong.
Today’s Nations League Betting Tips
Our latest Nations League predictions and best bets are shown above, updated for every matchday during the international windows. Each fixture preview includes our selection, the two probabilities behind it, and the stats that produced them — or an honest blank where the model finds no value.
Cyprus vs Latvia Tips
- A. Černomordijs 1+ Foul CommittedTBCbet365
Antonijs Černomordijs has committed a foul in 9 of his last 10 for Latvia, at 1.52 per 90 across 1,187 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.
Cyprus hold 49.75% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.
- I. Pittas 3+ ShotsTBCbet365
Ioannis Pittas has had 3 or more shots in 9 of his last 10 for Cyprus, at 3.63 per 90 across 966 minutes, and he averages 80 minutes a game when he plays.
Cyprus take 12.69 shots a game and hit 4.44 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.
- Cyprus to Win4/7Add to slip
Cyprus have won 6 of their last 20, drawing 5, and at home they have scored 1.67 a game and conceded 1.56 across 9 matches.
Latvia average 0.55 scored and 1.30 conceded. The venue splits project 1.45 against 0.96, which puts Cyprus at about 54% to win, against 27% for the draw.
- Correct Score 1-05/1Add to slip
On the venue splits this projects Cyprus 1.45 against Latvia 0.96, and 1-0 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 12.7%.
Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Cyprus, which is where the board has the match too.
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland Tips
- M. Cash 1+ Shot on Target6/4Add to slip
Matty Cash has had a shot on target in 6 of his last 10 for Poland, at 1.11 per 90 across 895 minutes, and he averages 75 minutes a game when he plays.
Poland take 16.53 shots a game and hit 6.29 on target. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 40% implied by 6/4.
- K. Alajbegović 1+ Shot on Target11/10Add to slip
Kerim Alajbegović has had a shot on target in 6 of his last 10 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, at 1.19 per 90 across 905 minutes, and he averages 65 minutes a game when he plays.
Bosnia & Herzegovina take 13.65 shots a game and hit 4.59 on target. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 48% implied by 11/10.
- Over 8.5 Corners5/6Add to slip
Bosnia & Herzegovina win 4.24 corners a game and Poland 5.59, with 1.76 and 2.76 of those in the first half.
That leaves about 10 in the match, a 65% chance of 9 or more against the 55% implied by 5/6.
- E. Džeko to be Carded4/1Add to slip
Edin Džeko has been booked in 3 of his last 10 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, at 0.3 per 90 across 912 minutes, and he averages 76 minutes a game when he plays.
Bosnia & Herzegovina pick up 2.29 cards a game and there are 3.94 in their matches. That is about 30% on his own record, against the 20% implied by 4/1.
- N. Katić to be Carded3/1Add to slip
Nikola Katić has been booked in 3 of his last 10 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, at 0.3 per 90 across 1,197 minutes, and he averages 86 minutes a game when he plays.
Bosnia & Herzegovina pick up 2.29 cards a game and there are 3.94 in their matches. That is about 30% on his own record, against the 25% implied by 3/1.
- I. Šunjić 1+ Foul CommittedTBCbet365
Ivan Šunjić has committed a foul in 9 of his last 10 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, at 2.9 per 90 across 839 minutes, and he averages 65 minutes a game when he plays.
Poland hold 49.76% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.
- R. Lewandowski 1+ ShotsTBCbet365
Robert Lewandowski has had a shot in 7 of his last 10 for Poland, at 3.31 per 90 across 896 minutes, and he averages 69 minutes a game when he plays.
Poland take 16.53 shots a game and hit 6.29 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.
- Both Teams to Score4/6Add to slip
Both teams have scored in 15 of Bosnia & Herzegovina's last 20 matches and 12 of Poland's. Bosnia & Herzegovina concede 1.20 a game and Poland 1.40.
On the venue splits the projection is 1.80 against 1.34, which puts both teams scoring at about 65%.
- Correct Score 1-217/2Add to slip
On the venue splits this projects Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.80 against Poland 1.34, and 1-2 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 7.3%.
Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Poland, which is where the board has the match too.
- Over 2.5 Goals17/20Add to slip
Bosnia & Herzegovina have gone past 2.5 goals in 50% of their last 20 matches and Poland in 55%, with 85% and 85% going past 1.5.
Bosnia & Herzegovina average 1.70 scored and 1.20 conceded, Poland 1.75 and 1.40. On the venue splits that projects 1.80 against 1.34, about 3.1 goals in the match and 57% for over 2.5.
France vs Belgium Tips
- A. Rabiot 2+ Foul Committed10/11Add to slip
Adrien Rabiot has committed 2 or more fouls in 6 of his last 10 for France, at 1.63 per 90 across 1,101 minutes, and he averages 79 minutes a game when he plays.
Belgium hold 56.25% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 52% implied by 10/11.
- T. Castagne 2+ Foul Committed7/4Add to slip
Timothy Castagne has committed 2 or more fouls in 4 of his last 10 for Belgium, at 1.3 per 90 across 1,316 minutes, and he averages 73 minutes a game when he plays.
France hold 61.8% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 36% implied by 7/4.
- K. Mbappé 3+ ShotsTBCbet365
Kylian Mbappé has had 3 or more shots in 9 of his last 10 for France, at 5.77 per 90 across 1,233 minutes, and he averages 77 minutes a game when he plays.
France take 18.25 shots a game and hit 6.85 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.
- K. De Bruyne 1+ Shot on TargetTBCbet365
Kevin De Bruyne has had a shot on target in 7 of his last 10 for Belgium, at 1.6 per 90 across 1,292 minutes, and he averages 76 minutes a game when he plays.
Belgium take 19.1 shots a game and hit 7.1 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.
- Both Teams to Score8/13Add to slip
Both teams have scored in 11 of France's last 20 matches and 10 of Belgium's. France concede 1.00 a game and Belgium 0.85.
On the venue splits the projection is 1.56 against 1.82, which puts both teams scoring at about 59%.
- Correct Score 2-115/2Add to slip
On the venue splits this projects France 1.56 against Belgium 1.82, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.0%.
Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs France, which is where the board has the match too.
- Over 2.5 Goals1/2Add to slip
France have gone past 2.5 goals in 70% of their last 20 matches and Belgium in 60%, with 85% and 85% going past 1.5.
France average 2.30 scored and 1.00 conceded, Belgium 2.95 and 0.85. On the venue splits that projects 1.56 against 1.82, about 3.4 goals in the match and 65% for over 2.5.
Italy vs Türkiye Tips
- M. Kean Anytime GoalscorerEvensAdd to slip
Moise Kean has scored in 6 of his last 10 for Italy, at 0.99 per 90 across 730 minutes, and he averages 66 minutes a game when he plays.
Italy score 2.05 a game. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 50% implied by Evens.
- Over 9.5 Corners4/5Add to slip
Italy win 5.85 corners a game and Türkiye 6.65, with 3.05 and 2.9 of those in the first half.
That leaves about 12 in the match, a 71% chance of 10 or more against the 56% implied by 4/5.
- A. Bastoni to be Carded10/3Add to slip
Alessandro Bastoni has been booked in 5 of his last 10 for Italy, at 0.5 per 90 across 1,270 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.
Italy pick up 1.7 cards a game and there are 3.65 in their matches. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 23% implied by 10/3.
- K. Aktürkoğlu to be Carded4/1Add to slip
Kerem Aktürkoğlu has been booked in 3 of his last 10 for Türkiye, at 0.31 per 90 across 1,162 minutes, and he averages 68 minutes a game when he plays.
Türkiye pick up 1.9 cards a game and there are 3.6 in their matches. That is about 30% on his own record, against the 20% implied by 4/1.
- A. Güler 2+ ShotsTBCbet365
Arda Güler has had 2 or more shots in 8 of his last 10 for Türkiye, at 3.23 per 90 across 1,447 minutes, and he averages 80 minutes a game when he plays.
Türkiye take 15.4 shots a game and hit 4.75 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.
- Italy to Win2/5Add to slip
Italy have won 12 of their last 20, drawing 3, and at home they have scored 2.11 a game and conceded 1.33 across 9 matches.
Türkiye average 1.85 scored and 1.45 conceded. The venue splits project 1.86 against 1.56, which puts Italy at about 56% to win, against 22% for the draw.
- Correct Score 2-115/2Add to slip
On the venue splits this projects Italy 1.86 against Türkiye 1.56, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.6%.
Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Italy, which is where the board has the match too.
- Over 2.5 Goals8/15Add to slip
Italy have gone past 2.5 goals in 55% of their last 20 matches and Türkiye in 65%, with 85% and 75% going past 1.5.
Italy average 2.05 scored and 1.30 conceded, Türkiye 1.85 and 1.45. On the venue splits that projects 1.86 against 1.56, about 3.4 goals in the match and 63% for over 2.5.
Montenegro vs Armenia Tips
- N. Krstović 1+ Shot on TargetTBCbet365
Nikola Krstović has had a shot on target in 9 of his last 10 for Montenegro, at 1.55 per 90 across 1,221 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.
Montenegro take 14.07 shots a game and hit 4.5 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.
- S. Jovetić 1+ ShotsTBCbet365
Stevan Jovetić has had a shot in 9 of his last 10 for Montenegro, at 2.87 per 90 across 753 minutes, and he averages 68 minutes a game when he plays.
Montenegro take 14.07 shots a game and hit 4.5 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.
- Montenegro to Win8/15Add to slip
Montenegro come in on W W W D W L, and at home they have scored 1.73 a game and conceded 1.45 across 11 matches. They have won 10 of their last 20 overall, drawing 2.
Armenia average 0.95 scored and 2.50 conceded. The venue splits project 2.37 against 1.25, which puts Montenegro at about 62% to win, against 19% for the draw.
- Both Teams to Score5/6Add to slip
Both teams have scored in 11 of Montenegro's last 20 matches and 11 of Armenia's. Montenegro concede 1.65 a game and Armenia 2.50.
On the venue splits the projection is 2.37 against 1.25, which puts both teams scoring at about 60%.
- Montenegro to Win and Both Teams to Score12/5Add to slip
Two things have to land, and the numbers support both: Montenegro to win is about 62% and both teams scoring about 60%. Montenegro score 1.45 a game and concede 1.65, and Armenia have scored in 11 of their last 20.
bet365 price the combination at 12/5.
- Correct Score 2-115/2Add to slip
On the venue splits this projects Montenegro 2.37 against Armenia 1.25, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 9.0%.
Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Montenegro, which is where the board has the match too.
- Over 2.5 Goals7/10Add to slip
Montenegro have gone past 2.5 goals in 65% of their last 20 matches and Armenia in 55%, with 85% and 85% going past 1.5.
Montenegro average 1.45 scored and 1.65 conceded, Armenia 0.95 and 2.50. On the venue splits that projects 2.37 against 1.25, about 3.6 goals in the match and 65% for over 2.5.
Northern Ireland vs Georgia Tips
- G. Kochorashvili 1+ Shot on Target9/4Add to slip
Giorgi Kochorashvili has had a shot on target in 4 of his last 10 for Georgia, at 0.44 per 90 across 1,021 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.
Georgia take 11.93 shots a game and hit 3.87 on target. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 31% implied by 9/4.
- G. Mikautadze Anytime Goalscorer12/5Add to slip
Georges Mikautadze has scored in 4 of his last 10 for Georgia, at 0.75 per 90 across 836 minutes, and he averages 70 minutes a game when he plays.
Georgia score 1.35 a game. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 29% implied by 12/5.
- E. Galbraith to be Carded15/8Add to slip
Ethan Galbraith has been booked in 4 of his last 10 for Northern Ireland, at 0.33 per 90 across 1,087 minutes, and he averages 72 minutes a game when he plays.
Northern Ireland pick up 1.9 cards a game and there are 3.65 in their matches. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 35% implied by 15/8.
- L. Lochoshvili 1+ Foul CommittedTBCbet365
Luka Lochoshvili has committed a foul in 8 of his last 10 for Georgia, at 1.23 per 90 across 1,024 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.
Northern Ireland hold 36.4% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.
- Northern Ireland to Win31/20Add to slip
Northern Ireland have won 9 of their last 20, drawing 4, and at home they have scored 1.44 a game and conceded 0.22 across 9 matches.
Georgia average 1.35 scored and 1.30 conceded. The venue splits project 1.49 against 1.05, which puts Northern Ireland at about 44% to win, against 26% for the draw.
- Correct Score 1-011/2Add to slip
On the venue splits this projects Northern Ireland 1.49 against Georgia 1.05, and 1-0 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 11.5%.
Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Northern Ireland, which is where the board has the match too.
Romania vs Sweden Tips
- V. Gyökeres Anytime Goalscorer21/20Add to slip
Viktor Gyökeres has scored in 7 of his last 10 for Sweden, at 0.67 per 90 across 1,218 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.
Sweden score 1.85 a game. That is about 70% on his own record, against the 49% implied by 21/20.
- N. Stanciu to be Carded4/1Add to slip
Nicolae Stanciu has been booked in 3 of his last 10 for Romania, at 0.37 per 90 across 731 minutes, and he averages 66 minutes a game when he plays.
Romania pick up 1.76 cards a game and there are 4.47 in their matches. That is about 30% on his own record, against the 20% implied by 4/1.
- Both Teams to Score4/7Add to slip
Both teams have scored in 12 of Romania's last 20 matches and 15 of Sweden's. Romania concede 1.65 a game and Sweden 1.85.
On the venue splits the projection is 2.20 against 1.58, which puts both teams scoring at about 69%.
- Correct Score 1-215/2Add to slip
On the venue splits this projects Romania 2.20 against Sweden 1.58, and 1-2 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 7.3%.
Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Sweden, which is where the board has the match too.
- Over 2.5 Goals8/13Add to slip
Romania have gone past 2.5 goals in 70% of their last 20 matches and Sweden in 65%, with 85% and 95% going past 1.5.
Romania average 1.80 scored and 1.65 conceded, Sweden 1.85 and 1.85. On the venue splits that projects 2.20 against 1.58, about 3.8 goals in the match and 70% for over 2.5.
Ukraine vs Hungary Tips
- D. Szoboszlai 2+ ShotsTBCbet365
Dominik Szoboszlai has had 2 or more shots in 9 of his last 10 for Hungary, at 2.53 per 90 across 1,776 minutes, and he averages 89 minutes a game when he plays.
Hungary take 15.1 shots a game and hit 4.5 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.
- Ukraine to Win31/20Add to slip
Ukraine have won 10 of their last 20, drawing 4, and at home they have scored 1.22 a game and conceded 1.22 across 9 matches.
Hungary average 1.20 scored and 1.35 conceded. The venue splits project 1.46 against 1.28, which puts Ukraine at about 39% to win, against 26% for the draw.
- Correct Score 1-013/2Add to slip
On the venue splits this projects Ukraine 1.46 against Hungary 1.28, and 1-0 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 9.6%.
Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Ukraine, which is where the board has the match too.
Today's Nations League Tips
Nothing matches both filters.
Why this bet
Antonijs Černomordijs has committed a foul in 9 of his last 10 for Latvia, at 1.52 per 90 across 1,187 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.Cyprus hold 49.75% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.Why this bet
Ioannis Pittas has had 3 or more shots in 9 of his last 10 for Cyprus, at 3.63 per 90 across 966 minutes, and he averages 80 minutes a game when he plays.Cyprus take 12.69 shots a game and hit 4.44 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.Why this bet
Cyprus have won 6 of their last 20, drawing 5, and at home they have scored 1.67 a game and conceded 1.56 across 9 matches.Latvia average 0.55 scored and 1.30 conceded. The venue splits project 1.45 against 0.96, which puts Cyprus at about 54% to win, against 27% for the draw.Why this bet
On the venue splits this projects Cyprus 1.45 against Latvia 0.96, and 1-0 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 12.7%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Cyprus, which is where the board has the match too.Why this bet
Matty Cash has had a shot on target in 6 of his last 10 for Poland, at 1.11 per 90 across 895 minutes, and he averages 75 minutes a game when he plays.Poland take 16.53 shots a game and hit 6.29 on target. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 40% implied by 6/4.Why this bet
Kerim Alajbegović has had a shot on target in 6 of his last 10 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, at 1.19 per 90 across 905 minutes, and he averages 65 minutes a game when he plays.Bosnia & Herzegovina take 13.65 shots a game and hit 4.59 on target. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 48% implied by 11/10.Why this bet
Edin Džeko has been booked in 3 of his last 10 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, at 0.3 per 90 across 912 minutes, and he averages 76 minutes a game when he plays.Bosnia & Herzegovina pick up 2.29 cards a game and there are 3.94 in their matches. That is about 30% on his own record, against the 20% implied by 4/1.Why this bet
Nikola Katić has been booked in 3 of his last 10 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, at 0.3 per 90 across 1,197 minutes, and he averages 86 minutes a game when he plays.Bosnia & Herzegovina pick up 2.29 cards a game and there are 3.94 in their matches. That is about 30% on his own record, against the 25% implied by 3/1.Why this bet
Bosnia & Herzegovina win 4.24 corners a game and Poland 5.59, with 1.76 and 2.76 of those in the first half.That leaves about 10 in the match, a 65% chance of 9 or more against the 55% implied by 5/6.Why this bet
Ivan Šunjić has committed a foul in 9 of his last 10 for Bosnia & Herzegovina, at 2.9 per 90 across 839 minutes, and he averages 65 minutes a game when he plays.Poland hold 49.76% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.Why this bet
Robert Lewandowski has had a shot in 7 of his last 10 for Poland, at 3.31 per 90 across 896 minutes, and he averages 69 minutes a game when he plays.Poland take 16.53 shots a game and hit 6.29 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.Why this bet
Both teams have scored in 15 of Bosnia & Herzegovina's last 20 matches and 12 of Poland's. Bosnia & Herzegovina concede 1.20 a game and Poland 1.40.On the venue splits the projection is 1.80 against 1.34, which puts both teams scoring at about 65%.Why this bet
On the venue splits this projects Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.80 against Poland 1.34, and 1-2 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 7.3%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Poland, which is where the board has the match too.Why this bet
Bosnia & Herzegovina have gone past 2.5 goals in 50% of their last 20 matches and Poland in 55%, with 85% and 85% going past 1.5.Bosnia & Herzegovina average 1.70 scored and 1.20 conceded, Poland 1.75 and 1.40. On the venue splits that projects 1.80 against 1.34, about 3.1 goals in the match and 57% for over 2.5.Why this bet
Adrien Rabiot has committed 2 or more fouls in 6 of his last 10 for France, at 1.63 per 90 across 1,101 minutes, and he averages 79 minutes a game when he plays.Belgium hold 56.25% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 52% implied by 10/11.Why this bet
Timothy Castagne has committed 2 or more fouls in 4 of his last 10 for Belgium, at 1.3 per 90 across 1,316 minutes, and he averages 73 minutes a game when he plays.France hold 61.8% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 36% implied by 7/4.Why this bet
Kylian Mbappé has had 3 or more shots in 9 of his last 10 for France, at 5.77 per 90 across 1,233 minutes, and he averages 77 minutes a game when he plays.France take 18.25 shots a game and hit 6.85 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.Why this bet
Kevin De Bruyne has had a shot on target in 7 of his last 10 for Belgium, at 1.6 per 90 across 1,292 minutes, and he averages 76 minutes a game when he plays.Belgium take 19.1 shots a game and hit 7.1 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.Why this bet
Both teams have scored in 11 of France's last 20 matches and 10 of Belgium's. France concede 1.00 a game and Belgium 0.85.On the venue splits the projection is 1.56 against 1.82, which puts both teams scoring at about 59%.Why this bet
On the venue splits this projects France 1.56 against Belgium 1.82, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.0%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs France, which is where the board has the match too.Why this bet
France have gone past 2.5 goals in 70% of their last 20 matches and Belgium in 60%, with 85% and 85% going past 1.5.France average 2.30 scored and 1.00 conceded, Belgium 2.95 and 0.85. On the venue splits that projects 1.56 against 1.82, about 3.4 goals in the match and 65% for over 2.5.Why this bet
Moise Kean has scored in 6 of his last 10 for Italy, at 0.99 per 90 across 730 minutes, and he averages 66 minutes a game when he plays.Italy score 2.05 a game. That is about 60% on his own record, against the 50% implied by Evens.Why this bet
Alessandro Bastoni has been booked in 5 of his last 10 for Italy, at 0.5 per 90 across 1,270 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.Italy pick up 1.7 cards a game and there are 3.65 in their matches. That is about 50% on his own record, against the 23% implied by 10/3.Why this bet
Kerem Aktürkoğlu has been booked in 3 of his last 10 for Türkiye, at 0.31 per 90 across 1,162 minutes, and he averages 68 minutes a game when he plays.Türkiye pick up 1.9 cards a game and there are 3.6 in their matches. That is about 30% on his own record, against the 20% implied by 4/1.Why this bet
Italy win 5.85 corners a game and Türkiye 6.65, with 3.05 and 2.9 of those in the first half.That leaves about 12 in the match, a 71% chance of 10 or more against the 56% implied by 4/5.Why this bet
Arda Güler has had 2 or more shots in 8 of his last 10 for Türkiye, at 3.23 per 90 across 1,447 minutes, and he averages 80 minutes a game when he plays.Türkiye take 15.4 shots a game and hit 4.75 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.Why this bet
Italy have won 12 of their last 20, drawing 3, and at home they have scored 2.11 a game and conceded 1.33 across 9 matches.Türkiye average 1.85 scored and 1.45 conceded. The venue splits project 1.86 against 1.56, which puts Italy at about 56% to win, against 22% for the draw.Why this bet
On the venue splits this projects Italy 1.86 against Türkiye 1.56, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 8.6%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Italy, which is where the board has the match too.Why this bet
Italy have gone past 2.5 goals in 55% of their last 20 matches and Türkiye in 65%, with 85% and 75% going past 1.5.Italy average 2.05 scored and 1.30 conceded, Türkiye 1.85 and 1.45. On the venue splits that projects 1.86 against 1.56, about 3.4 goals in the match and 63% for over 2.5.Why this bet
Nikola Krstović has had a shot on target in 9 of his last 10 for Montenegro, at 1.55 per 90 across 1,221 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.Montenegro take 14.07 shots a game and hit 4.5 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.Why this bet
Stevan Jovetić has had a shot in 9 of his last 10 for Montenegro, at 2.87 per 90 across 753 minutes, and he averages 68 minutes a game when he plays.Montenegro take 14.07 shots a game and hit 4.5 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.Why this bet
Montenegro come in on W W W D W L, and at home they have scored 1.73 a game and conceded 1.45 across 11 matches. They have won 10 of their last 20 overall, drawing 2.Armenia average 0.95 scored and 2.50 conceded. The venue splits project 2.37 against 1.25, which puts Montenegro at about 62% to win, against 19% for the draw.Why this bet
Both teams have scored in 11 of Montenegro's last 20 matches and 11 of Armenia's. Montenegro concede 1.65 a game and Armenia 2.50.On the venue splits the projection is 2.37 against 1.25, which puts both teams scoring at about 60%.Why this bet
Two things have to land, and the numbers support both: Montenegro to win is about 62% and both teams scoring about 60%. Montenegro score 1.45 a game and concede 1.65, and Armenia have scored in 11 of their last 20.bet365 price the combination at 12/5.Why this bet
On the venue splits this projects Montenegro 2.37 against Armenia 1.25, and 2-1 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 9.0%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Montenegro, which is where the board has the match too.Why this bet
Montenegro have gone past 2.5 goals in 65% of their last 20 matches and Armenia in 55%, with 85% and 85% going past 1.5.Montenegro average 1.45 scored and 1.65 conceded, Armenia 0.95 and 2.50. On the venue splits that projects 2.37 against 1.25, about 3.6 goals in the match and 65% for over 2.5.Why this bet
Giorgi Kochorashvili has had a shot on target in 4 of his last 10 for Georgia, at 0.44 per 90 across 1,021 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.Georgia take 11.93 shots a game and hit 3.87 on target. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 31% implied by 9/4.Why this bet
Georges Mikautadze has scored in 4 of his last 10 for Georgia, at 0.75 per 90 across 836 minutes, and he averages 70 minutes a game when he plays.Georgia score 1.35 a game. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 29% implied by 12/5.Why this bet
Ethan Galbraith has been booked in 4 of his last 10 for Northern Ireland, at 0.33 per 90 across 1,087 minutes, and he averages 72 minutes a game when he plays.Northern Ireland pick up 1.9 cards a game and there are 3.65 in their matches. That is about 40% on his own record, against the 35% implied by 15/8.Why this bet
Luka Lochoshvili has committed a foul in 8 of his last 10 for Georgia, at 1.23 per 90 across 1,024 minutes, and he averages 85 minutes a game when he plays.Northern Ireland hold 36.4% of the ball, which is where the fouls come from. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.Why this bet
Northern Ireland have won 9 of their last 20, drawing 4, and at home they have scored 1.44 a game and conceded 0.22 across 9 matches.Georgia average 1.35 scored and 1.30 conceded. The venue splits project 1.49 against 1.05, which puts Northern Ireland at about 44% to win, against 26% for the draw.Why this bet
On the venue splits this projects Northern Ireland 1.49 against Georgia 1.05, and 1-0 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 11.5%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Northern Ireland, which is where the board has the match too.Why this bet
Viktor Gyökeres has scored in 7 of his last 10 for Sweden, at 0.67 per 90 across 1,218 minutes, and he averages 87 minutes a game when he plays.Sweden score 1.85 a game. That is about 70% on his own record, against the 49% implied by 21/20.Why this bet
Nicolae Stanciu has been booked in 3 of his last 10 for Romania, at 0.37 per 90 across 731 minutes, and he averages 66 minutes a game when he plays.Romania pick up 1.76 cards a game and there are 4.47 in their matches. That is about 30% on his own record, against the 20% implied by 4/1.Why this bet
Both teams have scored in 12 of Romania's last 20 matches and 15 of Sweden's. Romania concede 1.65 a game and Sweden 1.85.On the venue splits the projection is 2.20 against 1.58, which puts both teams scoring at about 69%.Why this bet
On the venue splits this projects Romania 2.20 against Sweden 1.58, and 1-2 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 7.3%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Sweden, which is where the board has the match too.Why this bet
Romania have gone past 2.5 goals in 70% of their last 20 matches and Sweden in 65%, with 85% and 95% going past 1.5.Romania average 1.80 scored and 1.65 conceded, Sweden 1.85 and 1.85. On the venue splits that projects 2.20 against 1.58, about 3.8 goals in the match and 70% for over 2.5.Why this bet
Dominik Szoboszlai has had 2 or more shots in 9 of his last 10 for Hungary, at 2.53 per 90 across 1,776 minutes, and he averages 89 minutes a game when he plays.Hungary take 15.1 shots a game and hit 4.5 on target. There is no price up for this one yet, so there is nothing to measure the record against — worth a look when the market opens.Why this bet
Ukraine have won 10 of their last 20, drawing 4, and at home they have scored 1.22 a game and conceded 1.22 across 9 matches.Hungary average 1.20 scored and 1.35 conceded. The venue splits project 1.46 against 1.28, which puts Ukraine at about 39% to win, against 26% for the draw.Why this bet
On the venue splits this projects Ukraine 1.46 against Hungary 1.28, and 1-0 is the single likeliest scoreline that comes out of it at about 9.6%.Correct score is the widest market on the coupon, so this is not a value call - it is the scoreline our numbers land on most often, and it backs Ukraine, which is where the board has the match too.
Add All 10 to Betslip approx 53,164.38Some of these are from the same match, so this opens as a bet builder. bet365 does not allow every combination within one game.How Our Nations League Predictions Work
Every Nations League tip on this page is produced the same way: we calculate our own probability for a market from the underlying record — a team’s scoring and defensive rates, a player’s goal or shot rate over recent games — and compare it directly to the probability implied by the bookmaker’s price. A selection is only published when our figure shows genuine value against the market. Everything else is left out. It’s a disciplined, stats-led approach rather than a set of hunches — and it’s especially useful in international football, where casual opinion and reputation often drag prices away from the numbers.
Nations League Best Bets by Market
However you like to bet on the Nations League, our stats-based selections cover the main markets:
- Bet builder tips — combine result, goals and player markets into one bet for each tie, built from the stats.
- Accumulator tips — our best Nations League and cross-competition selections combined at a bigger price.
- Shots on target tips — our shots-based player angles, useful when big nations field attacking line-ups against weaker opposition.
Betting on the Nations League: What to Look For
The Nations League rewards a different approach to club football. Squad rotation and motivation vary hugely — a top nation may rest players in a dead rubber, while a smaller side fighting promotion or survival plays at full tilt, so the group context matters as much as the names. The league structure creates stakes most friendlies lack: promotion and relegation between Leagues A, B, C and D, plus qualification pathways, mean sides are genuinely playing for something. And mismatches are common — the format pits strong nations against weaker ones, which shapes goals, handicap and shots markets. Our previews weigh all of this alongside the stats.
Nations League Free Bets
New customers can claim a welcome offer to put towards the matchday. Compare the best free bets on our football free bets page — with offers up to £50 from a range of bookmakers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best Nations League tips this matchday? Our latest Nations League tips and best bets are shown at the top of this page, updated for every matchday with our selection and the probabilities behind it for each fixture we bet.
How do you make your Nations League predictions? We calculate our own probability for each market from team and player records, then compare it to the bookmaker’s implied probability, publishing a selection only where our figure shows genuine value.
How does the UEFA Nations League work? Nations are split into four leagues (A, B, C and D) by strength, then into groups. Teams play home-and-away group fixtures, with promotion and relegation between the leagues, and the top league’s group winners advancing to the Nations League finals. It also feeds into World Cup and European Championship qualifying.
When is the Nations League on? The Nations League is played across international windows through the season — typically in the autumn and spring breaks from club football — with the finals staged at the end of the cycle.
Are your Nations League tips free? Yes — all our Nations League tips and predictions are completely free.
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