Ipswich vs Sunderland Prediction
This is the tightest match on the Premier League card. The market has Ipswich at 35%, the draw at 29% and Sunderland at 36% once the bookmaker’s margin is stripped out — as close to a three-way coin flip as the weekend offers.
We are not publishing our own percentage, and it is worth explaining why. Ipswich played nineteen of their last twenty matches in the Championship and Sunderland seventeen of twenty in the Premier League, so every comparison on this page spans two levels of opposition.
We ran the adjustment two ways. Applying the multipliers we measured from fifteen promoted sides gives Sunderland 55%. Regressing both records towards the Premier League average instead gives Ipswich 52%. The two bracket the market from opposite sides and neither lands near it, so the market is the better estimate here and we would rather say so than pick whichever number reads well.
The corner and goals markets are where this page earns its keep. Sunderland take 3.70 corners a game, the lowest team count in our data, against Ipswich’s 6.05.
Ipswich vs Sunderland Betting Tips
1. Sunderland Under 4.5 Team Corners. This has landed in 13 of their last 20. They take 3.70 corners a game, the lowest team count of any side in our data, against Ipswich’s 6.05.
2. Over 1.5 Goals. Sixteen of Ipswich’s last 20 have cleared it. Sunderland concede 1.80 a game away from home and their goalkeeper carries the worst goals prevented figure we have measured at -0.24.
3. Ipswich to Win or Draw. Seventeen of their last 20 ended in a win or a draw, though that record was built in the Championship and should be read with the league gap in mind.
Ipswich vs Sunderland Stats
| Market | Ipswich | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.75 | 1.10 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.15 | 1.50 |
| Won, drawn, lost | 10-7-3 | 7-5-8 |
| Clean sheets | 8 of 20 | 5 of 20 |
| Failed to score | 2 of 20 | 7 of 20 |
| Shots on target | 4.95 | 3.75 |
| Corners per game | 6.05 | 3.70 |
| Cards in match | 4.85 | 4.50 |
| Own cards per game | 2.40 | 2.30 |
| Goals prevented | +0.09 | -0.24 |
Ipswich’s figures were recorded in the Championship and Sunderland’s in the Premier League. Both cover the last 20 league matches.
Ipswich vs Sunderland Key Stats
- 2.57 yellow cards a game for referee Farai Hallam, third lowest of the 26 officials we have covered, and 0.04 reds — the lowest of all
- 7 of 20 — matches in which Sunderland have failed to score
- 3.70 corners a game for Sunderland, the lowest team corner count in our data
- 6.05 corners a game for Ipswich, nearly double their opponents’
- -0.24 goals prevented for Sunderland’s goalkeeper, the worst figure we have measured
- 35% and 36% — the market’s split between the two sides, the closest on the Premier League card
- 2 of 20 — matches in which Ipswich have failed to score
Ipswich vs Sunderland Team News
Ipswich are without goalkeeper David Button with a calf injury, and Azor Matusiwa is doubtful with a muscle problem due back on 25 August.
Sunderland are missing Aji Alese with a thigh injury and Omar Alderete with a knee problem. Thomas Meunier and Nordi Mukiele are both doubtful with knocks, leaving four defenders unavailable or in question.
Ipswich vs Sunderland Corners and Cards
Corners show the widest gap on the page. Ipswich take 6.05 a game and 3.40 of them in the first half; Sunderland manage 3.70 and 2.15. Sunderland’s figure is the lowest team corner count of any side in our data, and the difference is large enough that a team corners line is the cleaner bet than a match total.
The card market looks strong until you check the referee. Ipswich’s matches produce 4.85 cards across both sides and Sunderland’s 4.50, a combined 4.67 that would make over 3.5 a 69% call.
Farai Hallam books 2.57 players a game, the third lowest of the twenty-six officials we have covered, and shows 0.04 red cards — roughly one in twenty-five matches, the lowest rate in our data. On his average, over 3.5 cards falls to 26%.
We follow the referee here. Ipswich’s card record was built in the Championship against Championship officials, and a promoted side’s disciplinary numbers need the same scepticism as their goal numbers. Under 4.5 cards is the better side of this market.
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Andy Clark is a British betting analyst and the founder and editor of Thatsagoal, a UK sports betting comparison site operated by Thatsagoal Media Limited. He has over 20 years of betting experience across football and horse racing, and personally tests every bookmaker account reviewed on the site.
