Frank Lampard is the 9/2 favourite to be the first Premier League manager sacked in the 2026/27 season.
The Coventry City boss heads a 20-man market, ahead of Nottingham Forest’s Oliver Glasner and Hull City’s Sergej Jakirović, who are both 11/2.
The 2026/27 season starts on Friday 21 August 2026, when Arsenal host Coventry City at the Emirates. Paddy Power are currently the only firm pricing the first-sacking market. We’ve priced it up properly below — including what the odds say once the bookmaker’s margin is stripped out, which is not the same thing at all.
Quick answer
| Favourite | Frank Lampard (Coventry City) |
| Best price | 9/2 |
| True probability | 12.7% |
| Fair price without margin | 7/1 |
| Managers priced | 20 |
| Book percentage | 143.43% |
| Bookmaker’s margin | 43.43% |
| Season starts | Friday 21 August 2026 |
| Managers appointed this summer | 8 of 20 |
| Our value pick | Oliver Glasner (Nottingham Forest) at 11/2 |
| Odds correct as of | 26 July 2026 |
Next Premier League manager to be sacked odds 2026/27
Every manager in the market, with the bookmaker’s price, the raw implied probability, and the true probability once the margin is removed.
| # | Manager | Club | Odds | Implied % | True % | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frank Lampard | Coventry City | 9/2 | 18.2% | 12.7% | 7/1 |
| 2 | Oliver Glasner | Nottingham Forest | 11/2 | 15.4% | 10.7% | 17/2 |
| 3 | Sergej Jakirović | Hull City | 11/2 | 15.4% | 10.7% | 17/2 |
| 4 | Roberto De Zerbi | Tottenham Hotspur | 15/2 | 11.8% | 8.2% | 11/1 |
| 5 | Eddie Howe | Newcastle United | 9/1 | 10.0% | 7.0% | 14/1 |
| 6 | Michael Carrick | Manchester United | 11/1 | 8.3% | 5.8% | 16/1 |
| 7 | Gary O’Neil | Ipswich Town | 12/1 | 7.7% | 5.4% | 18/1 |
| 8 | Daniel Farke | Leeds United | 14/1 | 6.7% | 4.6% | 20/1 |
| 9 | Alvaro Arbeloa | Fulham | 14/1 | 6.7% | 4.6% | 20/1 |
| 10 | Marco Rose | AFC Bournemouth | 14/1 | 6.7% | 4.6% | 20/1 |
| 11 | Xabi Alonso | Chelsea | 14/1 | 6.7% | 4.6% | 20/1 |
| 12 | Régis Le Bris | Sunderland | 18/1 | 5.3% | 3.7% | 25/1 |
| 13 | David Moyes | Everton | 22/1 | 4.3% | 3.0% | 33/1 |
| 14 | Pierre Sage | Crystal Palace | 22/1 | 4.3% | 3.0% | 33/1 |
| 15 | Fabian Hürzeler | Brighton & Hove Albion | 25/1 | 3.8% | 2.7% | 33/1 |
| 16 | Enzo Maresca | Manchester City | 33/1 | 2.9% | 2.1% | 50/1 |
| 17 | Keith Andrews | Brentford | 40/1 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 50/1 |
| 18 | Unai Emery | Aston Villa | 40/1 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 50/1 |
| 19 | Andoni Iraola | Liverpool | 40/1 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 50/1 |
| 20 | Mikel Arteta | Arsenal | 50/1 | 2.0% | 1.4% | 66/1 |
Odds: Paddy Power, correct as of 26 July 2026. 18+. Odds subject to change.
Who is favourite to be the first Premier League manager sacked?
Frank Lampard is the favourite at 9/2. The Coventry City manager won the Championship title last season and takes the club into the top flight for the first time since 2000/01.
The three promoted managers occupy three of the top seven places in the betting. Lampard is 9/2, Hull City’s Sergej Jakirović is 11/2, and Ipswich Town’s Gary O’Neil is 12/1. That’s the market doing what it always does in July: pricing the category rather than the individual.
Eight of the twenty managers were appointed in June or July 2026. Andoni Iraola, Pierre Sage, Gary O’Neil, Enzo Maresca, Marco Rose, Xabi Alonso, Oliver Glasner and Alvaro Arbeloa have all been in the job a matter of weeks. Only Mikel Arteta, appointed in December 2019, has been in post since before 2021.
That churn is the single most important fact about this market. Forty per cent of the league starts the season with a manager who has no credit in the bank, no relationship with the board built on results, and no run of form to point back to when September goes badly.
What do the odds actually say once you remove the bookmaker’s margin?
This is the part almost nobody shows you, and it changes how the market reads.
Add up the implied probability of all 20 managers and you get 143.43%. A fair book would total 100%. That extra 43.43% is the bookmaker’s margin — the built-in edge that guarantees a profit if the money is spread evenly.
That margin is huge, and it matters. It’s roughly 2.2% of value taken out per runner. On a two-way market like match result you’d expect a margin of 4–6%. On a 20-runner outright special in July, before a ball has been kicked, 43% is what you pay for the privilege of betting early.
Strip it out and every price gets significantly longer:
- Lampard’s 9/2 implies an 18.2% chance. His true probability is 12.7% — a fair price of 7/1.
- Glasner and Jakirović look like 15.4% shots at 11/2. Their true probability is 10.7%, or 17/2.
- Eddie Howe at 9/1 reads as 10%. He’s really a 7.0% chance, a fair 14/1.
- Mikel Arteta at 50/1 is a 1.4% chance, fair odds 66/1.
The practical takeaway: you are being asked to accept roughly 30% less than a fair price on every selection in this market. That doesn’t make it unbettable — early markets are where the genuine mispricings live — but it does mean you need a strong opinion, not a vague hunch. If you can’t articulate why a manager is more likely to go than the market thinks, the margin will eat you.
When is the first Premier League manager usually sacked?
The first sacking of a Premier League season almost always lands between late August and the end of October. It very rarely happens in the opening fortnight, and it has never once waited until the new year.
| Season | First manager out | Club | Date | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Nuno Espírito Santo | Nottingham Forest | September 2025 | 4 |
| 2024/25 | Erik ten Hag | Manchester United | 28 October 2024 | 9 |
| 2022/23 | Scott Parker | AFC Bournemouth | 30 August 2022 | 4 |
| 2021/22 | Xisco Muñoz | Watford | October 2021 | 7 |
| 2017/18 | Frank de Boer | Crystal Palace | September 2017 | 4 |
| 1993/94 | Peter Reid | Manchester City | 26 August 1993 | 4 |
Peter Reid’s dismissal 12 days into the 1993/94 season remains the earliest in Premier League history.
Two patterns are worth carrying into your bet. First, four games is the danger number — three of the six sackings above came after exactly four league matches, which suggests boards give a new season a month before they panic. That points to the weekend of 19–20 September 2026 as the first real pressure point of this campaign.
Second, the first man out is usually not the pre-season favourite. Ten Hag, Parker, Muñoz and de Boer were all priced up as mid-market runners in July. Nuno Espírito Santo had taken Forest into Europe for the first time since 1995 and was one of the last managers anyone expected to go. The first sacking is normally driven by an ownership crisis or a catastrophic start, and neither of those is visible in a July market.
Third, and specific to this season: eight managers started the summer with no credit in the bank. A board that appointed someone in June has spent nothing on them yet and has no sunk cost to defend. Historically, the managers who survive a bad September are the ones with a season of goodwill behind them — Howe at Newcastle, Emery at Villa, Farke at Leeds. Forty per cent of this league doesn’t have that. On the base rates, an early sacking looks more likely this season than most, not less.
Which manager is the best bet?
Oliver Glasner at 11/2 is the standout. Not because of Glasner, but because of the job.
Nottingham Forest have got through five managers since the start of the 2025/26 season. Nuno Espírito Santo went in September 2025. Ange Postecoglou lasted 39 days — the second-shortest permanent reign in Premier League history — and was gone in October. Sean Dyche followed in February 2026. Vitor Pereira departed this month. Glasner is the fifth name on that door inside eleven months.
Owner Evangelos Marinakis has demonstrated, repeatedly and expensively, that he will act on a bad month. No other club in this league has a comparable recent base rate. The market has Glasner at 11/2 alongside Jakirović, which prices him as “a manager under some pressure” rather than “the manager of the most volatile job in English football.” Forest also open at home to Leeds and then travel to Liverpool — a start that could easily read one point from two after the opening fortnight.
The two factors compound. Glasner isn’t only at the club with the shortest fuse in the division; he arrived on 6 July with nothing banked there — no good run to point back to, no relationship with Marinakis built on results. Every previous Forest manager who got sacked at least had a few months of history to argue with. He won’t.
Frank Lampard at 9/2 looks short. He won the Championship, he signed a new deal to 2029 this summer, and title-winning promoted managers historically get a full season. Coventry’s opening two fixtures are Arsenal away and Hull City at home — one where nothing is expected, one that is genuinely winnable. There is a version of this where Coventry are dreadful and Lampard goes in October, but 9/2 is not the price for it.
Michael Carrick at 11/1 is the interesting one further down. He was appointed at Manchester United in January 2026 on a deal to the end of that season. Any manager whose long-term position was still an open question in the spring starts a new campaign with less credit than the price suggests.
Enzo Maresca at 33/1 is a fair price on a difficult job. Following Pep Guardiola is the hardest brief in the league, but Manchester City are a patient club with a three-year contract on the table and no history of early dismissals.
Who has the hardest start in 2026/27?
Opening fixtures shape this market more than anything else in July. Here’s how the shortest-priced managers begin.
| Manager | Club | Matchweek 1 | Matchweek 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Lampard | Coventry City | Arsenal (a) | Hull City (h) |
| Oliver Glasner | Nottingham Forest | Leeds United (h) | Liverpool (a) |
| Sergej Jakirović | Hull City | Man United (h) | Coventry City (a) |
| Roberto De Zerbi | Tottenham Hotspur | Brentford (a) | Newcastle United (a) |
| Eddie Howe | Newcastle United | Liverpool (h), | Tottenham (h) |
| Gary O’Neil | Ipswich Town | Sunderland (h) | Manchester United (a) |
The fixture that jumps out is Coventry City v Hull City on Saturday 29 August. Two promoted sides, both managers in the top three of the sack market, meeting in matchweek two. Whoever loses that spends September under real pressure — and the loser’s price will collapse the moment it finishes.
Newcastle’s start is brutal on paper: Liverpool at home, then Tottenham. Eddie Howe at 9/1 already reflects a season that fell short of expectations, and two defeats to open would put genuine heat on a manager the club have historically backed.
Which Premier League clubs need a new manager?
No Premier League club currently has a managerial vacancy. All 20 clubs have a permanent manager in place for the start of the 2026/27 season.
When a job does come open, we price up the next-manager market for that club and link it here.
| Club | Manager | Appointed | Sack odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Mikel Arteta | 22 December 2019 | 50/1 |
| Aston Villa | Unai Emery | 5 November 2022 | 40/1 |
| AFC Bournemouth | Marco Rose | 1 July 2026 | 14/1 |
| Brentford | Keith Andrews | 27 June 2025 | 40/1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Fabian Hürzeler | 15 June 2024 | 25/1 |
| Chelsea | Xabi Alonso | 1 July 2026 | 14/1 |
| Coventry City | Frank Lampard | 28 November 2024 | 9/2 |
| Crystal Palace | Pierre Sage | 15 June 2026 | 22/1 |
| Everton | David Moyes | 11 January 2025 | 22/1 |
| Fulham | Alvaro Arbeloa | 7 July 2026 | 14/1 |
| Hull City | Sergej Jakirović | 11 June 2025 | 11/2 |
| Ipswich Town | Gary O’Neil | 23 June 2026 | 12/1 |
| Leeds United | Daniel Farke | 4 July 2023 | 14/1 |
| Liverpool | Andoni Iraola | 4 June 2026 | 40/1 |
| Manchester City | Enzo Maresca | 29 June 2026 | 33/1 |
| Manchester United | Michael Carrick | 13 January 2026 | 11/1 |
| Newcastle United | Eddie Howe | 8 November 2021 | 9/1 |
| Nottingham Forest | Oliver Glasner | 6 July 2026 | 11/2 |
| Sunderland | Régis Le Bris | 1 July 2024 | 18/1 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Roberto De Zerbi | 31 March 2026 | 15/2 |
Where can you bet on next manager sacked odds?
The 2026/27 market isn’t widely available yet. Paddy Power have priced it up early; most firms will follow in the fortnight before the season starts on 21 August, and all of them will price it the moment a job comes under real pressure.
That makes now the time to get accounts open rather than to chase a bet. Manager markets move fast — prices can halve in an hour on a single press conference — and the punters who get the value are the ones already funded and logged in when the news breaks.
These are the accounts we’d have ready for football specials and outright markets.
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Not sure which to open? Our guide to the best UK betting sites compares the majors on offers, odds and how they treat winning accounts.
How does the next manager sacked market work?
The rules matter more here than in almost any other football market, and they differ between firms. Read the settlement terms before you bet.
Sacked vs “to leave their post”. These are two different markets. “First manager to be sacked” usually settles only on a dismissal. “First manager to leave their post” also covers resignations and mutual consent departures. A manager who walks before he’s pushed can win one and lose the other.
Mutual consent. Most clubs announce departures as “by mutual consent” to limit compensation. Nearly all firms treat this as a qualifying departure on “leave their post” markets, but not all treat it as a sacking.
Caretakers and interims. A caretaker taking temporary charge does not normally trigger settlement, and interim managers are usually excluded from the market entirely.
Dead heats. If two managers leave on the same day, dead heat rules typically apply and your returns are halved.
A manager leaving for another job. If a manager resigns to take a different position, this usually counts on “leave their post” markets. Again, check the terms.
Latest updates
26 July 2026: Paddy Power price up the 2026/27 first-sacking market. Frank Lampard is 9/2 favourite, with Oliver Glasner and Sergej Jakirović both 11/2. No other firm has the market open yet.
7 July 2026: Fulham appoint Alvaro Arbeloa.
6 July 2026: Nottingham Forest appoint Oliver Glasner following Vitor Pereira’s departure — Forest’s fifth manager since the start of the 2025/26 season.
1 July 2026: Chelsea appoint Xabi Alonso and Bournemouth appoint Marco Rose. Frank Lampard signs a new Coventry City contract to 2029.
29 June 2026: Manchester City confirm Enzo Maresca as Pep Guardiola’s successor on a three-year contract.
23 June 2026: Ipswich Town appoint Gary O’Neil after Kieran McKenna stepped down.
15 June 2026: Crystal Palace appoint Pierre Sage to replace Oliver Glasner.
4 June 2026: Liverpool appoint Andoni Iraola following Arne Slot’s dismissal after a disappointing second campaign at Anfield.
FAQs
Who is favourite to be the first Premier League manager sacked in 2026/27? Frank Lampard of Coventry City is the 9/2 favourite. Once the bookmaker’s margin is removed, his true probability is 12.7%, which equates to a fair price of 7/1.
When does the 2026/27 Premier League season start? Friday 21 August 2026, when Arsenal host Coventry City at the Emirates Stadium at 20:00. The season ends on Sunday 30 May 2027.
How many managers are usually sacked in a Premier League season? Between six and ten in a typical campaign. In 2025/26, six permanent managers were sacked and a seventh, Enzo Maresca, left Chelsea by mutual consent.
When is the first Premier League manager usually sacked? Between late August and the end of October. Three of the last six opening sackings came after exactly four league games, which points to mid-to-late September as the first real pressure point.
How many Premier League managers are new for the 2026/27 season? Eight of the twenty were appointed in June or July 2026: Andoni Iraola (Liverpool), Pierre Sage (Crystal Palace), Gary O’Neil (Ipswich Town), Enzo Maresca (Manchester City), Marco Rose (Bournemouth), Xabi Alonso (Chelsea), Oliver Glasner (Nottingham Forest) and Alvaro Arbeloa (Fulham). Only Mikel Arteta has been in post since before 2021.
Which Premier League clubs need a new manager? None. All 20 Premier League clubs have a permanent manager in place for the start of the 2026/27 season. The most recent appointment was Alvaro Arbeloa at Fulham on 7 July 2026.
Which bookmakers offer next manager sacked odds? Paddy Power are the only firm currently pricing the 2026/27 market. Most major bookmakers, including bet365, Betfred, BoyleSports, BetVictor and Coral, will price it in the fortnight before the season starts.
What is the bookmaker’s margin on this market? The current book totals 143.43%, meaning a margin of 43.43%. That’s high even for a 20-runner outright, and it means every price is roughly 30% shorter than a fair price.
Does a manager leaving by mutual consent count as being sacked? It depends on the market. “First manager to leave their post” markets almost always include mutual consent departures. “First manager to be sacked” markets may not. Check the settlement terms before betting.
More football odds and tips
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Andy is the founder, owner and editor of thatsagoal.com, with over 20 years of experience in betting on sports. He has a keen eye for stats, particularly when looking at players to be carded, and these form a large part of the bet builder tips you see on the site. As well as creating daily football tips, Andy also keeps thatsagoal updated with all the best bookmaker promotions and offers for our readers.
