Premier League Tips from our A.I Predictions Model and the Betting Edge

Our free Premier League tips cover every gameweek – best bets, bet builders, accumulators and pundit predictions for all the big fixtures, each backed by the stats. Every selection on this page carries two numbers: our probability and the market’s. That comparison is the whole method, and it is the only reason to read us rather than anyone else.

Every betting price is a probability in disguise. A shot at 10/11 is the bookmaker saying 52%; a card at 3/1 is the bookmaker saying 25%. We work out the same number independently and publish both, so you can see exactly where we disagree with the market and by how much.

Our figure comes from the player’s own record rather than from opinion. For a shots or fouls line we count how often he has cleared it in his last 6 matches and check the rate per 90 minutes behind it. For a team market we use both sides’ last 20. Where a rate comes off a small sample we pull it towards a positional baseline before quoting it, because 4 goals in 266 minutes is a hot streak rather than a rate.

A selection needs three things to appear here. A 40% chance or better on our figure, a price of 4/6 or longer, and a gap to the market of no more than 20 points — because when our number sits far above the bookmaker’s, the likelier explanation is that ours is wrong.

Premier League Betting Tips from the Prediction Model