Last Updated on 21/02/2026 by Andy Clark
Man City v Newcastle Predictions, Betting Tips and Bet Builder – Premier League Match Preview
It’s a big one on Saturday night as Man City welcome Newcastle as they look to make up ground on Arsenal at the top of the Premier League. Below you will find our Man City vs Newcastle betting tips, match predictions and a 14/1 bet builder for the Etihad Stadium showdown.
Key Stats – Man City v Newcastle
- Man City are unbeaten in their last 21 Premier League home games against Newcastle, winning the last 16 in a row
- Erling Haaland is averaging 1.81 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season
- Man City have scored at least two goals in 11 of their last 12 home matches against Newcastle in all competitions
- Newcastle have lost their last 12 meetings at the Etihad Stadium
- Sandro Tonali has been booked five times in all competitions this season, including in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg against City
- Man City beat Newcastle 5-1 over two legs in the Carabao Cup semi-final, winning 2-0 and 3-1
Man City Form and Match Preview
Pep Guardiola’s side have won 16, drawn five and lost five so far this season and are second in the league, five points behind Arsenal with a game in hand.
City arrive into this game in excellent shape, having gone seven matches unbeaten across all competitions. Their most recent Premier League outing was a commanding 3-0 home win over Fulham, and they beat Salford City 2-0 in the FA Cup last weekend. Crucially, Arsenal have shown signs of vulnerability, dropping points in draws at Wolves and Brentford, meaning a City win on Saturday night would cut the gap at the top to just two points before the North London Derby on Sunday. The pressure is firmly on, but City look well placed pile the pressure on Arsenal.
Newcastle Form and Match Preview
Newcastle have had a very mixed season, sitting 10th in the Premier League with 10 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses so far this season. They’re six points outside of the top six.
Newcastle arrive off the back of a superb midweek result, hammering Qarabag 6-1 in the Champions League knockout play-off first leg, with Anthony Gordon grabbing four goals. They also ended a four-game Premier League winless run with a 2-1 victory at Tottenham in their last league outing, so confidence is growing. However, the Etihad has been a brutal venue for them in recent years, and they head into this one without Bruno Guimaraes, who is expected to be sidelined until April with a hamstring injury. His absence significantly weakens their midfield and their ability to control possession against a City side hitting their stride.
Man City vs Newcastle Bet Builder Tip
Man City v Newcastle Betting Tips and Best Bets
- Man City to win (1/2)
- Erling Haaland over 1.5 shots on target (11/20)
- Both teams to score (3/5)
- Sandro Tonali to be booked (14/5)
Best Bet Builder Tip – Man City to Win
I can’t see past a Man City win this weekend as they look to strengthen their position in the title race and are within two points of Arsenal. City have won seven of their last 10 in all competitions, losing two and drawing one. Newcastle won 6-1 against Qarabag in the Champions League during the week, and have won their last three in all competitions. That said, they have only won four of their last 10, taking us back to mid-January. City and Newcastle have faced off twice in recent weeks, over two legs in the semi-final of the Carabao Cup, with City winning 5-1 over two legs – 2-0 and 3-1. I think they’ll come out on top again this weekend.
The head-to-head record at the Etihad makes for sobering reading for Newcastle fans. City are unbeaten in their last 21 Premier League home games against the Magpies, winning 16 consecutively. Opta’s supercomputer gives City a 58.4% chance of winning, and with the title race as tight as it is, Guardiola’s side will be fully motivated from the first whistle. At 10/21, it is not the most generous price, but it forms a solid foundation for the bet builder.
Erling Haaland Over 1.5 Shots on Target (11/20)
City striker Erling Haaland is the league’s top scorer once again this season, with 22 goals in 26 Premier League matches this season. Those 22 goals take him to 29 in all competitions this season, with seven in eight in the Champions League. In the league, he has had a massive 92 shots, with 45 of them being on target, an average not far shy of two per game. I think he’s decent odds to have two or more here.
The numbers back this up comprehensively. According to StatMuse, Haaland is averaging 1.81 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, and has registered seven shots on target across his last five league appearances. He has also scored 13 of his 22 league goals at home, underlining just how dangerous he is at the Etihad. Against a Newcastle side missing Guimaraes in midfield and carrying a heavy schedule of fixtures, he looks nailed on to trouble their backline repeatedly on Saturday night.
Alternative Bet – Erling Haaland to Score (4/7)
Bizarrely, taking Haaland to score at 4/7 reduces the odds of this bet builder from 14/1 to 13/1. With the number of goals he’s scored in a City shirt, I’d never bet against him scoring in any game.
Both Teams to Score (3/5)
Despite thinking City will come out on top, I do think Newcastle will also score. After scoring six in midweek, they’ll be full of confidence in front of goal. They have scored 19 in their last 10 matches in all competitions, and scored in one of their last two matches against City, in that Carabao Cup two-legged clash. City have conceded in five of their last 10, but I do think Newcastle will manage a goal against them here.
It is also worth noting that over 2.5 goals have been scored in each of Newcastle’s last four Premier League matches, and Man City have scored in eight of their last ten home league games. Anthony Elanga came off the bench to score for Newcastle in the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final, demonstrating that they do carry a goal threat even against City. With Newcastle needing to attack given the scoreline they will likely be chasing, both teams to score at 3/5 looks a reasonable addition to the builder.
Sandro Tonali to Be Booked (14/5)
I think Sandro Tonali is good odds to be carded here at 14/5. The Italian midfielder has been carded five times in all competitions this season, with three cards in the league, one in the Champions League and one in the Carabao Cup, with the latter coming in the first leg of that semi-final against City. He has made 17 fouls in the league, and I think he will make a few against a difficult City side this weekend. He’s good odds to be carded at 14/5.
With Guimaraes absent, Tonali will be expected to carry an even greater defensive burden in midfield, potentially increasing his foul count in what is set to be a high-intensity contest. According to Footystats, Tonali commits 0.86 fouls per 90 minutes in the league this season, and with the added responsibility he faces here without his midfield partner, expect that number to rise on Saturday. At 14/5, this feels like a standout value selection in the bet builder.
Man City v Newcastle Predictions Summary
To summarise our Man City vs Newcastle betting tips and predictions for Saturday night’s Premier League showdown:
Our best bet is Man City to win, supported by a dominant home record against Newcastle and City’s seven-game unbeaten run. Our 14/1 bet builder combines a City win with Haaland over 1.5 shots on target, both teams to score, and Sandro Tonali to be booked.
If you prefer a safer alternative, swapping Haaland over 1.5 shots on target for Haaland to score at 4/7 actually only reduces the odds to 13/1, making it a very small sacrifice for significantly greater confidence in the selection.
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More from Thatsagoal in February
As well as our Premier League predictions for all the upcoming fixtures, we also have you covered for bet builder tips ahead of the weekend action. We will pick out the best bets for each match and add them to a bet builder. Once you have picked out your football tips, you will need some free bets to use and there are plenty available at the moment, including the Midnite welcome offer and BetGoodwin’s welcome bonus for new customers.
If you have used all the well-known bookmakers before, then look through the list of new UK bookies who also have sign-up bonuses.
If horse racing is more your thing, our Cheltenham 2026 tips are in full swing with predictions already made for most of the 28 races. Cheltenham free bets are starting to emerge as well, and there is a quick list of offers below, which you should start signing up for and saving the free bets for Cheltenham week, starting Tuesday, 10th March.
Midnite £30 Cheltenham sign-up offer.
BetGoodwin £10 Cheltenham sign-up offer.
bet365 £30 Cheltenham sign-up offer.
BetVictor £30 Cheltenham sign-up offer.
Jake has been on the thatsagoal.com team for over 5 years, and he is the person responsible for the bet builders across the Premier League and Champions League. His background in journalism means the articles are perfectly written, and each prediction is explained with stats and reasoning to back them up. There have been countless winners from Jake, including a 66/1 win in the FA Cup final when Manchester City were beaten by Crystal Palace.
