A look back at the 2026 World Cup from a bookmaker’s point of view, drawing on bet365 trader Steve Freeth’s end-of-tournament betting review after Spain edged Argentina 1-0 in the final.
Spain 1-0 Argentina
It was no classic, but few bookmakers will have grumbled about the outcome. According to bet365’s trading review, Argentina never got going, and Spain needed extra time to finally settle the final in their favour.
The goal owed much to Spain’s bench: Nico Williams and Ferran Torres, on for Baena and Oyarzabal, combined to break the deadlock — a result that once again brought bet365’s Sub On Play On offer into play, and one Freeth flagged as the book’s best of the tournament. The game also turned on an Enzo Fernandez red card, the Argentine — a 33/1 shot to be sent off — dismissed for a lunge on Pau Cubarsi that helped Spain wear down a stubborn opponent.
Looking Ahead to 2030
Spain opened the 2026 tournament as 9/2 favourites before a patchy group stage saw France overtake them at the top of the market. They grew into the role, and bet365 make them favourites again for 2030, boosted by their status as co-hosts.
Freeth’s review acknowledges the book was burned by writing Lionel Messi off before this year’s final, which tempers the 12/1 offered about Argentina going one better in 2030 — though the suggestion is that even Messi, at 43, may struggle to run a tournament by then. Fellow co-hosts Portugal are floated as potential improvers after moving on from Roberto Martinez and Cristiano Ronaldo, while England are quoted at 8/1 as the dust settles on another near-miss.
France 4-6 England
The third-place play-off delivered the drama the final lacked. England drifted to 10/3 once the team news landed, but it proved no-Kane, no-Bellingham, no-problem: Declan Rice — a 33/1 first-goalscorer shot — struck inside three minutes, and it was somehow 4-0 by half-time. bet365 reported small stakes landing on that half-time scoreline at 250/1, plus a cluster of pre-game bets on a Bukayo Saka hat-trick at 200/1, before the game finished a remarkable 6-4. The Sub On Play On offer paid out again, rewarding backers of Cherki, Doue and Eze whose replacements found the net.
The Trading Story of the Tournament
In the outright market, bet365 say Portugal were their only real loser — plenty of punters, Freeth included, trusted Martinez to deliver despite the Ronaldo factor. Spain’s win over Portugal en route to the final made the outright a comfortable book from the last 16 onwards.
The group stage was tougher on the layers, who lost money overall — though it could have been worse. Portugal’s failure to beat Colombia in their Group K decider wrecked a 156/1 12-fold of favourites, sparing the book a bigger hit. The single worst result, per the review, was England’s 3-2 win over Mexico at a raucous Azteca — Jude Bellingham’s brace and a Harry Kane penalty landing hard, with Julian Quinones and Raul Jimenez also on target for the hosts.
In the Top Goalscorer market, the play-off team news pushed money towards Kylian Mbappe, cut from 10/11 to 4/6 and, after a nervy first half, into as short as 1/25. His nearest rival, Messi, drifted to 12/1 by the time the final kicked off.
The Award Markets
The Golden Ball market saw Rodri drift to 66/1 early on before his form turned; Messi was prominent late in the betting, and the market moved sharply in the closing stages — worth checking the confirmed winner before relying on it. Freeth concedes he called the Young Player award wrong, having questioned the shortening of Pau Cubarsi from an opening 20/1 on the basis that defenders rarely take the honour. In goal, pre-tournament noise about David Raya starting ahead of Unai Simon faded as Simon justified his place with seven clean sheets behind an excellent defence, having been no bigger than 5/1 for the Golden Glove.
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Courtesy of bet365 News. Odds referenced were correct at the time of bet365’s review and are subject to change. 18+. Please gamble responsibly. GambleAware.org · GamCare.org.uk.
Andy is the founder, owner and editor of thatsagoal.com, with over 20 years of experience in betting on sports. He has a keen eye for stats, particularly when looking at players to be carded, and these form a large part of the bet builder tips you see on the site. As well as creating daily football tips, Andy also keeps thatsagoal updated with all the best bookmaker promotions and offers for our readers.
