Fenerbahce vs Lyon Bet Builder Tips, Predictions & Player Stats

Our Fenerbahce vs Lyon bet builder tips lead with Talisca 3+ shots, in a Champions League play-off where one forward has taken more shots than any player we have covered this season.

Anderson Talisca has hit 7, 6, 6, 3, 5 and 8 shots in his last six matches for Fenerbahce, clearing three every single time, at 5.13 per 90 minutes.

Lyon arrive with their attack dismantled: Endrick, Roman Yaremchuk, Afonso Moreira and Orel Mangala have all left the club this summer, and Pavel Sulc is injured. Corentin Tolisso is the only Lyon player who still appears in the shots, shots on target and goalscorer tables.

What is the prediction for Fenerbahce vs Lyon?

Fenerbahce are favourites at home, scoring 2.5 goals a game there against Lyon’s 1.5 on the road. We are not publishing a percentage, because both squads have changed so heavily since those matches that the team goal data describes sides that no longer exist.

That is worth explaining rather than glossing over. Four Lyon attackers have left since the matches in our sample were played, and Fenerbahce have lost Fred alongside a long injury list. A model fed with those numbers would be describing two teams that will not take the field on Tuesday.

The player numbers are a different matter, because they belong to individuals rather than squads. Talisca’s shot rate travels with him. That is why every selection on this page is a player market.

On the leagues themselves, France carries a UEFA country coefficient of 38.618 against Turkiye’s 30.300 — a raw ratio of 1.28, damped to about 1.13. That is a modest gap and it shades things towards Lyon, but nothing like enough to offset the players they have lost.

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What are the Fenerbahce vs Lyon bet builder tips?

Our four-leg bet builder is Talisca 3+ shots, Tolisso 1+ shot on target, Guendouzi 2+ fouls drawn and over 3.5 total cards. Every leg is a market all bookmakers price, and referee Sven Jablonski averages 3.81 yellows a game, second highest in our coverage.

Every figure covers each player’s last 20 league matches, converted to a rate per 90 minutes. Fenerbahce’s numbers come from the Super Lig and Lyon’s from Ligue 1. Players with fewer than 250 minutes are excluded.

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Fenerbahce vs Lyon betting tips

Six singles, for anyone who wants a straight price rather than a bet builder. Each is ranked on how often the player has actually cleared the line, not on his average.

#	Selection	The evidence	Odds
1	Talisca 3+ shots	7, 6, 6, 3, 5, 8 — cleared three in all six	1/4
2	Tolisso 1+ shot on target	1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1 — on target in all six	27/25 with VirginBet
3	Guendouzi 2+ fouls drawn	0, 3, 3, 2, 4, 2 — cleared two in five of six	TBC
4	Talisca anytime goalscorer	1.03 goals per 90, scored in four of six	13/10 with BetVictor
5	Over 3.5 total cards	Jablonski averages 3.81 a game, both sides run high	TBC
6	Kluivert to be carded	0.60 per 90, booked in three of six	TBC

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Which player takes the most shots in Fenerbahce vs Lyon?

Talisca takes 5.13 shots per 90 minutes for Fenerbahce, the highest rate we have recorded this season. He has hit 7, 6, 6, 3, 5 and 8 in his last six matches, clearing three every time. Mason Greenwood is next on 4.10 per 90.

The consistency is what separates him. Plenty of forwards carry a high average built on one or two outlying matches; Talisca’s floor across those six games is three shots, and his ceiling is eight.

Player	Club	Shots per 90	Last six	3+ shots
Talisca	Fenerbahce	5.13	7, 6, 6, 3, 5, 8	6 of 6
Mason Greenwood	Fenerbahce	4.10	4, 1, 3, 1, 1, 3	3 of 6
Lois Openda	Lyon	3.01	3, 1, 0, 0, 2, 0	1 of 6
Marco Asensio	Fenerbahce	2.92	0, 2, 0, 6, 1, 2	1 of 6
Corentin Tolisso	Lyon	2.14	5, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2	1 of 6

Greenwood’s average is the one to be careful with. At 4.10 per 90 he looks like a second Talisca, and the sequence says otherwise — his recent form reads 4, 1, 3, 1, 1, 3, with the average carried by 6 and 7 shot matches further back in the window. He has had at least one shot in all six, so 1+ is the line his data actually supports.

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Who is most likely to score in Fenerbahce vs Lyon?

Talisca is the standout at 1.03 goals per 90 minutes, the only figure above one in the fixture. He has scored 1, 0, 3, 0, 1 and 2 in his last six, finding the net in four. Tolisso leads Lyon on 0.61 per 90 despite being a midfielder.

That last point is the story of the away side. Lyon have lost Endrick, Roman Yaremchuk and Afonso Moreira this summer and Pavel Sulc is injured, which leaves their goalscorer market resting on a central midfielder.

Marco Asensio is the name to avoid. His 0.41 goals per 90 reads respectably and his last six matches read 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0. He has not scored in any of them. The average is carried entirely by games outside this window, and his shot count is erratic too at 0, 2, 0, 6, 1, 2.

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Why have Lyon been weakened so badly?

Four of Lyon’s five best attacking numbers belong to players who have left the club this summer, and a fifth is injured. Endrick’s loan ended, Afonso Moreira joined Leverkusen for £29.5m, Roman Yaremchuk went to Olympiacos and Orel Mangala to Getafe.

Player	Departed to	What Lyon lost
Afonso Moreira	Leverkusen, £29.5m	3.26 fouls drawn per 90 — the highest rate in the fixture
Endrick	Loan ended, Real Madrid	3.68 shots, 1.91 on target per 90
Roman Yaremchuk	Olympiacos	2.57 shots, 0.64 goals per 90
Orel Mangala	Getafe	1.75 fouls per 90
Pavel Sulc	Injured, knee	2.20 shots per 90

What remains is Corentin Tolisso and very little else. He is the only Lyon player who still appears in the shots, shots on target and goalscorer tables, and he is a midfielder.

Lois Openda inherits the centre forward role with 600 minutes behind him. His 3.01 shots per 90 comes from an average of 35 minutes a game across mostly substitute appearances, so that rate should be treated carefully. His two most recent outings were full 90s and he took three shots and then one — a thin but more relevant sample.

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Who is injured for Fenerbahce against Lyon?

Fenerbahce are without eight players through injury — Sofyan Amrabat, Anthony Musaba, Caglar Soyuncu, Romelu Lukaku, Jayden Oosterwolde, Mert Gunok, Dorgeles Nene and Vedat Muriqi — with Ederson suspended. Lyon are missing Pavel Sulc and Mads Bidstrup, and Talisca and Tyler Morton are both doubtful.

Two names need confirming before kick-off. Talisca is listed with a knock in the injury data but is named in the expected line-up, and he carries two of our four builder legs plus the biggest number on the page. Tyler Morton is listed with a groin injury and is also named to start for Lyon.

Both are flagged as doubtful in our tables rather than removed, so their numbers stay visible with the reason attached. Check the confirmed team sheet before backing anything involving Talisca.

Oosterwolde’s absence matters beyond the defence. He led the fixture for cards at 0.41 per 90 across 1525 minutes, and with him out the card market thins considerably.

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Which players are most likely to be booked?

Referee Sven Jablonski averages 3.81 yellow cards a game, the second highest of the twenty-one officials we have covered. Fenerbahce’s matches produce 5.4 cards across both sides and Lyon’s 4.15, so the fixture and the appointment point the same way.

That makes the total the strongest card angle rather than any individual. On a 3.81 average, over 2.5 cards reads 73% and over 3.5 reads 53%.

Referee	Cards per game	Referee	Cards per game
Fotias	4.43	Donohue	3.64
Jablonski	3.81	Kavanagh	3.51
Barbu	3.74	Oliver	3.49

One caveat worth including. Jablonski’s Champions League figure is 2.33 across three matches, well below his 4.00 in the Bundesliga and 5.00 in World Cup qualifying. Three games is not a sample, and European officials are often more lenient in the earlier rounds, but it is the competition this fixture sits in.

Among individuals, Ruben Kluivert is the pick at 0.60 cards per 90 for Lyon, booked in three of his last six. The individual table has been thinned by absences: Jayden Oosterwolde led the fixture on 0.41 per 90 and is out injured, Nicolas Tagliafico posts 0.46 and is not in the Lyon eleven, and Oguz Aydin’s 0.68 comes from 264 minutes and a single booking.

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What time is Fenerbahce vs Lyon and where is it played?

Fenerbahce vs Lyon kicks off at 20:00 BST on Tuesday 18 August 2026 at the Sukru Saracoglu Stadium in Istanbul, in the first leg of a Champions League play-off round tie. The winner over two legs reaches the league phase. The match is live on Amazon Prime.

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Why do we use rates per 90 minutes rather than totals?

A total rewards whoever has played the most. A rate per 90 minutes puts a substitute and a first-choice starter on the same scale, so 20 shots in 400 minutes is correctly read as more threatening than 25 in 1,400.

The trade-off is that a small sample produces a wild rate, which is why we exclude anyone below 250 minutes and state the minutes behind every figure on this page. It is also why we publish the match-by-match sequence alongside the average — an average tells you the middle, and the sequence tells you whether the player actually clears the line.

Lois Openda is the clearest example in this fixture. His 3.01 shots per 90 is a real number and it comes from 35-minute cameos, so it describes a substitute rather than the starter he will be on Tuesday.

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More Football Tips and Guides

The Talisca selection above is one of several player shot markets we cover. Our shots on target tips page ranks every fixture on shots and shots on target per 90 minutes, and the Guendouzi pick sits alongside the rest of our tackles and fouls tips.

For the full bet builder, and the same treatment applied across every match on the card, see our bet builder tips. Everything we publish across all competitions sits on the football tips hub.